WPAC: TD 01W

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WPAC: INVEST 90W

#1 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 24, 2016 4:52 am

Image

90W INVEST 160524 0600 14.5N 114.0E WPAC 15 NA

West of the Philippines.

Looking like it's developing within a robust monsoon trough that should increase convection across the region. NAVGEM, CMC, and now EURO keeps this weak, TD/TS near Hong Kong. GFS none.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed May 25, 2016 8:41 pm

Doesn't look like it will do much strengthening past a tropical storm due to land but you never know as these WPAC storms can ramp up pretty fast so we'll see

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 26, 2016 12:10 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 260500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 114.6E TO 22.3N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260146Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 114.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9 N
114.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEPENING CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS FORMING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INCREASE IN BROAD CIRCULATION
EXHIBITS AN IMPROVING VORTICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
(10-15 KNOTS). A 260146Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS IDENTIFIES THE WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION, AND ALSO SHOWS 20 KNOT WIND BARBS DISPLAYED IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON RECENT CONSOLIDATION AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270500Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 26, 2016 12:11 am

Been gone and surprised it got a TCFA.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 26, 2016 12:13 am

TXPQ24 KNES 260300
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 26/0230Z

C. 16.4N

D. 113.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu May 26, 2016 1:24 am

JMA note a TD in their synoptic summary

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 114E NW 10 KT
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 26, 2016 10:38 am

TXPQ24 KNES 260923
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 26/0830Z

C. 18.8N

D. 113.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER


TPPN10 PGTW 261514

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (E OF HAINAN)

B. 26/1420Z

C. 19.75N

D. 113.13E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:54 pm

Image

This is how it looks before landfall...

It looks very organized enough, spiral bands, deep convection, nice cdo. In fact, Chuandaozhen‬ in Jiangmen recorded a maximum gust of 65 mph...

Likely a missed TS...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby NotoSans » Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:54 pm

Seems that JTWC has upgraded it. NRL archive now has 01W.
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WPAC: TD 01W-Post-Tropical

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:31 am

Yeah I just noticed that.... :lol:
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: TD 01W

#11 Postby NotoSans » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:42 am

Looking at the position and the time, it was actually 90W which has just dissipated. JTWC probably did a post-storm upgrade.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:46 am

NotoSans wrote:Seems that JTWC has upgraded it. NRL archive now has 01W.


Still can't ignore that 65 mph gust. It should have been Nepartak...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby NotoSans » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:49 am

euro6208 wrote:
NotoSans wrote:Seems that JTWC has upgraded it. NRL archive now has 01W.


Still can't ignore that 65 mph gust. It should have been Nepartak...

Gust may not accurately represent intensity though.
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Re: WPAC: TD 01W

#14 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:49 pm

Also notice the timestamp on NRL: May 27th.
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Re: WPAC: TD 01W

#15 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jun 11, 2016 8:08 pm

Steve Young shared this from the JTWC group:

Bob Falvey Detailed post analysis indicates a previous disturbance known as 90W actually met the 25 kt warning criteria and therefore was added as 01W after the fact.
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Re: WPAC: TD 01W

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:18 pm

I wonder, could this thread maybe be merged with the original 90W thread?
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Re: WPAC: TD 01W

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:26 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I wonder, could this thread maybe be merged with the original 90W thread?


Made the merge.
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