SIO: CORENTIN - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

90S INVEST 160120 1800 15.1S 76.1E SHEM 30 1000

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 361
WTIO30 FMEE 201824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3
2.A POSITION 2016/01/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 75.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/21 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2016/01/21 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/01/22 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/01/22 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2016/01/23 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/24 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/01/25 18 UTC: 27.2 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTER, BUT THERE WAS LITTLE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD
ORGANIZATION, AS DEPICTED BY THE LAST MICRO-WAVE PICTURES (SSMIS-F-18
AT 1419Z).
IT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ACCURATELY THE LLCC.
THE UPPER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, CONVERGENCE IS BETTER ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE,
BUT LOWER POLEWARD, DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONIC
BELT.
THE SYSTEM HAS A GENERAL MOVEMENT WESTWARD, UNDER ALMOST OPPOSITE
STEERING FLOWS IN THE LOWER LEVELS (NORTHERLY MONSOON FLOW, AND
EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY TRADE FLOW).
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK, BUT THE EQUATORIAL UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD DECREASE.
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD, AHEAD OF A POLAR TROUGH, THE LOW WILL DRAW
BENEFIT FROM GOOD UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DEEPEN
MORE RAPIDLY. CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE
IN THE MID LEVELS IN ITS EAST, AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON
FRIDAY, AND BEND SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE OHC DECREASE SOUTH OF 26S. THE LOW
MAY WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
MOVEMENT AND THE DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM UP TO SATURDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREAD IS INCREASING FROM SUNDAY.=
NNNN

[stormwise]

The center of a symmetry of the cirrus outflow looks to be displaced to the south of the low-level circulation center, typical shem 'monsoon depression'.

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 494
WTIO20 FMEE 210630
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2016
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/01/2016 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 74.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SECTOR.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
35-40 KT IN THIS QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/01/21 AT 18 UTC:
16.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2016/01/22 AT 06 UTC:
18.3 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
NNNN

[wxman57]

Looks like winds are at least 50 kts. The ASCAT pass only caught part of the storm, but there were plenty of 50kt winds.

[stormwise]

Interesting one dvorak technique does not handle these systems well, until clear dvorak patterns and rules apply

[stormwise]

This is now a hurricane/Typhoon/Severe cyclone, which ever name you want to call it by.

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 534
WTIO30 FMEE 220016 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CORENTIN)
2.A POSITION 2016/01/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 73.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE
DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 430 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/22 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/01/23 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2016/01/23 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2016/01/24 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/01/24 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/25 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/26 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2016/01/27 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
NNNN

[stormwise]

http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?product ... pan=-7200s


Stirring the plankton up is about all this storm is doing.