SPAC: Post-Tropical-WINSTON

[NotoSans]

somehow, there was just a surface report of 107 kt winds and 936mb

May I ask where are you getting these surface observations from? thx

btw, RSMC Nadi is up to 120kt/920hPa at 18Z.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 920HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
178.9W AT 191800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
120 KNOTS.

[1900hurricane]

Surprisingly enough, the eastern eyewall isn't as robust as I would expect for something this intense.

[NotoSans]

Seems that the eye directly passed through the Vanua Balavu island near 19Z. Unfortunately I'm only able to find three-hourly synoptic observations and we cannot know how low the pressure is inside the eye.

[1900hurricane]

[1900hurricane]

Does anyone know what CIMSS is doing to their ADT file and why they're doing it?

[CrazyC83]

Agreed on a T7.5 based on satellite. The CDG doesn't wrap all the way around consistently enough for T8.0.

Was that wind observation in the RMW? If so that would support about 924mb. But I have a feeling it is lower than that.

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone know what CIMSS is doing to their ADT file and why they're doing it?

Change of satellite from Himawari to GOES s likely to blame for the sudden drop of recent values.

[1900hurricane]

Does anyone know what CIMSS is doing to their ADT file and why they're doing it?

Change of satellite from Himawari to GOES s likely to blame for the sudden drop of recent values.

Some of the drop, sure, but that would not result in a greater than an entire T number drop. Just for reference, Nadi's ADT managed to work all the way up to an 8.0 CI exclusively on GOES-15. To me, it looks like either all the values were readjusted manually or they were run through a different algorithm.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like the northern eyewall - the RFQ - is heading directly over the northern island in Fiji shortly.

[1900hurricane]

It looks like the northern eyewall - the RFQ - is heading directly over the northern island in Fiji shortly.

The left-front quadrant would be the stronger one in the southern hemisphere.

[mrbagyo]

Radar image
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/

On satellite , Winston is a look alike of TC Monica

[mrbagyo]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/fiji-pounded-by-its-first-category-5-storm-on-record-tropical-cyclone

Interesting article about Winston, Fiji's 1st cat 5

[TheAustinMan]

Winston and the limb of the Earth along with Australia, Papua New Guinea, and the islands of the South Pacific as viewed from the Himawari 8 satellite.

[1900hurricane]

The eye looks to be warming pretty rapidly now. Himawari-8 has an eye temp of 12.04*C as of 2330Z.

[1900hurricane]

And with that warmer eye, JTWC has now analyzed Winston at T7.5.

Code: Select all

TPPS11 PGTW 200010

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON)

B. 19/2350Z

C. 17.19S

D. 179.82W

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET YIELDS 7.5. PT YIELDS 6.0 DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/1815Z  17.22S  178.75W  SSMS
   19/1916Z  17.22S  178.88W  SSMS
   19/2038Z  17.12S  179.12W  MMHS


   HART

[mrbagyo]

The eye looks to be warming pretty rapidly now. Himawari-8 has an eye temp of 12.04*C as of 2330Z.

IMO, we must also have a geostationary satellite devoted mainly for the Southern Hemisphere to eliminate this viewing angle concerns.

[stormwise]

Maybe more down stream problems , if the front does not catch Winston the ridge will likely rebuild under Winston and a track west will be almost certain.

[1900hurricane]

The eye looks to be warming pretty rapidly now. Himawari-8 has an eye temp of 12.04*C as of 2330Z.

IMO, we must also have a geostationary satellite devoted mainly for the Southern Hemisphere to eliminate this viewing angle concerns.

It's really not a latitude/Southern Hemisphere problem as much as it's a longitude problem. Winston is sitting pretty much on top of the International Dateline right now and there are no geostationary satellites in this area, with Himawari-8 to the west and GOES-15 to the east. The solution would be to put up a geostationary satellite over the Dateline to cover up the gap. I'm not sure what JMA's MTSAT-1R is doing these days, but with MTSAT-2 in reserve of Himawari-8, I think it would be a good option (barring money/politics/satellite rights of course).

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is going with 160 kt!

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Patricia recon and the structure, I would personally go with 170 kt.