EPAC: INVEST 91E

[TheStormExpert]

Seems the La Niña is kicking in!

[Kingarabian]

ASCAT not showing a defined low but showing enough winds to support a TD. Also showed a 30kt barb.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems the La Niña is kicking in!

Probably yes, but I'd like to point out that it's rare to see an invest this far west in June, especially in inactive seasons.

[Kingarabian]

Don't want to get off topic... but it's not like this Nina is producing gorgeous storms for the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

Don't want to get off topic... but it's not like this Nina is producing gorgeous storms for the Atlantic.

It's only June 4th.

[Yellow Evan]

Don't want to get off topic... but it's not like this Nina is producing gorgeous storms for the Atlantic.

well it's June 4 but the ATL seems to have returned to it's 2011-12 self.

As for this invest itself, it seems to be becoming less organized, although it's clearly trying.

[NDG]

Don't want to get off topic... but it's not like this Nina is producing gorgeous storms for the Atlantic.

Lets compared apples to apples, compared to the last 2 strong El Ninos, the Atlantic has produced a lot more so far this season than this same time in '98 & '83.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is moving westward at
10 to 15 mph. Satellite data indicate that the circulation of the
system remains elongated, and the associated convection is not
signficantly better organized than yesterday. A tropical depression
could still form during the next couple of days before environmental
conditions become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Kingarabian]

Gonna be an interesting season. If the Atlantic is active then we can generally assume a quiet EPAC season. Looks like that's what is happening.

[supercane]

ABPZ20 KNHC 050505
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is moving
west-northwestward at around 10 mph. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has not become significantly better organized over the past
day or so, but a tropical depression could still form during the
next couple of days before environmental conditions become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are centered several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly
northeastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
likely later this weekend and early next week over portions of
southern Mexico and Guatemala.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[stormwise]

Models still giving 91E a reasonable chance to reach TS intensity.


5/3 split

[Kingarabian]

I dont know why. Almost looks finished.

[NDG]

Models still giving 91E a reasonable chance to reach TS intensity.


5/3 split

The crappy models are the only ones giving it a chance.

[cycloneye]

Finished.

Shower activity is limited in association with an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Development of this system appears
less likely while it moves west-northwestward into an area of
unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[RL3AO]

I'm not sure there will be enough storms to make up for all those 80 and 90 percents. Weird system.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this
system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days before
environmental conditions become less conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur while the system moves westward
during the next day or two before environmental conditions become
less conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[stormwise]

Low shear good upper-level divergence 30c sst and moisture and tilting west looks in a sweat spot atm.


tiny core.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all somehow develop this in about 5-7 days. By that time, the air should moisten and shear should stay low if the SHIPS output is correct.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912016  06/06/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    27    29    32    41    50    56    58    56    55    53    52
V (KT) LAND       25    25    27    29    32    41    50    56    58    56    55    53    52
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    25    26    27    30    34    39    43    43    42    42    43
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     2     3     4     3     3     4     4     3     8    12    11    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     2     1     0     0    -2     0     3     1    -5    -4     0
SHEAR DIR        131   110    74    80    62    71    47   165   215   173   168   145    95
SST (C)         28.9  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.4  28.4  28.5  28.6  28.7  28.9  29.1  29.1
POT. INT. (KT)   152   151   150   148   147   144   144   146   147   149   152   154   154
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     8     7     7     7     6     6     6     5
700-500 MB RH     41    41    42    43    44    47    48    50    51    51    47    47    47
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10     9     8     8     8     8     8     8     7     7     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR    45    39    31    24    19    22    19    31    39    53    66    84    93
200 MB DIV        37    29    30    21    11    43    37    37    44    34    20    38    58
700-850 TADV       0    -1    -3    -3    -2     0     1     3     5     4     1     3     3
LAND (KM)       1973  2033  2074  2103  2112  2128  2126  2092  2061  2031  1971  1913  1896
LAT (DEG N)      9.8   9.7   9.7   9.8  10.0  10.2  10.3  10.3  10.2  10.1  10.0   9.6   9.0
LONG(DEG W)    122.5 123.2 123.8 124.4 124.8 125.3 125.4 124.9 124.3 123.7 122.7 121.4 120.3
STM SPEED (KT)     7     6     6     5     4     2     1     3     3     4     6     6     6
HEAT CONTENT      42    37    35    33    29    26    26    28    31    33    39    59    46

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/  7      CX,CY:  -6/ -1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  534  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  27.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            1.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   7.  13.  20.  25.  28.  30.  31.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  11.  11.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   4.   7.   9.   9.   7.   5.   4.   3.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   2.   4.   7.  16.  25.  32.  33.  31.  30.  28.  27.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:    9.8   122.5

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST     06/06/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   124.6      40.3  to  144.5       0.81         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    35.2       0.0  to   75.9       0.46         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    27.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.30         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     3.7      18.9  to    1.4       0.87         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    25.6     -11.0  to  135.3       0.25         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   213.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.60         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     2.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.00           0.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     2.6%   20.6%    9.9%    3.2%    1.2%    8.0%    5.8%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.9%    6.9%    3.3%    1.1%    0.4%    2.7%    1.9%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST     06/06/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[RL3AO]

This looks like a tropical cyclone.