ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Was the circulation strong enough to declare a TD? Also I don't think there will be another Recon mission before landfall?

[Aric Dunn]

I few 35 36 and 37 kt winds.

they might go to TS right away.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 192011
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 30 20160619
200200 2033N 09413W 9770 00306 0115 +241 +228 122021 022 018 000 00
200230 2031N 09414W 9768 00308 0116 +240 +231 119020 020 018 000 03
200300 2030N 09415W 9774 00301 0114 +240 +231 120020 021 016 000 00
200330 2029N 09416W 9769 00306 0115 +240 +233 121020 021 018 001 00
200400 2028N 09418W 9770 00305 0114 +240 +229 121018 019 018 000 03
200430 2027N 09419W 9769 00305 0114 +240 +234 120018 019 018 000 00
200500 2026N 09420W 9773 00302 0114 +240 +232 115017 017 017 000 00
200530 2025N 09421W 9768 00305 0113 +244 +224 113016 017 016 001 03
200600 2024N 09422W 9770 00303 0113 +245 +226 110015 015 016 000 03
200630 2022N 09423W 9760 00314 0114 +245 +230 114014 016 014 000 00
200700 2021N 09424W 9770 00302 0113 +245 +227 113014 014 015 000 00
200730 2020N 09425W 9768 00306 0112 +244 +233 116015 015 013 000 00
200800 2018N 09426W 9770 00302 0112 +245 +231 116015 016 014 001 00
200830 2017N 09426W 9770 00303 0113 +243 +234 117016 017 014 000 00
200900 2015N 09427W 9770 00303 0113 +241 +234 113017 017 016 000 00
200930 2014N 09428W 9770 00303 0113 +240 +235 113017 018 021 000 03
201000 2013N 09429W 9770 00303 0112 +241 +231 113017 018 021 000 03
201030 2011N 09429W 9768 00303 0111 +240 +233 111017 018 018 001 03
201100 2010N 09430W 9769 00302 0111 +240 +235 107019 019 018 000 03
201130 2008N 09431W 9769 00302 0110 +239 +237 107019 020 020 000 01

[NDG]

Looks like it has 3 centers. Super disorganized.






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Maybe on elongated circulation but only one center, per the recon.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 192021
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 31 20160619
201200 2007N 09432W 9772 00297 0108 +242 +225 104017 019 019 000 00
201230 2006N 09432W 9768 00301 0107 +241 +227 100018 019 016 000 00
201300 2004N 09433W 9769 00301 0108 +240 +232 100019 019 016 000 03
201330 2003N 09433W 9772 00298 0108 +240 +234 100019 019 016 000 00
201400 2001N 09434W 9772 00297 0109 +240 +234 104016 018 017 000 03
201430 2000N 09434W 9769 00301 0109 +240 +232 106016 016 014 000 00
201500 1958N 09434W 9771 00298 0109 +240 +233 111015 016 014 000 03
201530 1957N 09435W 9766 00302 0108 +240 +227 113015 016 014 000 03
201600 1955N 09435W 9772 00296 0107 +240 +232 117015 015 015 000 00
201630 1954N 09435W 9773 00295 0106 +240 +231 114014 015 015 001 03
201700 1952N 09436W 9768 00298 0105 +241 +230 121010 013 013 001 00
201730 1951N 09437W 9771 00295 0104 +241 +237 133009 010 015 000 00
201800 1949N 09437W 9769 00296 0104 +241 +238 149006 009 010 001 01
201830 1948N 09438W 9766 00297 0102 +244 +236 196001 005 008 000 00
201900 1947N 09439W 9768 00296 0102 +245 +236 313002 003 007 000 00
201930 1946N 09441W 9773 00291 0102 +245 +236 296005 006 008 001 03
202000 1945N 09442W 9769 00295 0102 +245 +233 304009 010 008 000 03
202030 1944N 09443W 9774 00290 0102 +245 +234 305012 014 009 000 00
202100 1943N 09444W 9773 00292 0102 +241 +234 311015 015 017 000 00
202130 1942N 09445W 9767 00297 0102 +244 +229 307016 018 017 000 03

[Extratropical94]

[Hammy]

Looks like it has 3 centers. Super disorganized.






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Maybe on elongated circulation but only one center, per the recon.

Looked like the NW tip of a convergence line more than anything--probably the circulation pushing up against the NW flow that's resulting from the shape of the coastline.

[ozonepete]

Will likely make TS before landfall.

Hi Aric. I'm with you. Shear will be key as to how strong of a TS it gets.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Storm has not moved since the last pass. At least if I am reading recon correctly. Convection increasing. It is fighting hard to get a name.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 192031
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 32 20160619
202200 1941N 09447W 9769 00295 0102 +246 +221 306018 019 015 000 03
202230 1940N 09448W 9772 00291 0101 +248 +221 302020 022 016 000 00
202300 1939N 09449W 9774 00289 0100 +245 +222 301023 023 018 000 03
202330 1937N 09450W 9769 00294 0100 +245 +222 305024 025 018 000 00
202400 1936N 09451W 9769 00294 0101 +245 +222 309023 023 019 000 03
202430 1935N 09452W 9772 00292 0102 +238 +224 313025 025 021 001 00
202500 1934N 09453W 9772 00294 0103 +234 +226 320024 025 022 001 00
202530 1933N 09454W 9769 00295 0102 +240 +230 325026 027 019 000 00
202600 1932N 09455W 9772 00292 0103 +239 +235 324024 026 019 000 03
202630 1931N 09457W 9766 00298 0104 +242 +235 324026 027 020 000 00
202700 1930N 09458W 9770 00296 0103 +245 +229 322027 027 021 000 00
202730 1928N 09459W 9758 00307 0104 +243 +234 324027 027 021 000 00
202800 1927N 09500W 9770 00298 0107 +245 +233 322027 028 020 000 00
202830 1926N 09502W 9770 00298 0107 +245 +233 325026 027 019 000 00
202900 1924N 09503W 9771 00298 0107 +245 +231 326027 027 017 001 00
202930 1923N 09505W 9770 00300 0108 +245 +233 328027 027 019 000 00
203000 1922N 09506W 9773 00298 0109 +245 +235 330027 028 018 000 00
203030 1920N 09508W 9769 00302 0110 +243 +236 330028 028 019 000 03
203100 1919N 09509W 9771 00301 0111 +244 +233 331028 030 020 000 00
203130 1917N 09511W 9771 00301 0110 +244 +232 333029 029 020 000 03

[weathaguyry]

I agree, some Tropical Storm force winds were found, so I'd be very surprised if they didn't at least put the first advisory for Tropical Depression Four at the 5:00 EDT, convection looks good, and this thing isn't moving terribly fast to land

[RL3AO]

Clearly a tropical cyclone in my opinion. I expect a 30kt TD here at 21Z.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing some model guidance titled "Four" now, which indicates an upgrade to TD soon. It's very disorganized, and winds generally are 10-15 kts around the weak, poorly-defined LLC. Doesn't matter if it's ever called a TD or TS, as the impacts will be the same - gusty winds in squalls, light winds elsewhere. Heavy rain where the squalls move ashore.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 5m5 minutes ago

Well, that's a TD. I would guess to expect an advisory imminently.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 192041
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 33 20160619
203200 1916N 09512W 9771 00300 0110 +245 +230 334029 030 021 000 03
203230 1915N 09513W 9772 00300 0110 +245 +230 334029 029 019 001 03
203300 1913N 09515W 9771 00302 0111 +245 +231 336030 030 021 001 03
203330 1912N 09516W 9771 00302 0111 +245 +228 337031 032 021 001 00
203400 1910N 09518W 9771 00302 0112 +245 +225 337032 032 022 000 00
203430 1909N 09519W 9770 00303 0112 +245 +226 337033 033 023 000 00
203500 1908N 09521W 9771 00303 0112 +245 +226 336033 034 020 001 03
203530 1906N 09522W 9772 00302 0112 +247 +223 337034 035 024 000 03
203600 1904N 09522W 9766 00306 0111 +247 +221 331031 033 /// /// 03
203630 1903N 09520W 9771 00301 0112 +245 +224 328029 031 021 001 03
203700 1903N 09518W 9769 00305 0111 +247 +222 326028 031 022 000 00
203730 1902N 09516W 9789 00288 0112 +250 +217 326029 031 022 001 03
203800 1901N 09514W 9773 00298 0110 +250 +216 328029 030 021 001 00
203830 1900N 09513W 9785 00290 0111 +251 +224 327027 029 021 000 03
203900 1900N 09511W 9762 00307 0110 +250 +220 327028 029 022 001 03
203930 1859N 09510W 9774 00297 0111 +249 +225 326025 027 020 001 00
204000 1859N 09508W 9775 00298 0112 +250 +227 324025 026 019 002 00
204030 1858N 09506W 9778 00297 0113 +250 +229 323022 024 019 001 00
204100 1857N 09505W 9762 00312 0113 +250 +229 322021 023 018 001 00
204130 1857N 09503W 9772 00302 0113 +250 +232 319021 021 016 001 03

[Extratropical94]

[Aric Dunn]

Convection beginning to build in towards the center. Would not be surprised if by the time recon leaves we have solid blow up of convection and more TS winds. Assuming they dont collapse like they have the last 2 days. Though given the center is much more defined and convergence appears to be increasing I dont think we will lose this current convection as quickly.

[Hammy]

I'm not expecting an upgrade at 5pm--there's been no indication from NHC and they usually have some mention beforehand. They could be waiting for the mission to finish to issue a special advisory before 8pm or a bit earlier in order to get clearer intensity data.

[RL3AO]

I'm not expecting an upgrade at 5pm--there's been no indication from NHC and they usually have some mention beforehand. They could be waiting for the mission to finish to issue a special advisory before 8pm or a bit earlier in order to get clearer intensity data.

I'll be stunned if theres not an advisory at 5pm. That last pass was very close to advisory time and there could be ongoing discussions on watches/warnings with Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

More TS winds to the SW of center. though removed. VDM is out.. very unlikely they do not start advisories.