ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like rain from Colin is about to move into Coastal portions of SE FL!

[caneman]

Just looking at the visible satellite loop...you can see the back edge of the dense cloud cover quickly pivoting eastward. I would not be shocked if we're able to see the sunset this evening. there's at least a decent possibility barring another convective blow up.

not sure about your sunset hopes, it keeps back filling

[jlauderdal]

If we're lucky, we'll get a sprinkle or two down here! I was hoping for some good rain for my lawn & landscaping. Oh well, time to break out the sprinklers(AGAIN)!

be patient, the setup is looking good for later this week

[jlauderdal]

Sunny, breezy dp 75 in FLL, no rain in sight

Our rain is coming. It's pushing inland right now. It'll probably be in the Dade and Broward Metro by rush hour. Have fun on the roads in South Florida this evening

at least this line looks like it might just graze the metro area. Seems like a dry spell after this line.

Southeast Floridians,

There is a decent chance of higher totals later this week than anyone saw with Colin, this has been modeled now for several days and its on track...i know its been dry but that appears to be changing.

[Spoomsister]

Are the higher rain chances later in the week due to the TD in Mexico at the moment?

[johngaltfla]

Seeing that too:

That's the one that got us. Lost power for 30 minutes, some small sheds knocked down, small roofs flying around, and wow do I have a lot of large branches to clean up. Sigh.

[sammy126]

HI, I have a question. I live in Sarasota county Florida. Why is colin less intense then Debby 2012. With debby we got a lot more wind. Is it the track or the speed of movement.

[johngaltfla]

HI, I have a question. I live in Sarasota county Florida. Why is colin less intense then Debby 2012. With debby we got a lot more wind. Is it the track or the speed of movement.

Debby was a lot more organized. Colin was a broad low with little intensification and not as concentrated and moving NNE as opposed to Debby moving E to ENE.

[Sanibel]

Rain break. More bands in Gulf.

[BobHarlem]

The rain is all the way from the Gulf to North Carolina now, and SC/NC may get a lot more than they were expecting. Colin's causing everyone headaches.

[Steve]

For historical purposes, a line will be drawn on a map stating there was a TS that hit N FL in 2016. Center looks pretty close to the coast and depending on angle of entry, somewhere between Wakulla and Dixie Counties will be where that line is drawn. Joe B was talking about it making a run for strength on the other side and showed gfdl with some gusts to hurricane force. I guess depending on how close it is to the coast will determine how bad it is for coastal GA/SC/NC tomorrow. I think the winds in this type of system would continue to be east of the CoC, but sometimes you can have the atmosphere wrung out of rainfall (or snowfall in those months) along the edge of those fronts on the western side of the circulation.

[tolakram]

Still badly sheared but since earlier today it does appear a single LLC has, for the most part, appeared.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[pgoss11]

Also a little flair up of convection around the COC

[northjaxpro]

For historical purposes, a line will be drawn on a map stating there was a TS that hit N FL in 2016. Center looks pretty close to the coast and depending on angle of entry, somewhere between Wakulla and Dixie Counties will be where that line is drawn. Joe B was talking about it making a run for strength on the other side and showed gfdl with some gusts to hurricane force. I guess depending on how close it is to the coast will determine how bad it is for coastal GA/SC/NC tomorrow. I think the winds in this type of system would continue to be east of the CoC, but sometimes you can have the atmosphere wrung out of rainfall (or snowfall in those months) along the edge of those fronts on the western side of the circulation.

Very good observations. Visible satelitte imagery is showing that the naked COC is just about to make landfall on Dixie County in the heart of the Florida Big Bend region. There is a significant band setting up on radar and rotating up inland from the Gulf coast region north of Tampa to up to the mouth of the Suwannee River. This is the band I am watching this evening as this may impact Northeast Florida later tonight as Colin moves overvthe area.

The SE ATL coast will see some tropical storm winds and decent surf tomorrow as Colin moves on to the northeast So much will depend on just where Colin' s proximity to the coast will be early on Tuesday. If the system emerges off the GA/SC coast and stays off shore , there is a chance he could take advantage very briefly of the warm Gulf Stream ssts and develop into a stronger cyclone before transitioning extratropical in about 36-48 hours.

Colin bought a mess of weather to us across the Florida peninsula. Yeah shear wreaked havoc over Colin, but the large gyre still bought a lot of heavy rain, tornadoes and power outages to many across the peninsula. Colin may not have been your textbook looking cyclone, but he still caused enough problems. Colin isno dud I can assure you.

[SeGaBob]

Rain seems to be weakening. It may not rain much more here. 2.5 inches so far, which is less than the 4-8 NWS called for.

[northjaxpro]

We have one more significant rainband which will rotate through Jax area in a couple of more hours SEGA Bob. We measured al.ost exactly the same in rainfall to tjis point. More rain tonight will likely push me over 3 inches for this event with Colin. Thankfully Colin is moving out quickly because we definitely would have been looking at much more substantial rainfall totals if he had been a slow mover, like Debby was in down here in June 2012.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just got home from work and haven't watched any news today. Was wondering if the media outlets, especially twc, brought their Oscar like performances to hype this benign storm up to make it like a cat 2 hurricane making landfall.

[sponger]

Good call today picking up the kids early and heading home. Beat the first rain and traffic by an hour. N FL is a mess! Storm2k pays another dividend!

[Steve]

Still badly sheared but since earlier today it does appear a single LLC has, for the most part, appeared.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

Damn. The Ghost of Mickey Rat appearing at the end of that visible loop.
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Thanks jax. Y'all be safe over there. That last band might yet blow down some limbs.

[northjaxpro]

They bought down three reporters, one in Clearwater Beach, one in Daytona Beach, and even one here at Jacksonville Beach. I seldom watch TWC, but I have been glacing off and on after getting home just to see what they were reporting on around the peninsula.

I have to say there is nothing much out there for them to see, other than talking to surfers out there, like the dude in Daytona Beach was just doing a few minutes ago. I agree with you Cyclone Mike in this instance. That is just plain non productive, non quality reporting.

The only value I have got watching the TWC this evening was from Dr. Greg Forbes and Bryan Norcross with their excellent analysis.