EPAC: INVEST 91E

[Kingarabian]

The one model super keen on its development is the GFS and doesn't show full development until 72 hours out.

[stormwise]

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/weatherview/index.html

This is closed off and likely now a bonafide TD.




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[Kingarabian]

Almost void of convection.

[cycloneye]

Yikes.What happened? Is a skeleton.

[RL3AO]

That area to the east of 91E looks much better!

[NDG]

The nice mid level vorticity that everyone was watching yesterday is dying away as it pushes WSW, I see the low level vorticity left behind naked near 9N & 113W. Convection to the east of it is approaching it, perhaps another mid level vorticity with it also so this may be the real deal if it gains latitude.
This is definitely not 2015, when cyclogenisis seemed to get going in a heart beat.

[Kingarabian]

GFS not quitting on it. Still shows a strong Cat 2. What a feat for the model if that indeed occurs when compared to other less bullish models.

[Kingarabian]

The nice mid level vorticity that everyone was watching yesterday is dying away as it pushes WSW, I see the low level vorticity left behind naked near 9N & 113W. Convection to the east of it is approaching it, perhaps another mid level vorticity with it also so this may be the real deal if it gains latitude.
This is definitely not 2015, when cyclogenisis seemed to get going in a heart beat.

Man it gets really hard to differentiate the mid levels and the lower levels. What do you look at to determine if a system has a true LLC?

[NDG]

The nice mid level vorticity that everyone was watching yesterday is dying away as it pushes WSW, I see the low level vorticity left behind naked near 9N & 113W. Convection to the east of it is approaching it, perhaps another mid level vorticity with it also so this may be the real deal if it gains latitude.
This is definitely not 2015, when cyclogenisis seemed to get going in a heart beat.

Man it gets really hard to differentiate the mid levels and the lower levels. What do you look at to determine if a system has a true LLC?

Shortwave IR loop, but the lower naked vorticity that I am looking at might be just rotating around a larger circulation, I see a lot of low level clouds near moving east towards the area of deep convection.

[Kingarabian]

The nice mid level vorticity that everyone was watching yesterday is dying away as it pushes WSW, I see the low level vorticity left behind naked near 9N & 113W. Convection to the east of it is approaching it, perhaps another mid level vorticity with it also so this may be the real deal if it gains latitude.
This is definitely not 2015, when cyclogenisis seemed to get going in a heart beat.

Man it gets really hard to differentiate the mid levels and the lower levels. What do you look at to determine if a system has a true LLC?

Shortwave IR loop, but the lower naked vorticity that I am looking at might be just rotating around a larger circulation, I see a lot of low level clouds near moving east towards the area of deep convection.

So it's possible that the system to its east is shearing it apart and will take over entirely?

All this time I thought whatever was east 91E was pulsing convection from the ICTZ.

[NDG]

Man it gets really hard to differentiate the mid levels and the lower levels. What do you look at to determine if a system has a true LLC?

Shortwave IR loop, but the lower naked vorticity that I am looking at might be just rotating around a larger circulation, I see a lot of low level clouds near moving east towards the area of deep convection.

So it's possible that the system to its east is shearing it apart and will take over entirely?

All this time I thought whatever was east 91E was pulsing convection from the ICTZ.

I am thinking maybe the system to the east is the one taking over, if at all.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is less
organized than it was yesterday, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days as the disturbance
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

Mid-level shear taking toll and I wouldn't be surprised if the center reforms closer to the blob to its east.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track now more east closer to large convection area.


Location: 9.3°N 112.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912016  06/02/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    27    29    31    39    47    57    63    68    71    72    72
V (KT) LAND       25    25    27    29    31    39    47    57    63    68    71    72    72
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    25    25    25    27    30    36    42    49    55    61    65
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        17    13    11     9     9     8     5     6     0     1     5    11    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     2     2     3     3     0    -1    -1     0    -1     0     4     2
SHEAR DIR         80    82    92   102    95    90    75    36   336   111    13    58    80
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.6  29.5  29.4  29.3  29.2  29.1  28.8  28.3  28.0
POT. INT. (KT)   157   158   159   159   161   159   157   155   155   154   152   147   144
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.2  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.2
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     7     7     7     6
700-500 MB RH     64    62    63    61    61    62    63    60    57    55    50    48    45
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     8     8     8     8     9    10    12    13    16    17    19    20
850 MB ENV VOR    13    17    22    22    15    30    40    45    53    57    51    34    23
200 MB DIV        79    52    57    41    26    44    43    49    59    66    52    74    82
700-850 TADV       0    -1    -1    -1    -1     0     0     0     1     1     1    -1    -2
LAND (KM)       1405  1424  1456  1515  1600  1710  1800  1844  1858  1905  1976  2033  2095
LAT (DEG N)      9.3   9.4   9.6   9.6   9.5   9.4   9.2   9.3   9.7  10.1  10.5  11.3  12.1
LONG(DEG W)    112.9 113.3 114.0 114.8 115.8 117.7 119.0 119.9 120.7 121.9 123.4 125.3 127.0
STM SPEED (KT)     3     6     7     9    10     8     5     4     6     7     9     9    10
HEAT CONTENT      79    84    88    89    82    49    40    36    42    36    26    19    12

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  2      CX,CY:  -1/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  657  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            2.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   6.  13.  21.  26.  29.  32.  32.  32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   8.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.  10.  11.  11.  10.  10.  10.  11.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   5.   7.  10.  11.  13.  13.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -9.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   2.   4.   6.  14.  22.  32.  38.  43.  46.  47.  47.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:    9.3   112.9

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST     06/02/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36           3.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   133.8      40.3  to  144.5       0.90           5.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    84.4       0.0  to   75.9       1.00           7.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    19.8      38.9  to    2.1       0.52           3.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    11.7      18.9  to    1.4       0.41           2.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    51.0     -11.0  to  135.3       0.42           1.4
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   104.0     638.0  to  -68.2       0.76           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.6       2.1  to   -1.7       0.70          -0.9
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.8
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  33% is   2.5 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  24% is   2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   32.7%   24.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.7%    3.3%    4.4%    0.3%    0.1%    6.1%    1.7%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.6%   12.1%    9.5%    0.1%    0.0%    2.0%    0.6%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST     06/02/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Down to 60%-80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
low pressure area located about 950 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is not too enthusiastic.

[cycloneye]

I am beginning to doubt this will develop at all as is still stucked in the iTCZ and shear has been above the SHIP forecast. Unless those two things change I don't see it developing.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear may be on the decline per CMISS, but the satellite presentation is downright disgraceful, and I'm not seeing any relaxation of shear visibly.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 2 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is located about 970 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Although shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and has decreased in coverage, environmental conditions
are still expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the
disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts