EPAC: ONE-E - Remnants

[tropicwatch]

Boy that one is a slow mover. Doesn't look like it will make it into the BOC.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
700 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...DEPRESSION BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT
REMAINS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 96.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite images indicate the circulation of the depression is
becoming less organized. At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of
Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.3 North,
longitude 96.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast
near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during
the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the cyclone makes
landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 8
inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible
in the watch area on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 01, 201606062345,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1360N,  9630W,      , 2,  30, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  TS,  VIM, 3, 1520 /////,      ,   , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=1.0 BO SHR  MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO CON

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE DEPRESSION
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to approach
the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday but likely remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10
inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible
in the watch area on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Satellite and microwave data indicate that the depression is not
well organized. Although there is still a lot of strong
convection, last-light visible images suggested that the low-level
circulation was separating from the mid-level center. The initial
wind speed will remain 30 kt in accordance with the CI numbers from
TAFB/SAB. Increasing southerly shear should cause the depression to
weaken tomorrow. All of the guidance show the cyclone losing some
strength by late Tuesday, and the official forecasts follows their
lead.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 8 kt on the east
side of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf
of Mexico. While a vertically intact system would likely move
onshore, more guidance tonight is suggesting that the low-level
center will stay south of Mexico. This solution makes sense since
the low and mid-level centers already appear to be separating. The
official forecast is thus shifted southward, between the ECMWF and
GFDL model, keeping the center over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high
terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 15.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 15.6N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

This morning's satellite presentation reveals a rather poorly
organized, substantially tilted tropical cyclone with the associated
shapeless deep convective mass displaced to the northeast of the
center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by
the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates. Strong, persistent
southerly shear should induce a weakening trend as the system
approaches the coast. Most of the global models indicate that the
system will become a remnant low and dissipate in 24 hours or so,
and the NHC forecast reflects this scenario.

With a disorganized cloud pattern, the initial position and motion
are highly uncertain, and are based mainly on continuity. However,
the low to mid-level weak southwesterly flow produced by a shortwave
trough over southern Mexico should steer the vertically shallow
cyclone generally northeastward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through the forecast period. The official forecast is based on a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF global and ensemble guidance and is
slightly to the right of the previous advisory.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (10 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to approach
the coast of southern Mexico later today, but will likely remain
offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10
inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible
in the watch area today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

The tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated
with it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern
semicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from
TAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning
are the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt.

It is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still
exists in association with the system. First-light visible
satellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain
ambiguous as to the structure of its circulation. The initial
motion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being
steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of
a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression
should slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official
track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north
from that of the previous advisory.

The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly
vertical shear this morning. This as well as proximity to the
high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into
its circulation should likely prevent intensification into a
tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show
dissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity
forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in
areas of high terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 15.3N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.7N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
WESTERN GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 94.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 94.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (10 km/h).
The system is expected to slow and turn toward the north today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10
inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz, and over
western Guatemala. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible
in the watch area today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND WESTERN GUATEMALA AS DEPRESSION NEARS THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 94.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Puerto Escondido to Salina Cruz.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Boca De Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). The
system is expected to slow and turn toward the north today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Chiapas, and 2 to 4 inches over the Mexican states of Tabasco
and eastern Veracruz, and over western Guatemala. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in Oaxaca and Chiapas. These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible
in the watch area today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Numerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep
convection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
southeastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center. No in-situ
observations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an
18Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis
for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt.

It again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical
depression. The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight
low-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the
southern edge of the convective overcast. Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B
scatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone
was consistent with a closed surface circulation center being
located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The initial motion is an
uncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by
the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough
over central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its
forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or
just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast
is near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory.

The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly
vertical shear. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of
southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is
likely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All
statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the
tropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it
remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The
official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the
previous advisory.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in
areas of high terrain.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 15.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.0N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Yellow Evan]

Pretty sure this is an open wave right now.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...DEPRESSION LOSING ORGANIZATION BUT STILL SOAKING SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Boca De Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was estimated near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 94.6 West.
The depression is drifting northeastward near 5 mph (8 km/h), and
little motion is anticipated during the next few hours. A turn
toward the north is expected later tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are occurring over water to the east and southeast of
the center. The depression appears to be losing organization and the
tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Chiapas, and 2 to 4 inches over the Mexican states of Tabasco
and eastern Veracruz, and over western Guatemala. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in Oaxaca and Chiapas. These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible
in the watch area today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

...DEPRESSION FADING FAST BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 94.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area please monitor products
issued by your local national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was estimated near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 94.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and
this general drift is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are occurring over water to the east
and southeast of the center. The depression is losing organization
and the tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Chiapas, and 2 to 4 inches over the Mexican states of Tabasco
and eastern Veracruz, and over western Guatemala. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in Oaxaca and Chiapas. These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Avila


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

The low-level center of the depression is difficult to locate even
on microwave imagery. Any convection left is weakening and is
confined within a band well removed from the alleged center. The
current position is highly uncertain and is based primarily on
continuity and some hint of a circulation in the low clouds. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and given the current
shear, and the fact that the circulation is already interacting with
the high terrain of Mexico, additional weakening is anticipated. The
depression is forecast to become a remnant low in about 12 hours.

The depression appears to be moving toward the northeast or 045
degrees at 3 kt. The steering flow should force the system on a slow
northeastward track, bringing the depression gradually inland.
Another alternative is for the mid-level center to move
northeastward while a weak low-level swirl remains meandering near
the coast.

Despite the observed weakening of the depression, very heavy rain
continues. This rainfall is enhanced by the moist southwest flow
over the high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where
flash floods and mud slides are

anticipated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.9N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.3N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
400 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016

Mexican surface and radar data, along with recent ASCAT overpasses,
indicate that the center of the depression is now near the coast of
Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The scatterometer data suggests
that the maximum winds are at most 25 kt. The depression is
expected to move inland later today and dissipate over southeastern
Mexico in less than 24 hours.

The initial motion is a northward drift or 360/2. A northward to
north-northeastward drift should continue until dissipation.

While the associated convection has been minimal for the past few
hours, there is a continued heavy rainfall threat from this system.
This rainfall will be enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the
high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where flash
floods and mud slides are anticipated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 16.1N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.4N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

REMNANTS OF ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016

Mexican surface and radar data, along with a recent RAPIDSCAT
scatterometer overpass, indicate that the tropical depression
reached the Mexican coast earlier this morning and the surface
circulation has now dissipated. Peak onshore winds continue at
about 20 kt, which should diminish later today.

Even though the surface circulation has dissipated, there is a
continued heavy rainfall threat from this system. This rainfall will
be enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the high terrain of
southern Mexico and western Guatemala, where flash floods and mud
slides are anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.4N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF ONE-E
12H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[galaxy401]

Still have to wait for the first named storm in the EPAC (excluding Pali). The Pacific sure has been dead so far.