Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Post-Tropical

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stormwise
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#61 Postby stormwise » Fri May 20, 2016 7:20 pm

eastern jet flow surges likely causing explosive convective blowups.


Image
Unfortunately catastrophic flooding will likely be biggest problem with this TS.

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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#62 Postby Alyono » Fri May 20, 2016 9:48 pm

tidal surge is also going to be an issue as heights could be 5 to 8 feet.

Thinking this will have 70 mph winds at landfall
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#63 Postby Alyono » Fri May 20, 2016 10:21 pm

double face palm for IMD

Have a look at their forecast. They have it STATIONARY for 6 hours when it is moving at close to 15 kts!

Date/time(UTC) Position
(lat. °N/ long. °E)
Maximum sustained
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category of cyclonic
Disturbance
21-05-2016/0000 20.3/88.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
21-05-2016/0600 20.4/88.2 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
21-05-2016/1200 21.0/89.6 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
21-05-2016/1800 21.8/91.5 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
22-05-2016/0000 22.6/93.3 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
22-05-2016/0600 23.5/95.2 25-35 gusting to 45 Well-marked low
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#64 Postby stormwise » Sat May 21, 2016 12:33 am

Upazila Parishad,Subarna Char
2016-05-21 15:20:00.000000000
DEW POINT TEMPERATURE (C) 24.1
QFE (MB) 987.0
QFF (MB) 987.9


Already reporting 987.9 @ the surface.
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#65 Postby Alyono » Sat May 21, 2016 12:35 am

if that is accurate, we probably have a sub 980mb pressure. I feel better about increasing the winds in this somewhat based upon this ob

and IMD, LOOK AT THE DATA!. This is not a 992mb storm when we have obs indicating well below 990mb outside of the storm
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#66 Postby Alyono » Sat May 21, 2016 12:46 am

an eyewall is forming on Bangladesh radar. Glad this is coming onshore now and not closer to 0Z. Would have been much stronger had this waited until 0Z to strike
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#67 Postby Alyono » Sat May 21, 2016 12:54 am

990mb in Chittagong
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#68 Postby stormwise » Sat May 21, 2016 12:56 am

Image
IMD's data.
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#69 Postby Alyono » Sat May 21, 2016 1:39 am

pressure is falling like a brick
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#70 Postby Alyono » Sat May 21, 2016 2:18 am

Chittagong reporting a sustained 58 mph wind
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#71 Postby stormwise » Sat May 21, 2016 5:10 am

Sad situation unfolding
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#72 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 21, 2016 7:01 am

Roanu is now well inland and weakening rapidly.
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#73 Postby Alyono » Sat May 21, 2016 7:50 am

saw on twitter that 19 have died.

May go a lot higher as there are dams threatening to break
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Re: Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Cyclonic Storm

#74 Postby galaxy401 » Sat May 21, 2016 11:55 am

Death toll seems to be a wide range right now, from 20 deaths to as high as 90. Chances are, that is going up.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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