SIO: URIAH - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

SIO: URIAH - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:43 pm

99S INVEST 160211 0000 10.3S 95.0E SHEM 30 1000
Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6S
97.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 101821Z 89 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BEING OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:04 am

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Uriah

Issued at 2:32 pm AWST Sunday 14 February 2016. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.
Image
0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#3 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:59 pm

If it crosses into the SWIO basin, will its name be changed to "Heep"? :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Darvince
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 184
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:25 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#4 Postby Darvince » Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:17 am

No. Cyclones are never renamed when they cross between any two basins anymore.

Ibág:
Image
0 likes   
:craz:

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:18 pm

Darvince wrote:No. Cyclones are never renamed when they cross between any two basins anymore.



I know. I was just kidding about a 1970s rock band.
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:35 pm

ZCZC 101
WTIO30 FMEE 170025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20152016
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (URIAH)
2.A POSITION 2016/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 81.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 410 SW: 440 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 330 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 170 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/02/17 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2016/02/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2016/02/18 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2016/02/19 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/02/19 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2016/02/20 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/02/21 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2016/02/22 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
THE LAST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THE PREMISE OF AN ELONGATED EYE
PATTERN. TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS CONFIMED BY THE 2045Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS NOW A CLOSED EYE.
TODAY URIAH'S TRACK SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BEND SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY WITH THE REBUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
EAST. FRIDAY, URIAH IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN BECAUSE OF THE BUILDING OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOW LARGE
SPREAD FROM FRIDAY EVENING, SUGGESTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE OTHER NWP
MODELS FORECAST A SOUTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY A BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES AND CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
ON THIS TRACK, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH A
WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ADDITIONNALY, THE BUILDING OF A NEW OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ON THE POLAR SIDE ALONG WITH GOOD OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN NEAR
80E, ARE LIKELY TO HELP THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING MORE RAPIDLY. FROM
THURSDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
NORTH-WESTERLY VWS, AND START THE WEAKENING, ACCENTUATED BY THE
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF 23-24S. MOREOVER, THE SLOW
MOTION FORECAST FROM FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOL THE
UNDERLYING SST AND INCREASE THE WEAKENING TREND.=
NNNN

Image


13S URIAH 160217 0000 17.9S 81.6E SHEM 105 944
Image
0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:34 pm

TPXS12 PGTW 170026

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH)

B. 17/0000Z

C. 17.69S

D. 81.62E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET YIELDS 4.5.
PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Feb 17, 2016 11:13 am

Man, Uriah is looking pretty good right now. Convection is still a little pulsing (although it has been getting steadier as time has gone on), but there is extensive cold medium grey in the CDO. Eye temp isn't quite warm medium grey (it is positive though), but it should be noted that Meteosat 7 isn't a particularly high resolution geostationary satellite and is viewing the somewhat small Uriah at a larger angle. Considering everything, I'd probably put intensity at 125-130 kt right now, which is in good agreement with ADT.

Image

With that said though, this is probably about peak intensity. Conditions quickly get more hostile beyond 20*S.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: SIO: URIAH - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Feb 17, 2016 7:17 pm

Cloud tops seem to be warming.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 FEB 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 19:59:11 S Lon : 79:11:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 922.6mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

Scene Type : EYE
0 likes   

User avatar
Darvince
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 184
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:25 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: SIO: URIAH - Post-Tropical

#10 Postby Darvince » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:46 am

bye
0 likes   
:craz:


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests