ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon

#221 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:37 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 201036
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 41 20160620
102630 2003N 09525W 8432 01587 0130 +159 +073 268018 018 020 008 00
102700 2005N 09525W 8430 01586 0134 +153 +067 268016 018 023 009 00
102730 2006N 09526W 8429 01588 0135 +151 +069 268015 016 022 009 00
102800 2008N 09526W 8429 01585 0131 +158 +061 266015 017 022 008 00
102830 2009N 09526W 8427 01592 0131 +157 +056 250015 017 020 010 00
102900 2011N 09526W 8430 01584 0128 +160 +059 244016 018 020 010 03
102930 2013N 09527W 8431 01583 0125 +165 +056 234014 015 020 008 00
103000 2014N 09528W 8429 01586 0122 +169 +055 218013 013 019 009 03
103030 2015N 09529W 8429 01584 0119 +171 +062 197010 013 018 008 03
103100 2016N 09530W 8429 01588 0121 +168 +060 193010 011 026 009 00
103130 2017N 09532W 8431 01581 0122 +164 +059 173009 009 026 008 03
103200 2017N 09534W 8430 01583 0124 +160 +059 194007 009 029 011 03
103230 2017N 09535W 8429 01582 0121 +164 +057 207008 010 024 015 00
103300 2018N 09537W 8427 01585 0126 +158 +056 189011 011 029 015 00
103330 2018N 09539W 8433 01578 0118 +165 +057 217011 012 028 015 03
103400 2019N 09540W 8424 01585 0121 +159 +052 214015 016 024 011 00
103430 2020N 09541W 8429 01577 0117 +161 +053 217017 018 026 009 00
103500 2021N 09543W 8434 01571 0114 +162 +057 226021 023 025 006 00
103530 2022N 09544W 8425 01580 0111 +165 +053 225025 025 022 007 00
103600 2023N 09545W 8434 01570 0107 +169 +058 227026 026 026 007 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#222 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:40 am

Yeap, shear dropped just like the GFS and Euro had indicated over the last couple of days that it was going to drop during the night.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon

#223 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:48 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 201046
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 42 20160620
103630 2024N 09547W 8410 01591 0110 +158 +058 217026 028 028 010 00
103700 2025N 09548W 8434 01562 0106 +161 +059 221030 031 027 005 01
103730 2026N 09549W 8429 01563 0097 +168 +059 224029 031 026 004 00
103800 2027N 09550W 8424 01566 0096 +161 +063 228024 026 026 005 00
103830 2028N 09552W 8429 01560 0096 +157 +064 232019 024 023 005 00
103900 2030N 09553W 8432 01557 0092 +160 +065 244016 017 019 006 00
103930 2031N 09554W 8434 01549 0086 +166 +071 251017 019 021 004 03
104000 2033N 09554W 8425 01558 0080 +174 +066 242014 016 021 005 00
104030 2034N 09555W 8437 01545 0075 +180 +072 254006 011 014 005 03
104100 2036N 09555W 8426 01551 0079 +170 +076 350003 004 016 004 03
104130 2037N 09555W 8425 01550 0075 +170 +071 087008 011 020 003 01
104200 2039N 09555W 8429 01550 0075 +172 +084 105020 024 022 005 00
104230 2040N 09554W 8432 01547 0078 +172 +078 114026 027 028 004 00
104300 2042N 09554W 8433 01551 0089 +164 +078 114031 032 030 005 01
104330 2044N 09554W 8429 01560 0089 +167 +081 113035 037 031 004 01
104400 2045N 09554W 8426 01563 0090 +169 +081 114036 037 025 006 01
104430 2047N 09554W 8433 01558 0092 +172 +081 115034 035 028 004 00
104500 2049N 09554W 8425 01567 0097 +162 +077 118038 039 026 005 01
104530 2051N 09554W 8434 01558 0104 +156 +082 116045 047 028 006 01
104600 2053N 09554W 8424 01574 0105 +158 +081 114047 048 029 009 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#224 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:49 am

Latest recon reported 48 kt flight-level winds with an extrapolated pressure of 1007.5 mb. No doubt that it's a TS.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#225 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:49 am

Recon is finally reporting some higher flight level winds and much closer to the LLC.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#226 Postby Hammy » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:52 am

NDG wrote:Recon is finally reporting some higher flight level winds and much closer to the LLC.


Surface winds still seem to be in the 25-30kt range though so that doesn't appear to be reaching the surface.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#227 Postby xironman » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:52 am

Looks like it is in no hurry to go ashore.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#228 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:54 am

Peak wind just recorded at 48kts, maybe an upgrade at 8:00AM?
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#229 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:55 am

Hammy wrote:
NDG wrote:Recon is finally reporting some higher flight level winds and much closer to the LLC.


Surface winds still seem to be in the 25-30kt range though so that doesn't appear to be reaching the surface.


May be reaching the ground yet but at least is better organized. I wouldn't doubt if they go ahead with an upgrade to TS by 7 AM DST.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#230 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:58 am

39kt surface winds from the vortex message combined with 48 kt FL winds. This is a TS. Question is 35 or 40 knots.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon

#231 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:58 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 201056
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 43 20160620
104630 2054N 09555W 8431 01567 0108 +155 +070 114050 051 031 008 01
104700 2056N 09555W 8421 01579 0103 +166 +066 115048 049 034 006 01
104730 2056N 09555W 8421 01579 0108 +163 +064 114048 050 033 006 00
104800 2059N 09557W 8430 01573 0113 +160 +054 109045 047 033 007 01
104830 2101N 09559W 8430 01575 0118 +152 +062 108043 044 034 010 01
104900 2102N 09600W 8432 01572 0118 +156 +057 107040 043 034 009 00
104930 2104N 09602W 8427 01579 0115 +160 +056 109040 041 033 008 00
105000 2105N 09603W 8430 01575 0116 +160 +066 109038 039 030 006 00
105030 2106N 09604W 8429 01578 0119 +158 +062 106037 038 027 010 01
105100 2108N 09606W 8428 01579 0129 +143 +054 102038 039 028 011 03
105130 2109N 09608W 8429 01579 0125 +150 +053 105032 036 039 011 00
105200 2110N 09609W 8432 01576 0124 +155 +052 112033 034 029 009 03
105230 2111N 09611W 8433 01578 0120 +163 +052 114031 032 028 006 00
105300 2112N 09612W 8428 01584 0119 +164 +050 115030 033 025 006 00
105330 2113N 09614W 8426 01586 0120 +165 +047 116028 029 025 006 01
105400 2113N 09616W 8429 01582 0118 +165 +061 114029 030 018 008 00
105430 2114N 09618W 8430 01578 0120 +162 +051 112030 031 022 008 00
105500 2114N 09620W 8425 01585 0123 +159 +051 109028 029 020 009 00
105530 2115N 09622W 8433 01578 0127 +153 +061 104027 028 020 007 00
105600 2115N 09624W 8428 01586 0125 +160 +056 105025 027 018 006 00
$$
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#232 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:58 am

51 knots flight level winds, just found. Enough for a TS upgrade, IMO.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon

#233 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:02 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#234 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:03 am

RL3AO wrote:39kt surface winds from the vortex message combined with 48 kt FL winds. This is a TS. Question is 35 or 40 knots.


That vortex message you are referring to was from the previous pass, which would had been enough, but I think they were waiting for them to find higher flight level winds.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon

#235 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:03 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 201101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042016
A. 20/10:41:00Z
B. 20 deg 35 min N
095 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1479 m
D. 40 kt
E. 140 deg 101 nm
F. 224 deg 31 kt
G. 146 deg 11 nm
H. 1008 mb
I. 16 C / 1524 m
J. 18 C / 1518 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0204A CYCLONE OB 13
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 52 KT 002 / 18 NM 10:46:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 18 KT
;
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#236 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:05 am

Here's the new one, I guess they will go with 40 kt.

000
URNT12 KNHC 201101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042016
A. 20/10:41:00Z
B. 20 deg 35 min N
095 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1479 m
D. 40 kt
E. 140 deg 101 nm
F. 224 deg 31 kt
G. 146 deg 11 nm
H. 1008 mb
I. 16 C / 1524 m
J. 18 C / 1518 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0204A CYCLONE OB 13
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 52 KT 002 / 18 NM 10:46:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 18 KT
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon

#237 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:08 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 201106
AF308 0204A CYCLONE HDOB 44 20160620
105630 2116N 09626W 8425 01589 0124 +160 +051 107024 024 018 005 00
105700 2116N 09626W 8425 01589 0125 +162 +050 108024 025 016 006 00
105730 2117N 09630W 8431 01581 0122 +166 +056 109025 026 011 007 00
105800 2117N 09632W 8430 01581 0123 +163 +057 111025 026 010 007 00
105830 2117N 09633W 8431 01581 0127 +160 +060 107024 026 011 006 00
105900 2118N 09635W 8430 01585 0127 +160 +062 108022 023 012 006 00
105930 2119N 09637W 8426 01589 0126 +160 +063 112021 022 014 004 00
110000 2120N 09638W 8428 01587 0129 +156 +064 114021 021 011 006 00
110030 2121N 09640W 8434 01581 0131 +155 +061 115022 023 012 007 00
110100 2122N 09641W 8431 01585 0129 +156 +065 118021 022 012 010 00
110130 2124N 09643W 8428 01588 0128 +160 +063 120020 021 012 009 00
110200 2125N 09644W 8429 01590 0128 +160 +062 117021 022 011 010 00
110230 2126N 09646W 8432 01586 0130 +160 +064 114020 021 013 007 00
110300 2127N 09647W 8428 01591 0130 +160 +064 115019 020 015 007 00
110330 2128N 09648W 8429 01588 0132 +158 +068 112018 019 015 007 00
110400 2130N 09650W 8436 01586 0135 +154 +065 111018 019 015 007 00
110430 2131N 09651W 8427 01590 0134 +155 +059 111020 021 015 007 00
110500 2132N 09653W 8433 01586 0140 +147 +064 113021 022 016 011 00
110530 2133N 09654W 8432 01586 0141 +145 +059 114021 022 017 010 00
110600 2134N 09655W 8427 01592 0142 +143 +057 113022 023 021 011 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#238 Postby xironman » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:14 am

Looks like it will come in a bit north of the 4am forecast.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#239 Postby Hammy » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:15 am

xironman wrote:Looks like it will come in a bit north of the 4am forecast.


Seems to be headed straight to the NW, with a very slight northward curve on the third fix.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Recon

#240 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:16 am

Through HDOB 44:
Image
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