South Pacific: Post-Tropical - Tropical Cyclone 16P

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cycloneye
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South Pacific: Post-Tropical - Tropical Cyclone 16P

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:48 pm

98P INVEST 160315 1800 16.0S 139.3E SHEM 30 999
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Re: South Pacific: INVEST 98P

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:51 pm

Very impressive system.

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Re: South Pacific: INVEST 98P

#3 Postby Alyono » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:55 pm

This is another cyclone without doubt. Radar showed an eye earlier, and WINDSAT showed 35 kt winds about 12 hours ago
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Low 1

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:17 pm

TCFA issued.
WTPS21 PGTW 152000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 139.1E TO 16.4S 141.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 151800Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 139.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
138.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND AIRPORT RADAR SITE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (31 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 999MB. BASED ON THE ORGANIZED LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162000Z.//
NNNN

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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Low 1

#5 Postby stormwise » Tue Mar 15, 2016 9:07 pm

Image
Small core cyclone without a doubt.
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 16P

#6 Postby NotoSans » Wed Mar 16, 2016 9:23 am

I'm shocked that BOM didn't name it.
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 16P

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 16, 2016 9:28 am

Last warning:

WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3S 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 141.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA AND STARTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON THE DETERIORATION OF THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND AND FULLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 16P

#8 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:11 am

NotoSans wrote:I'm shocked that BOM didn't name it.


The BoM (RSMC for the region) will not name a storm unless tropical storm force winds wrap more than half way around the center. Doesn't matter what the wind speed is in one quadrant (or two quadrants).
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Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 16P

#9 Postby stormwise » Thu Mar 17, 2016 5:04 am

NotoSans wrote:I'm shocked that BOM didn't name it.

https://youtu.be/d0vYL4WYc2k
Came across this image on YouTube today appears the cyclone intensified further as it was making landfall note the eye.

Image
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