Ascending to 925mb level
URNT15 KNHC 192051
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 34 20160619
204200 1856N 09502W 9774 00301 0113 +250 +229 319022 022 016 000 03
204230 1855N 09500W 9769 00306 0114 +250 +229 316020 022 017 000 00
204300 1855N 09459W 9768 00306 0113 +250 +228 320020 020 015 000 03
204330 1854N 09457W 9771 00305 0114 +250 +227 320020 021 014 000 03
204400 1854N 09456W 9771 00305 0114 +250 +222 324020 021 013 000 00
204430 1853N 09454W 9772 00303 0114 +249 +226 322018 020 012 001 00
204500 1852N 09453W 9768 00306 0114 +245 +234 314019 019 015 000 00
204530 1852N 09451W 9762 00312 0114 +245 +235 301019 019 013 000 03
204600 1851N 09450W 9774 00301 0114 +246 +234 291019 020 017 000 00
204630 1851N 09448W 9772 00302 0113 +249 +234 290018 019 016 001 00
204700 1850N 09446W 9769 00305 0114 +250 +233 291018 019 012 002 03
204730 1849N 09445W 9746 00322 0110 +247 +231 291019 019 006 001 00
204800 1847N 09445W 9586 00474 0114 +235 +225 293019 019 011 001 03
204830 1846N 09445W 9414 00633 0117 +223 +214 299022 024 010 001 03
204900 1844N 09446W 9278 00760 0118 +216 +205 300024 025 010 001 03
204930 1843N 09446W 9249 00790 0121 +213 +203 300025 026 011 001 00
205000 1841N 09447W 9248 00792 0122 +211 +206 302023 025 010 001 05
205030 1841N 09448W 9245 00794 0122 +211 +208 305020 022 /// /// 03
205100 1843N 09448W 9234 00802 0121 +211 +204 300018 019 /// /// 05
205130 1844N 09448W 9252 00788 0121 +213 +200 300017 019 012 000 03
ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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srainhoutx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon
URNT12 KNHC 192045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL942016
A. 19/20:18:40Z
B. 19 deg 48 min N
094 deg 38 min W
C. NA
D. 29 kt
E. 034 deg 66 nm
F. 089 deg 26 kt
G. 035 deg 67 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 21 C / 402 m
J. 24 C / 309 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 34 KT 226 / 57 NM 20:35:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 023 / 32 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL942016
A. 19/20:18:40Z
B. 19 deg 48 min N
094 deg 38 min W
C. NA
D. 29 kt
E. 034 deg 66 nm
F. 089 deg 26 kt
G. 035 deg 67 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 21 C / 402 m
J. 24 C / 309 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 34 KT 226 / 57 NM 20:35:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 023 / 32 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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ATL: DANIELLE - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 94.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical
depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic
hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to
the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now
a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on
the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has
maximum winds near 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by
NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt
most of the day.
The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a
mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States.
This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24
hours, or perhaps sooner. The official NHC track forecast is close
to the GFS and ECMWF models.
The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the
depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for
slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land.
Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it
interacts with rugged terrain.
Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within
the state of Veracruz.
The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be
heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 94.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016
The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical
depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic
hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to
the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now
a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on
the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has
maximum winds near 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by
NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt
most of the day.
The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a
mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States.
This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24
hours, or perhaps sooner. The official NHC track forecast is close
to the GFS and ECMWF models.
The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the
depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for
slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land.
Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it
interacts with rugged terrain.
Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within
the state of Veracruz.
The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be
heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR- Tropical Depression - Discussion
There we go, TD Four is born.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re: ATL: FOUR- Tropical Depression - Discussion
Extratropical94 wrote:There we go, TD Four is born.
TS upgrade likely at 8pm then?
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 192102
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 35 20160619
205200 1846N 09448W 9250 00788 0120 +213 +203 298015 016 013 000 03
205230 1847N 09448W 9251 00787 0119 +212 +204 301014 014 014 000 00
205300 1849N 09448W 9249 00788 0119 +214 +204 304013 014 015 000 00
205330 1850N 09448W 9242 00793 0118 +211 +207 302013 014 012 000 01
205400 1852N 09448W 9250 00785 0118 +210 +206 310013 014 014 000 03
205430 1853N 09448W 9242 00792 0117 +210 +207 314013 014 013 000 05
205500 1855N 09448W 9249 00785 0116 +213 +205 316014 015 015 000 05
205530 1856N 09448W 9252 00782 0116 +210 +208 320015 016 014 000 05
205600 1858N 09448W 9240 00792 //// +210 //// 323015 016 012 000 01
205630 1859N 09448W 9250 00781 0112 +210 +207 326015 016 016 000 01
205700 1901N 09448W 9250 00781 0112 +214 +205 327016 017 017 001 03
205730 1902N 09448W 9250 00780 0111 +215 +205 325017 017 016 000 00
205800 1904N 09448W 9244 00786 0110 +216 +202 319016 017 013 001 03
205830 1905N 09447W 9253 00777 0110 +215 +205 315016 016 014 000 00
205900 1906N 09446W 9249 00779 0108 +216 +206 312014 016 016 000 00
205930 1907N 09445W 9248 00780 0107 +220 +202 307013 014 014 000 03
210000 1909N 09444W 9246 00782 0107 +222 +198 300014 014 015 000 00
210030 1910N 09443W 9250 00779 0107 +223 +197 298014 015 014 001 00
210100 1911N 09442W 9249 00779 0107 +220 +201 304015 016 013 001 03
210130 1913N 09441W 9249 00779 0106 +221 +197 298014 015 012 000 00
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 35 20160619
205200 1846N 09448W 9250 00788 0120 +213 +203 298015 016 013 000 03
205230 1847N 09448W 9251 00787 0119 +212 +204 301014 014 014 000 00
205300 1849N 09448W 9249 00788 0119 +214 +204 304013 014 015 000 00
205330 1850N 09448W 9242 00793 0118 +211 +207 302013 014 012 000 01
205400 1852N 09448W 9250 00785 0118 +210 +206 310013 014 014 000 03
205430 1853N 09448W 9242 00792 0117 +210 +207 314013 014 013 000 05
205500 1855N 09448W 9249 00785 0116 +213 +205 316014 015 015 000 05
205530 1856N 09448W 9252 00782 0116 +210 +208 320015 016 014 000 05
205600 1858N 09448W 9240 00792 //// +210 //// 323015 016 012 000 01
205630 1859N 09448W 9250 00781 0112 +210 +207 326015 016 016 000 01
205700 1901N 09448W 9250 00781 0112 +214 +205 327016 017 017 001 03
205730 1902N 09448W 9250 00780 0111 +215 +205 325017 017 016 000 00
205800 1904N 09448W 9244 00786 0110 +216 +202 319016 017 013 001 03
205830 1905N 09447W 9253 00777 0110 +215 +205 315016 016 014 000 00
205900 1906N 09446W 9249 00779 0108 +216 +206 312014 016 016 000 00
205930 1907N 09445W 9248 00780 0107 +220 +202 307013 014 014 000 03
210000 1909N 09444W 9246 00782 0107 +222 +198 300014 014 015 000 00
210030 1910N 09443W 9250 00779 0107 +223 +197 298014 015 014 001 00
210100 1911N 09442W 9249 00779 0107 +220 +201 304015 016 013 001 03
210130 1913N 09441W 9249 00779 0106 +221 +197 298014 015 012 000 00
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
-
Extratropical94
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- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FOUR- Tropical Depression - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:There we go, TD Four is born.
TS upgrade likely at 8pm then?
depending on recon and then convection..but not likely till 11.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR- Tropical Depression - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:There we go, TD Four is born.
TS upgrade likely at 8pm then?
That's hard to say, I'd go with no upgrade just yet, because the recon data doesn't really support 35 knots at the moment. Should the winds near the COC increase during the next 2 hours before the aircraft leaves, I'd assume that we will have Danielle at 8 or 11pm. If they stay weak, I don't think that they upgrade the system during the night based solely on sat imagery.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 192111
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 36 20160619
210200 1914N 09440W 9249 00779 0106 +222 +195 298013 014 015 000 03
210230 1915N 09439W 9248 00780 0107 +217 +199 301013 014 014 000 03
210300 1916N 09438W 9248 00780 0107 +216 +205 301013 013 013 001 03
210330 1918N 09437W 9248 00779 0107 +215 +201 298013 013 013 001 00
210400 1919N 09436W 9248 00780 0107 +216 +199 296011 013 014 001 00
210430 1920N 09435W 9249 00779 0106 +215 +205 288009 011 014 001 03
210500 1922N 09434W 9248 00780 0106 +215 +206 289010 010 011 000 03
210530 1923N 09434W 9250 00777 0107 +215 +206 298009 010 014 000 03
210600 1925N 09433W 9249 00777 0106 +215 +207 294007 009 014 000 00
210630 1926N 09433W 9246 00781 0107 +215 +206 286009 009 014 001 00
210700 1928N 09433W 9250 00776 0107 +215 +206 287009 009 013 001 00
210730 1929N 09432W 9246 00781 0108 +212 +209 289006 008 016 001 00
210800 1931N 09432W 9251 00772 0105 +212 +204 317004 005 014 002 00
210830 1932N 09432W 9244 00782 0109 +208 +204 299002 004 018 020 00
210900 1934N 09431W 9237 00791 0117 +207 +206 133003 005 036 048 03
210930 1936N 09431W 9245 00782 0113 +211 +209 158002 005 030 043 03
211000 1937N 09431W 9257 00775 0110 +218 +203 180002 002 012 004 03
211030 1939N 09431W 9249 00781 0109 +216 +206 157003 004 011 001 03
211100 1940N 09431W 9249 00781 0111 +215 +204 139003 004 009 000 03
211130 1942N 09431W 9248 00784 0110 +215 +201 152004 004 008 000 03
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 36 20160619
210200 1914N 09440W 9249 00779 0106 +222 +195 298013 014 015 000 03
210230 1915N 09439W 9248 00780 0107 +217 +199 301013 014 014 000 03
210300 1916N 09438W 9248 00780 0107 +216 +205 301013 013 013 001 03
210330 1918N 09437W 9248 00779 0107 +215 +201 298013 013 013 001 00
210400 1919N 09436W 9248 00780 0107 +216 +199 296011 013 014 001 00
210430 1920N 09435W 9249 00779 0106 +215 +205 288009 011 014 001 03
210500 1922N 09434W 9248 00780 0106 +215 +206 289010 010 011 000 03
210530 1923N 09434W 9250 00777 0107 +215 +206 298009 010 014 000 03
210600 1925N 09433W 9249 00777 0106 +215 +207 294007 009 014 000 00
210630 1926N 09433W 9246 00781 0107 +215 +206 286009 009 014 001 00
210700 1928N 09433W 9250 00776 0107 +215 +206 287009 009 013 001 00
210730 1929N 09432W 9246 00781 0108 +212 +209 289006 008 016 001 00
210800 1931N 09432W 9251 00772 0105 +212 +204 317004 005 014 002 00
210830 1932N 09432W 9244 00782 0109 +208 +204 299002 004 018 020 00
210900 1934N 09431W 9237 00791 0117 +207 +206 133003 005 036 048 03
210930 1936N 09431W 9245 00782 0113 +211 +209 158002 005 030 043 03
211000 1937N 09431W 9257 00775 0110 +218 +203 180002 002 012 004 03
211030 1939N 09431W 9249 00781 0109 +216 +206 157003 004 011 001 03
211100 1940N 09431W 9249 00781 0111 +215 +204 139003 004 009 000 03
211130 1942N 09431W 9248 00784 0110 +215 +201 152004 004 008 000 03
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 192121
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 37 20160619
211200 1944N 09431W 9250 00779 0109 +216 +200 142005 006 010 002 03
211230 1945N 09431W 9250 00779 0109 +218 +198 142006 006 007 001 03
211300 1947N 09431W 9248 00781 0108 +215 +202 142007 008 007 000 03
211330 1948N 09431W 9249 00779 0109 +215 +203 140008 008 009 000 03
211400 1950N 09431W 9251 00779 0110 +211 +205 128011 013 010 000 03
211430 1952N 09431W 9250 00780 0110 +210 +202 127015 017 013 000 03
211500 1953N 09431W 9250 00775 0106 +212 +196 122020 021 015 000 03
211530 1955N 09431W 9249 00775 0103 +216 +193 117024 026 014 000 03
211600 1957N 09431W 9248 00775 0103 +210 +196 117025 026 014 001 03
211630 1958N 09431W 9250 00773 0103 +214 +196 118025 026 012 001 00
211700 2000N 09431W 9249 00775 0103 +213 +197 118025 026 013 000 00
211730 2002N 09431W 9248 00776 0102 +219 +193 118024 026 013 001 03
211800 2002N 09431W 9248 00776 0102 +220 +191 114024 025 014 001 00
211830 2005N 09431W 9246 00776 0102 +219 +189 114025 025 017 000 00
211900 2007N 09431W 9251 00771 0103 +216 +190 114025 026 019 001 03
211930 2008N 09431W 9248 00776 0103 +217 +194 114025 025 019 000 03
212000 2010N 09431W 9248 00776 0104 +219 +192 114023 024 021 000 00
212030 2012N 09431W 9248 00776 0103 +221 +194 115024 024 020 000 03
212100 2013N 09431W 9252 00774 0104 +220 +186 116024 025 020 000 00
212130 2015N 09431W 9249 00776 0104 +221 +182 118024 025 018 001 03
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 37 20160619
211200 1944N 09431W 9250 00779 0109 +216 +200 142005 006 010 002 03
211230 1945N 09431W 9250 00779 0109 +218 +198 142006 006 007 001 03
211300 1947N 09431W 9248 00781 0108 +215 +202 142007 008 007 000 03
211330 1948N 09431W 9249 00779 0109 +215 +203 140008 008 009 000 03
211400 1950N 09431W 9251 00779 0110 +211 +205 128011 013 010 000 03
211430 1952N 09431W 9250 00780 0110 +210 +202 127015 017 013 000 03
211500 1953N 09431W 9250 00775 0106 +212 +196 122020 021 015 000 03
211530 1955N 09431W 9249 00775 0103 +216 +193 117024 026 014 000 03
211600 1957N 09431W 9248 00775 0103 +210 +196 117025 026 014 001 03
211630 1958N 09431W 9250 00773 0103 +214 +196 118025 026 012 001 00
211700 2000N 09431W 9249 00775 0103 +213 +197 118025 026 013 000 00
211730 2002N 09431W 9248 00776 0102 +219 +193 118024 026 013 001 03
211800 2002N 09431W 9248 00776 0102 +220 +191 114024 025 014 001 00
211830 2005N 09431W 9246 00776 0102 +219 +189 114025 025 017 000 00
211900 2007N 09431W 9251 00771 0103 +216 +190 114025 026 019 001 03
211930 2008N 09431W 9248 00776 0103 +217 +194 114025 025 019 000 03
212000 2010N 09431W 9248 00776 0104 +219 +192 114023 024 021 000 00
212030 2012N 09431W 9248 00776 0103 +221 +194 115024 024 020 000 03
212100 2013N 09431W 9252 00774 0104 +220 +186 116024 025 020 000 00
212130 2015N 09431W 9249 00776 0104 +221 +182 118024 025 018 001 03
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FOUR- Tropical Depression - Discussion
The center is bouncing around with the new convection. nonetheless should organize enough for TS before landfall. especially once the shear drops some more.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 192131
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 38 20160619
212200 2017N 09431W 9248 00776 0105 +220 +183 119024 025 019 001 03
212230 2018N 09431W 9250 00775 0106 +220 +187 115023 024 021 000 03
212300 2020N 09431W 9249 00777 0105 +221 +183 115023 023 023 000 00
212330 2022N 09431W 9249 00777 0106 +225 +178 115022 023 021 000 03
212400 2023N 09431W 9248 00779 0106 +222 +189 115022 022 021 000 03
212430 2025N 09431W 9245 00782 0106 +219 +193 116021 022 022 000 00
212500 2027N 09431W 9253 00775 0107 +221 +188 118022 022 021 000 03
212530 2028N 09431W 9245 00781 0107 +220 +183 118022 023 021 000 03
212600 2030N 09431W 9250 00777 0107 +224 +175 112024 025 020 000 03
212630 2032N 09431W 9252 00776 0107 +223 +177 114023 024 023 000 00
212700 2033N 09431W 9248 00781 0109 +218 +183 111024 024 025 001 00
212730 2035N 09431W 9247 00782 0110 +213 +192 112023 025 022 003 03
212800 2037N 09431W 9252 00777 0110 +215 +191 116022 022 026 001 00
212830 2038N 09431W 9248 00781 0110 +215 +194 116023 023 023 000 03
212900 2040N 09431W 9250 00779 0110 +215 +194 115023 024 023 000 00
212930 2042N 09431W 9246 00782 0110 +215 +196 117024 025 024 000 03
213000 2043N 09431W 9250 00780 0111 +212 +197 120026 027 024 000 03
213030 2045N 09431W 9248 00780 0110 +212 +193 121029 030 024 001 00
213100 2047N 09431W 9248 00780 0111 +213 +196 120028 029 024 001 00
213130 2048N 09431W 9255 00774 0111 +214 +199 119028 029 024 001 03
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 38 20160619
212200 2017N 09431W 9248 00776 0105 +220 +183 119024 025 019 001 03
212230 2018N 09431W 9250 00775 0106 +220 +187 115023 024 021 000 03
212300 2020N 09431W 9249 00777 0105 +221 +183 115023 023 023 000 00
212330 2022N 09431W 9249 00777 0106 +225 +178 115022 023 021 000 03
212400 2023N 09431W 9248 00779 0106 +222 +189 115022 022 021 000 03
212430 2025N 09431W 9245 00782 0106 +219 +193 116021 022 022 000 00
212500 2027N 09431W 9253 00775 0107 +221 +188 118022 022 021 000 03
212530 2028N 09431W 9245 00781 0107 +220 +183 118022 023 021 000 03
212600 2030N 09431W 9250 00777 0107 +224 +175 112024 025 020 000 03
212630 2032N 09431W 9252 00776 0107 +223 +177 114023 024 023 000 00
212700 2033N 09431W 9248 00781 0109 +218 +183 111024 024 025 001 00
212730 2035N 09431W 9247 00782 0110 +213 +192 112023 025 022 003 03
212800 2037N 09431W 9252 00777 0110 +215 +191 116022 022 026 001 00
212830 2038N 09431W 9248 00781 0110 +215 +194 116023 023 023 000 03
212900 2040N 09431W 9250 00779 0110 +215 +194 115023 024 023 000 00
212930 2042N 09431W 9246 00782 0110 +215 +196 117024 025 024 000 03
213000 2043N 09431W 9250 00780 0111 +212 +197 120026 027 024 000 03
213030 2045N 09431W 9248 00780 0110 +212 +193 121029 030 024 001 00
213100 2047N 09431W 9248 00780 0111 +213 +196 120028 029 024 001 00
213130 2048N 09431W 9255 00774 0111 +214 +199 119028 029 024 001 03
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 192141
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 39 20160619
213200 2050N 09431W 9241 00787 0111 +212 +198 123028 028 024 003 00
213230 2052N 09431W 9250 00780 0112 +209 +202 125027 028 025 002 00
213300 2053N 09431W 9245 00784 //// +201 //// 125028 029 024 003 05
213330 2055N 09431W 9249 00781 0112 +212 +200 126028 029 023 001 00
213400 2057N 09431W 9252 00779 0113 +213 +199 124027 028 023 001 03
213430 2059N 09431W 9247 00785 0113 +215 +192 121026 027 025 001 00
213500 2100N 09431W 9248 00784 0112 +218 +186 114027 028 025 001 03
213530 2102N 09431W 9250 00781 0114 +214 +180 112028 029 026 000 00
213600 2104N 09431W 9253 00780 0114 +213 +183 110025 027 026 001 03
213630 2105N 09431W 9249 00782 0115 +211 +186 111030 032 026 000 03
213700 2107N 09431W 9253 00780 0115 +210 +187 110031 032 024 000 00
213730 2108N 09431W 9246 00786 0116 +211 +180 109029 030 025 001 03
213800 2110N 09431W 9253 00780 0116 +210 +193 110028 030 027 001 03
213830 2112N 09431W 9250 00782 0116 +205 +200 111029 030 025 001 00
213900 2113N 09431W 9248 00784 0116 +206 +200 114029 030 026 002 03
213930 2115N 09431W 9251 00781 0115 +208 +191 115030 031 027 000 00
214000 2117N 09431W 9251 00781 0116 +210 +194 115030 031 024 001 03
214030 2118N 09431W 9250 00781 0115 +210 +198 109026 028 021 001 03
214100 2120N 09431W 9248 00785 0117 +203 +198 116027 028 028 002 00
214130 2122N 09431W 9251 00781 0117 +205 +192 116027 028 029 003 00
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 39 20160619
213200 2050N 09431W 9241 00787 0111 +212 +198 123028 028 024 003 00
213230 2052N 09431W 9250 00780 0112 +209 +202 125027 028 025 002 00
213300 2053N 09431W 9245 00784 //// +201 //// 125028 029 024 003 05
213330 2055N 09431W 9249 00781 0112 +212 +200 126028 029 023 001 00
213400 2057N 09431W 9252 00779 0113 +213 +199 124027 028 023 001 03
213430 2059N 09431W 9247 00785 0113 +215 +192 121026 027 025 001 00
213500 2100N 09431W 9248 00784 0112 +218 +186 114027 028 025 001 03
213530 2102N 09431W 9250 00781 0114 +214 +180 112028 029 026 000 00
213600 2104N 09431W 9253 00780 0114 +213 +183 110025 027 026 001 03
213630 2105N 09431W 9249 00782 0115 +211 +186 111030 032 026 000 03
213700 2107N 09431W 9253 00780 0115 +210 +187 110031 032 024 000 00
213730 2108N 09431W 9246 00786 0116 +211 +180 109029 030 025 001 03
213800 2110N 09431W 9253 00780 0116 +210 +193 110028 030 027 001 03
213830 2112N 09431W 9250 00782 0116 +205 +200 111029 030 025 001 00
213900 2113N 09431W 9248 00784 0116 +206 +200 114029 030 026 002 03
213930 2115N 09431W 9251 00781 0115 +208 +191 115030 031 027 000 00
214000 2117N 09431W 9251 00781 0116 +210 +194 115030 031 024 001 03
214030 2118N 09431W 9250 00781 0115 +210 +198 109026 028 021 001 03
214100 2120N 09431W 9248 00785 0117 +203 +198 116027 028 028 002 00
214130 2122N 09431W 9251 00781 0117 +205 +192 116027 028 029 003 00
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
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Re: ATL: FOUR- Tropical Depression - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Hammy wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:There we go, TD Four is born.
TS upgrade likely at 8pm then?
depending on recon and then convection..but not likely till 11.
SAB is at 1.0 so I don't this gets upgraded till recon.
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 192151
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 40 20160619
214200 2123N 09431W 9250 00784 0118 +203 +190 115028 029 030 004 00
214230 2125N 09431W 9245 00788 0119 +205 +178 116028 029 029 003 00
214300 2127N 09431W 9244 00790 0119 +204 +190 119031 031 027 004 00
214330 2128N 09431W 9245 00788 0119 +207 +182 119033 034 025 002 03
214400 2130N 09431W 9252 00785 0122 +205 +180 115032 035 028 001 00
214430 2132N 09431W 9242 00792 0122 +197 +192 120030 030 028 005 03
214500 2133N 09431W 9251 00786 0122 +204 //// 126027 030 030 005 01
214530 2135N 09431W 9251 00785 //// +205 //// 115026 028 029 006 01
214600 2137N 09431W 9247 00788 0119 +205 +201 114029 030 028 002 05
214630 2138N 09431W 9245 00791 0121 +204 +203 120031 031 022 000 01
214700 2140N 09431W 9250 00787 0121 +209 +200 119030 031 022 001 00
214730 2142N 09431W 9250 00787 0121 +208 +201 118029 030 018 001 03
214800 2143N 09431W 9248 00788 0120 +207 +200 122028 029 022 000 03
214830 2145N 09431W 9248 00788 0122 +205 +201 120025 028 024 007 00
214900 2147N 09431W 9247 00788 0121 +200 +198 123028 030 028 003 00
214930 2148N 09431W 9257 00780 0120 +205 +192 119029 032 026 002 03
215000 2150N 09431W 9251 00780 0119 +203 +202 126027 028 023 004 00
215030 2152N 09431W 9243 00791 //// +198 //// 124029 030 029 001 05
215100 2153N 09431W 9249 00784 0118 +204 +203 119029 030 025 003 03
215130 2155N 09431W 9255 00779 0123 +196 //// 114028 031 034 028 05
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 40 20160619
214200 2123N 09431W 9250 00784 0118 +203 +190 115028 029 030 004 00
214230 2125N 09431W 9245 00788 0119 +205 +178 116028 029 029 003 00
214300 2127N 09431W 9244 00790 0119 +204 +190 119031 031 027 004 00
214330 2128N 09431W 9245 00788 0119 +207 +182 119033 034 025 002 03
214400 2130N 09431W 9252 00785 0122 +205 +180 115032 035 028 001 00
214430 2132N 09431W 9242 00792 0122 +197 +192 120030 030 028 005 03
214500 2133N 09431W 9251 00786 0122 +204 //// 126027 030 030 005 01
214530 2135N 09431W 9251 00785 //// +205 //// 115026 028 029 006 01
214600 2137N 09431W 9247 00788 0119 +205 +201 114029 030 028 002 05
214630 2138N 09431W 9245 00791 0121 +204 +203 120031 031 022 000 01
214700 2140N 09431W 9250 00787 0121 +209 +200 119030 031 022 001 00
214730 2142N 09431W 9250 00787 0121 +208 +201 118029 030 018 001 03
214800 2143N 09431W 9248 00788 0120 +207 +200 122028 029 022 000 03
214830 2145N 09431W 9248 00788 0122 +205 +201 120025 028 024 007 00
214900 2147N 09431W 9247 00788 0121 +200 +198 123028 030 028 003 00
214930 2148N 09431W 9257 00780 0120 +205 +192 119029 032 026 002 03
215000 2150N 09431W 9251 00780 0119 +203 +202 126027 028 023 004 00
215030 2152N 09431W 9243 00791 //// +198 //// 124029 030 029 001 05
215100 2153N 09431W 9249 00784 0118 +204 +203 119029 030 025 003 03
215130 2155N 09431W 9255 00779 0123 +196 //// 114028 031 034 028 05
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 192201
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 41 20160619
215200 2157N 09431W 9241 00791 //// +202 //// 109030 033 025 003 01
215230 2158N 09431W 9254 00778 //// +206 //// 109032 034 020 002 01
215300 2200N 09431W 9248 00786 //// +205 //// 112034 034 021 001 05
215330 2201N 09431W 9244 00789 //// +204 //// 115032 035 021 001 05
215400 2203N 09431W 9249 00785 0117 +205 +202 124030 031 024 002 01
215430 2205N 09431W 9248 00785 0116 +207 +196 125031 031 026 002 03
215500 2207N 09431W 9249 00782 0115 +211 +186 123031 031 021 001 03
215530 2208N 09431W 9254 00779 0117 +202 +191 120032 034 027 002 00
215600 2210N 09431W 9248 00781 0122 +199 +199 120031 034 028 017 00
215630 2212N 09431W 9249 00780 0118 +205 //// 106033 034 027 031 05
215700 2213N 09431W 9251 00779 0112 +209 +200 103031 034 030 002 05
215730 2215N 09431W 9227 00803 0114 +209 +201 105027 029 029 001 01
215800 2216N 09431W 9254 00779 0114 +208 +205 107030 031 030 002 01
215830 2218N 09431W 9248 00785 0117 +204 +197 107031 032 030 005 03
215900 2220N 09431W 9244 00789 0116 +210 +201 106032 033 032 002 03
215930 2221N 09431W 9249 00785 0117 +210 +197 107033 034 029 001 03
220000 2223N 09431W 9252 00784 0118 +210 +196 107032 033 024 001 00
220030 2224N 09431W 9246 00790 0119 +207 +202 106033 033 026 001 05
220100 2226N 09431W 9248 00789 0119 +206 +204 106031 033 028 001 01
220130 2228N 09431W 9243 00792 0118 +207 +203 103029 032 025 001 01
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 41 20160619
215200 2157N 09431W 9241 00791 //// +202 //// 109030 033 025 003 01
215230 2158N 09431W 9254 00778 //// +206 //// 109032 034 020 002 01
215300 2200N 09431W 9248 00786 //// +205 //// 112034 034 021 001 05
215330 2201N 09431W 9244 00789 //// +204 //// 115032 035 021 001 05
215400 2203N 09431W 9249 00785 0117 +205 +202 124030 031 024 002 01
215430 2205N 09431W 9248 00785 0116 +207 +196 125031 031 026 002 03
215500 2207N 09431W 9249 00782 0115 +211 +186 123031 031 021 001 03
215530 2208N 09431W 9254 00779 0117 +202 +191 120032 034 027 002 00
215600 2210N 09431W 9248 00781 0122 +199 +199 120031 034 028 017 00
215630 2212N 09431W 9249 00780 0118 +205 //// 106033 034 027 031 05
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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