SPAC: Tropical Disturbance 15F (INVEST 96P)

[cycloneye]

96P INVEST 160402 0600 14.4S 168.0E SHEM 15 1006

[cycloneye]

Not well organized so far.



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3S
177.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 177.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
FORMATIVE BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE AT
APPROXIMATELY 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A NARROW WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SHARPLY INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT IS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

Flooding in Fiji.

l

[jaguarjace]

TCFA issued



WTPS21 PGTW 042000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2S 179.4E TO 22.5S 171.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4S 179.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3S
177.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 179.9W, APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST
OF TONGA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041825Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH TIGHTLY CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, AND
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS
FROM NFFN INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 27 TO 32 KNOTS AS THE
SYSTEM PASSED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF 96P AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A SHORT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AS 96P BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VWS WITHIN A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052000Z.//
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