ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1041 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:54 pm

The total dearth of rain today in SE FL astounds me. What in the world is going on? I read SAL earlier, incredible if that's what is keeping us dry. Makes me doubt the rain that's being promised for us on Wednesday and Thursday...
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1042 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:58 pm

This storm broke a 129 year old record. Wow
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1043 Postby stormwise » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:24 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:The total dearth of rain today in SE FL astounds me. What in the world is going on? I read SAL earlier, incredible if that's what is keeping us dry. Makes me doubt the rain that's being promised for us on Wednesday and Thursday...


Would it still just fall as dirty rain?, but yeah there is a lot of sal.

Image

http://www.map.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/viewer. ... ttau-amax=
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1044 Postby Cdavis » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:52 am

In Flagler county it has been consistent rain, a few lightning strikes and high winds (nws over 40mph gusts, some close to 50) As I sit here now the rain has slowed but the winds have picked up. Just saw a couple transformers blow.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1045 Postby LarryWx » Tue Jun 07, 2016 1:27 am

Gainesville ended up with 5.65" officially on 6/6, which is a new record high for the date. However, rain (some heavy) continued til near 2 AM. So, it is likely total Colin related rainfall exceeded 6"! It is about over now.

Aside: It is a pleasant surprise to see Rich Johnson back on TWC tonight covering Colin. I haven't seen him in years and I always thought he was excellent.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1046 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 07, 2016 3:27 am

Colin is officially the first Tropical Storm to make landfall in Florida since Andrea(2013) on 6/6/13.

Colin was also the 9th Tropical Storm to hit the state since the hurricane drought began.

This also goes with my seasonal predictions of Florida seeing at least one Tropical Storm landfall.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Advisories

#1047 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:42 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...CENTER OF COLIN NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 82.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Florida Gulf
coast from Indian Pass to the Suwannee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Gulf coast from Suwannee River to Englewood
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Colin will
move across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia for the next
few hours, and then move near or over the southeastern coast of the
United States later today. However, it's important to note that
the strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the
center.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over the Atlantic
waters well to the east of the center. Some strengthening is
forecast after Colin moves into the Atlantic later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches across western to
northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and coastal areas of the
Carolinas through Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area along the west coast of the Florida peninsula for the
next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over portions of the warning area along the Atlantic coast of
Florida, and these conditions will spread northward and
northeastward over the remainder of the warning area through
the remainder of today.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will remain possible across parts of
central and northeast Florida early tonight, and perhaps near
coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Advisories

#1048 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:43 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...CENTER OF COLIN MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Atlantic coast
south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, and along the Gulf coast of
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 80.6 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed today and
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Colin should move
near and parallel to the coast of the southeastern United States
today. However, it's important to note that the strongest winds and
heaviest rains are well removed from the center.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ship
data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is expected during the
next 24 hours. However, Colin is also expected to lose its tropical
cyclone characteristics by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
NOAA buoy 41008 recently reported a pressure of 1002.0 mb (29.59
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches across eastern North Carolina and central Florida
through today. Rainfall is expected to diminish across northern
Florida, coastal Georgia, and eastern South Carolina this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area. The surge along the Florida Gulf coast should
diminish today.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur over portions of the
warning area today.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will remain possible across parts of
the coastal Carolinas today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Surface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has
moved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic. Overall, the
system does not look very tropical. However, a large area of
deep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the
center during the night. Aircraft data and ship reports suggest
that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of
the center.

Colin has accelerated northeastward with the initial motion now
050/27. The cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward for
the next 24-36 hours due as it is steered by a large deep-layer
trough over the eastern United States. After that, the forward
speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a
couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic. The
new forecast track is an update of the previous track, with a
northward nudge at 72-120 hours.

Baroclinic influences are expected to cause some strengthening
today even as Colin loses its tropical characteristics. The
cyclone is expected to transition to a storm-force extratropical
low in about 36 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter. The
forecast intensities and wind radii have been modified based on
input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this
case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the
post-tropical cyclone. The current warnings are expected to remain
in effect until it becomes clear that the center of Colin will not
get closer to the coast than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 31.6N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 37.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/1800Z 42.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 45.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 50.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 56.0N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1049 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:51 am

Incredible training effect over Tampa/St Pete during the past few hours.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1050 Postby ftolmsteen » Tue Jun 07, 2016 5:52 am

Tampa/St.Pete area roughly with 3 to 4 inches from the past few hours and the Courtney Campbel Causeway is closed across the bay due to high surf.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1051 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:53 am

A low center shows up well in obs just off the coast near the NC/SC border. It's not tropical any longer, though. Colin was never a good example of a tropical storm. Rain and wind, yes, but with a broad, weak, and vague circulation. Now, perhaps we can have a couple months of quiet before the real season begins...
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Advisories

#1052 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:55 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...COLIN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 77.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Atlantic coast
south of Surf City, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite and surface observations indicate that Colin's
circulation is becoming less defined and Colin could lose its
status as a tropical cyclone by this afternoon.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
estimated to be near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 77.8 West.
Colin is moving toward the northeast near 33 mph (54 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Colin
should move near and parallel to the coast of North Carolina this
this morning, then offshore well east of the mid-Atlantic coast
later today. However, it's important to note that the strongest
winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is expected during the next 24 hours.
However, Colin is also expected to lose its tropical cyclone
characteristics today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches across eastern North Carolina and central Florida
through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Apalachicola to Naples Florida...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast of North Carolina within the tropical storm warning
area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur over portions of the
warning area this morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will remain possible across parts of
the coastal Carolinas today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1053 Postby caneman » Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:24 am

Just goes to show you that a T..S. doesn't have to be pretty. It caused lots of beach erosion and street flooding here along with some wind. At least a good wake up for the Tampa - St. Pete and Clearwater area. I saw that with the courtney campbell, even the Howard Franklin bridge was getting some overwash.
Last edited by caneman on Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1054 Postby caneman » Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:25 am

Yeah. NDG. Im done with the rain. Do you have a link for total rainfall from Colin by city?
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1055 Postby caneman » Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:34 am

Just saw that the beaches along pinellas county was over 5 inches and that was likely prior to the training rains from this morning.
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1056 Postby tolakram » Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:04 am

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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1057 Postby caneman » Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:21 am

My area near Indian Rocks beach had 6 inches of rain. I just happened to forget a bucket in the yard :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1058 Postby bg1 » Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:56 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:This storm broke a 129 year old record. Wow


You mean for earliest third storm?
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1059 Postby Phoenix78 » Tue Jun 07, 2016 9:01 am

My location (Vero Beach South) has received 0" of rainfall the last 36 hours. Go figure! ...Alan
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Re: ATL: COLIN - Tropical Storm - Advisories

#1060 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:00 am

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...COLIN BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...GUSTY WINDS AND RAINS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD BE ENDING
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 77.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the North
Carolina coast south of Cape Lookout.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Caple Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

This warning will likely be discontinued early this afternoon.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Colin
was estimated near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 77.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in
forward speed this afernoon and tonight. The center of Colin will
move near and parallel to the Outer Banks of North Carolina during
the next couple of hours, then offshore well east of the
mid-Atlantic coast later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts, although the system's strongest winds and
heaviest rains are located over water well southeast of the
center. Some slight strengthening is possible today and tonight,
but gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
primarily to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches across far eastern North Carolina
and 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches,
across central Florida through this evening.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the west coast
of the Florida peninsula, but are expected to subside by this
evening.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Outer Banks of North Carolina within the tropical storm warning
area. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur over portions of the
warning area through early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Satellite and surface observations indicate that Colin has become
post-tropical. A pressure minimum has recently passed near NOAA
buoy 41013, but the circulation has become so elongated and ill
defined that the system can no longer be considered a tropical
cyclone. However, strong winds are still occurring along the North
Carolina Outer Banks, so advisories will continue on a post-tropical
cyclone until these winds subside. The minimum pressure has fallen a
few millibars and recent buoy observations have recorded
tropical-storm-force winds near the western portion of the deep
convection. Assuming stronger winds are occurring within the deep
convection and given the fast translational speed of the system, the
initial wind speed is increased to 50 kt.

The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will
deepen due to baroclinic processes during the next day or so, and
the NHC intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening.
After that time, the low is expected to gradually weaken over the
North Atlantic. The forecast intensities and wind radii of the
extratropical low are based on guidance provided by the Ocean
Prediction Center.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving northeastward at about 31 kt.
This general motion with some additional increase in forward speed
is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the
cyclone should slow as it moves around and is eventually absorbed
by a larger low over the North Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 34.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0000Z 36.9N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z 41.0N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 51.5N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 53.5N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...Absorbed

$$
Forecaster Brown
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