ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2016 6:33 am

AL, 94, 2016061812, , BEST, 0, 196N, 905W, 15, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST S

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Thread at talking tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117977
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ATL: DANIELLE - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2016 6:38 am

Only models here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:26 am

Well, it has a chance to spin up into a decent tropical cyclone once it emerges into the BOC. Shear is now considerably lower down there, and conducive for development. I could see this becoming at least a 45 kt TS before making landfall. However, cyclones really tend to ramp up quickly in that region, and with warm ssts down there, it would not shock me if it ends up being stronger before coming ashore early next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:42 am

First run of tropical models.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:53 am

Wind Shear is not the lowest but it's not too strong like what we saw with Bonnie and Colin. Personally I think it is very possible we could see Danielle in the coming days, peak strength in my opinion would be around 35-40kts.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:54 am

:uarrow: Models look to have trended north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:09 am

Models still don't indicate more than a trof axis or weak swirl moving ashore Monday night. I suspect this system won't amount to much besides the increased squalls across the BoC tomorrow/Monday. The east coast system looks much more likely to me, though the NHC has chosen to ignore it due to its non-tropical origins, I suspect.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:37 am

ALL models making this into T.S. At some point!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:38 am

Boy, when I made my predictions for this year, I didn't mean 17 storms before Labor Day. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:49 am

you are aware you cannot use any intensity forecast beyond 48-60 hrs?

This will over Mexico then
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#11 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:05 am

Ok, then could this reform in the Pacific?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:50 am

Cam of Campeche in NW Yucatan. Those low clouds are moving very fast so something is near that town.

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ATL: DANIELLE - Recon

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2016 10:30 am

If necessary first mission is on Sunday afternoon.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 181528
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 19/1800Z                    A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
       C. 19/1530Z                    C. 20/0300Z
       D. 21.5N 95.0W                 D. 22.0N 96.5W
       E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z        E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sat Jun 18, 2016 10:53 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby CourierPR » Sat Jun 18, 2016 10:56 am

Will there be enough time for development given its close proximity to Mexico?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:47 am

Definitely some spin going on off the northwestern tip of the Yucatan. This may have a shot to develop after all. I give it a 50 percent chance if that spin is in the lower levels already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:47 am

Yeah no this isn't making it across Mexico no matter what the SHIPS output thinks.

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL942016  06/18/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    22    23    23    25    27    28    29    31    37    41    44
V (KT) LAND       20    23    24    25    26    27    29    27    27    27    33    37    40
V (KT) LGEM       20    23    23    22    22    20    18    20    25    26    31    34    36
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        20    21    27    27    22    23    12    10     6     7     5    10     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2    -5    -1     3     1    -2     0    -5     4     1     5     3     0
SHEAR DIR        275   259   248   258   266   249   285   279   326     2    62    62    79
SST (C)         29.1  29.2  29.4  29.6  29.5  29.1  28.6  28.4  28.5  28.5  27.3  24.1  23.7
POT. INT. (KT)   152   154   157   161   160   153   145   143   145   145   129   100    98
ADJ. POT. INT.   140   142   143   147   148   140   132   131   135   136   120    94    92
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2  -0.1  -0.2  -0.2  -0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.1   0.0  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    11     8     7     9     7    11     9    11     6     5     1
700-500 MB RH     64    64    68    69    69    73    71    71    70    64    60    55    56
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     8     9    10     9     8     8     6     4     2  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -26    -6    13     9     1     0   -27   -23   -24   -22   -20   -31   -45
200 MB DIV        14    15    31    36    20    16    21    37    -3     6   -19     0   -27
700-850 TADV      -9     0    -5   -18   -15     2    -8    -5    -2    -4     7    -4     6
LAND (KM)        -11    76   154   211   259   207    92  -113  -369  -112   154   188   402
LAT (DEG N)     19.6  19.9  20.2  20.5  20.8  21.8  22.4  22.6  22.4  21.9  21.6  21.2  20.7
LONG(DEG W)     90.5  91.3  92.0  92.6  93.4  95.2  96.9  99.0 101.5 104.3 107.1 110.0 113.1
STM SPEED (KT)     7     8     7     7     9     9     9    11    13    13    13    14    15
HEAT CONTENT      19    33    21    20    23    28    28     5     0     9    12     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  7      CX,CY:  -6/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  634  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            2.7

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  12.  19.  24.  29.  34.  36.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   3.   2.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -4.  -7. -11. -11. -12. -12.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   2.   3.   3.   5.   7.   8.   9.  11.  17.  21.  24.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   19.6    90.5

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST     06/18/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    23.4      28.8  to    2.9       0.21         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    23.2       0.0  to  155.1       0.15         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    13.6      37.5  to    2.9       0.69         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.7       2.8  to   -3.1       0.60         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    23.2     -23.1  to  181.5       0.23         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   123.9      28.4  to  139.1       0.86         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    19.7     100.0  to    0.0       0.80         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    53.4     960.3  to  -67.1       0.88         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.7%    9.9%    4.1%    1.1%    0.0%    1.0%    3.1%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.4%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.6%    3.4%    1.4%    0.4%    0.0%    0.3%    1.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST     06/18/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST     06/18/2016  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  20    23    24    25    26    27    29    27    27    27    33    37    40
 18HR AGO           20    19    20    21    22    23    25    23    23    23    29    33    36
 12HR AGO           20    17    16    17    18    19    21    19    19    19    25    29    32
  6HR AGO           20   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:49 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Models look to have trended north.


Yeah but the models posted above aren't exactly reliable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:52 am

The better ones like HWRF,GFDL come later this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jun 18, 2016 11:54 am

CourierPR wrote:Will there be enough time for development given its close proximity to Mexico?


Thats questionable. Under optimum conditions, a couple days could be reasonable. If I had to guess right now with what i'm looking at I'd guess a depression "could" form prior to landfall but less than 50/50 odds of that. I dont think the time and conditions will get it to T.S. level though (but not out of the question). In its favor: relatively small system could more easilly spin up a bit quicker. Working against it: appearts to be throwing arc clouds out toward the northwest. Southwesterly upper level shear though not severe, is nonethelsess noticable still. Convection is thus far pretty paltry.
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