TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone YALO
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 1 issued 0701 UTC Thursday 25 February 2016
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 250728 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE YALO CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5S
155.4W AT 250600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BAND TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN PAST 24 HOURS. SST
AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW.DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.60 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 20.4S 154.6W MOV SE AT 06KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 21.1S 153.2W MOV ESE AT 07KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 22.0S 151.6W MOV SES AT 09KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 22.9S 150.3W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON YALO WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
251400 UTC.