ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#61 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 8:58 am

I'm quite confident the NHC will call this a depression this afternoon. It's already better organized than Colin ever was (that's not saying much). Of course, no ASCAT has hit the BoC over the past 24-36 hours, typical for areas with little other data. Main impacts will be gusty winds, rough seas around squalls in the BoC then some heavy rain moving into Mexico tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#62 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:04 am

A quick look at visible has me thinking this is a TD. We'll have to watch for a tweet from NHC in the next 20 minutes if they're gonna start advisories at 15Z or wait for recon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#63 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:06 am

RL3AO wrote:A quick look at visible has me thinking this is a TD. We'll have to watch for a tweet from NHC in the next 20 minutes if they're gonna start advisories at 15Z or wait for recon.


I personally think it might already be a TS. A weak one but a TS.

Looks like I should of kept my percentage chances of it developing higher than 20 %. Didn't think shear would relax it might come back but as of now a weak TS in my opinion. Already looks better than Bonnie or Colin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:21 am

Looks like a TD but we'll see if this blowup persists unlike the one yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#65 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:21 am

Some bouy readings:

North of the circulation
NDBC
Location: 22.120N 93.96W
Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2016 13:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (94°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and rising
Air Temperature: 84.0 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 84.9 F

On the coast sw of the circulation
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2016 14:00:00 UTC
Winds: NW (320°) at 7.0 kt gusting to 8.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and rising
Air Temperature: 80.4 F
Dew Point: 75.7 F
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#66 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:22 am

Buoy 42055 in the Bay of Campeche, about 214 Nautical Miles NE of Veracruz has had sustained winds nearing 30 kts all night with gusts to near 35 kts. Little doubt a Depression has formed and I would not be surprised to see TS Danielle make landfall near Tampico tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#67 Postby tolakram » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:26 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:38 am

Comming from this fellow is a very telling message.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 2m2 minutes ago

#94L trying to come together in the Bay of Campeche- should be an interesting afternoon recon flight
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#69 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:43 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon - Plane departs around 11:30 AM EDT

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:50 am

I can't post the HDOB,s for this mission so who wants to volunteer?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#71 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:11 am

With Colin being classified as a TS with pretty much straight-line winds along a linear band of convection, I have no doubt the plane will find SFMR winds of 35kts in the squalls across the BoC. That means we'll have "Danielle" this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#72 Postby xcool22 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:22 am

GOM IS hot spot THIS YEAR

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#73 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:35 am

The BOC once again is working its usual effect with helping to coalesce tropical cyclones. I fully expect this will be named Danielle this afternoon. The system has been coming together nicely all morning long. Heck, it looks better than Colin ever did. I would not be surprised the cyclone gets stronger, as I mentioned yesterday. I feel it can get maybe to 50-55kt before landfall, but will fall short of making a run at cane status by running out of time over open water.

I am always amazed at watching tropical cyclones develop in the Bay of Campeche.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#74 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:42 am

I will start posting once the plane descends to operational altitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#75 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:47 am

Looks sheared with little banding, but assuming persistence, I think this is classifiable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#76 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:54 am

Wind Shear is still moderate and doesn't look to come down until it hits the immediate coast. My prediction from yesterday of a 35-40kt TS Danielle(breaking the earliest "D" storm record) still seems reasonable.

Though it's the Bay of Campeche so 94L may have some more tricks up it's sleeve! :wink:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#77 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:01 am

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Calibrated ECMWF EPS Guidance indicating over a 90% for invest 94L to develop into a tropical cyclone.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#78 Postby psyclone » Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:05 am

system looks decent...certainly number-worthy IMO. Naturally I agree with those stating it looks better than Colin ever did. it looks like a legit developing TC...just too short of a runway to amount to much.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#79 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:55 am

It has moved very little in the past few hours if at all. Could it be because it was tugged on by convection or something. I am not a MET of course but looking at the satellite it seems to have done the same thing Bonnie did for a little while and slowed down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#80 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:57 am

That's why I think that this may be a little stronger than we expected, because it is over warm water, with the curvature of the land helping this out
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