SPAC: Post-Tropical-WINSTON

[Exalt]

Recent HWRF forecast pins a tertiary (if you count the first max at cat 4) bottom-out at 921 mb at around 45 hours (I would even suspect a possible come back a bit lower into Cat. 5 territory), and I wouldn't be surprised about that either especially with current satellite presentation.

Also, in regards to my comment about Winston possibly becoming annular, I never said he was in the first place. I was merely stating the cyclone's extremely symmetrical CDO and compact circulation, that, if paired with a correct ERC, definitely could have turned Winston into an annular cyclone.

[WeatherGuesser]

Legitimate media, not the rumor mill:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/natio ... _dead.html

http://www.fijitimes.com/section.aspx?s=Local

[stormwise]

DEVASTATION BY TC WINSTON IN EASTERN DIVISION
By Fijian Government · Updated about an hour ago
The following images were taken by the NZ Defence Airforce and were taken in Koro, Lau, Taveuni and Rabi.

The devastation of the damage to homes etc is enormous and a relief team that comprises of military personnel, health, rehab personnel are now on standby to provide relief support.

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set ... 024&type=3

[1900hurricane]

Looks like some dry air managed to work its way into the core while Winston was trying to restrengthen.

[Alyono]

This had better turn now, or its plowing into Vanauatu

[Alyono]

The 10 deaths so far have mainly been reported on Viti Levu. 7 in the north and 3 in Nadi. Also, it appears that only limited contact has been made with northern Fiji. Who knows what happened to the outer islands that took the full force

[Exalt]

Is there any chance of a tertiary landfall in eastern Australia? Forecasts predict Winston still being a moderate-weak tropical storm near Brisbane/Gold Coast, which could bring some minor trouble for them if tropical characteristics persist or if it transitions into a nasty low.

[stormwise]

Winston should begin the turn south in the near future,the front will have eroded the ridge.

.

[Alyono]

No word from many islands

http://fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=342668

[HurricaneBill]

Latest death toll I've heard on Twitter is 20.

[stormwise]

Many of the affected areas are still inaccessible going by media reports.

[mrbagyo]

Saw this incredible image from the Fijian Government fb page..

[Alyono]

Death toll has risen to 29. Koro has been leveled

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/ ... ises-to-29

[HurricaneBill]

Death toll has risen to 29. Koro has been leveled

http://www.radionz.co.nz/international/ ... ises-to-29

This is now Fiji's deadliest cyclone since Cyclone Meli killed 53 in 1979. It is also the SPAC's deadliest cyclone since Cyclone Uma killed 50 in Vanuatu in 1987.

[HurricaneBill]

JTWC has lowered Winston's peak intensity from 160KT to 155KT in the best track.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/SHEM/11P.WINSTON/trackfile.txt

[Darvince]

no they were doing so good for once

Also whoever did this needs a quick reality check

[1900hurricane]

JTWC has issued their last advisory on Winston.

[stormwise]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4y0zGr5WKbw[/youtube]

[HurricaneBill]

Damage is estimated to be around US$460 million. This makes Winston, by far, Fiji's costliest cyclone. The previous record was 1993's Cyclone Kina which caused US$110 million in damage. Like Winston, Kina tracked between the two main islands of Fiji. However, Kina tracked from west to east and was not as powerful.

Winston is also the costliest cyclone in the SPAC basin. The previous costliest was 2015's Cyclone Pam at US$360.4 million.

Although 2011's Cyclone Yasi caused US$3.5 billion in damage, the damage occurred while Yasi was in Australia's basin.

I think it's safe to say Winston will be retired.

[talkon]

Interestingly, JTWC are still tracking this as a subtropical depression.
SH, 11, 2016030212, , BEST, 0, 175S, 1479E, 20, 1007, SD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, WINSTON, ,