ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#81 Postby Hammy » Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:09 pm

Circulation looks quite elongated to the south and the convection is waning, I don't see this becoming a TS before landfall especially if we don't have an overnight recon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#82 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:33 pm

The plane has started to descend.

URNT15 KNHC 191731
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 14 20160619
172200 2408N 09441W 3929 07735 0425 -175 -199 198011 012 024 000 00
172230 2406N 09443W 3928 07737 0424 -175 -211 197009 011 024 000 00
172300 2404N 09445W 3928 07734 0423 -179 -207 194009 009 027 000 00
172330 2402N 09447W 3928 07737 0424 -172 -206 190009 010 031 005 00
172400 2400N 09449W 3929 07734 0424 -179 -197 168005 010 030 011 00
172430 2358N 09451W 3925 07740 0424 -185 -190 190003 004 029 004 00
172500 2356N 09453W 3927 07738 0425 -184 -198 158003 004 029 004 00
172530 2354N 09454W 3926 07741 0427 -173 -199 165004 005 029 004 00
172600 2352N 09456W 3930 07735 0427 -172 -239 180004 005 028 000 00
172630 2350N 09458W 3927 07739 0426 -175 -281 215002 004 026 001 00
172700 2348N 09500W 3926 07740 0426 -172 -255 227002 004 025 001 00
172730 2346N 09502W 3927 07740 0427 -174 -232 219005 006 025 000 00
172800 2344N 09504W 3927 07740 0427 -176 -226 226004 004 027 000 00
172830 2342N 09506W 3927 07742 0429 -175 -213 186006 007 026 000 00
172900 2340N 09508W 3929 07739 0430 -176 -207 170005 007 026 000 00
172930 2338N 09509W 3933 07739 0436 -172 -216 143004 005 027 000 00
173000 2336N 09511W 4069 07495 0432 -157 -210 071003 005 027 000 00
173030 2334N 09513W 4237 07192 0418 -136 -241 042007 008 028 000 00
173100 2332N 09515W 4416 06880 0401 -109 -251 050009 010 028 000 00
173130 2331N 09517W 4578 06582 0364 -092 -160 075015 017 028 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#83 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:36 pm

Hammy wrote:Circulation looks quite elongated to the south and the convection is waning, I don't see this becoming a TS before landfall especially if we don't have an overnight recon.


I'm tending to agree with you Hammy; minimul pulsating convection in light of present upper conditions, is thus far retarding much capacity for pressures to further fall. Strong bursting of convection could occur at any time and that procees would work toward temporarily negating the southwesterly shear. All in all, its quickly running out of time and will have to make a fairly impressive run of it this evening, should it have a chance to get tagged as a T.S.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#84 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:43 pm

URNT15 KNHC 191741
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 15 20160619
173200 2329N 09518W 4703 06366 0345 -087 -108 070017 018 027 000 00
173230 2327N 09520W 4831 06156 0330 -077 -098 084016 017 027 001 00
173300 2325N 09522W 4962 05947 0317 -064 -096 097015 015 026 000 00
173330 2323N 09524W 5094 05739 0303 -050 -072 093017 020 028 000 00
173400 2322N 09525W 5231 05528 0290 -042 -048 093023 023 029 000 00
173430 2320N 09527W 5370 05322 0279 -033 -036 099023 023 029 001 00
173500 2318N 09528W 5509 05121 0118 -026 //// 099022 024 030 003 05
173530 2316N 09530W 5661 04905 //// -009 //// 093025 025 034 009 01
173600 2315N 09532W 5822 04682 0119 +003 -001 087027 028 024 000 00
173630 2313N 09533W 5992 04451 0129 +014 +006 086026 028 023 000 00
173700 2311N 09535W 6147 04250 0127 +030 +011 085022 023 023 001 00
173730 2310N 09536W 6309 04037 0132 +041 +017 092019 021 024 001 00
173800 2308N 09537W 6472 03829 0145 +045 +031 086017 018 026 000 00
173830 2307N 09539W 6648 03610 0150 +054 +042 084019 020 026 002 00
173900 2306N 09540W 6825 03393 0150 +069 +049 081016 018 027 000 00
173930 2304N 09542W 7008 03173 0143 +087 +053 079014 015 027 000 00
174000 2303N 09543W 7181 02969 0140 +100 +062 073015 017 026 000 00
174030 2301N 09544W 7361 02763 0149 +105 +078 077015 018 025 000 00
174100 2301N 09544W 7361 02763 0152 +112 +090 081014 016 025 000 00
174130 2259N 09547W 7718 02365 0151 +127 +101 089018 018 022 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:43 pm

80%-80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located over
the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico has
become a little better defined today. The associated showers and
thunderstorms are currently not well organized. However, an
increase in the organization of this activity could lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone at any time before the low moves
inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
low pressure area. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, areas of heavy rain are expected over portions of eastern
Mexico tonight through Tuesday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
high terrain. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#86 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:52 pm

URNT15 KNHC 191751
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 16 20160619
174200 2257N 09548W 7909 02159 0152 +137 +113 091019 020 024 001 00
174230 2256N 09549W 8109 01949 0154 +149 +123 089020 020 024 001 03
174300 2254N 09551W 8312 01737 0154 +158 +138 094020 020 023 001 00
174330 2253N 09552W 8417 01620 0146 +162 +150 095019 020 020 001 00
174400 2252N 09553W 8430 01608 0143 +165 +150 094019 020 020 001 00
174430 2250N 09554W 8428 01608 0142 +164 +152 087020 020 021 001 00
174500 2249N 09555W 8429 01607 0142 +165 +146 086019 020 022 001 00
174530 2248N 09557W 8430 01604 0142 +164 +151 086020 021 024 000 00
174600 2246N 09558W 8428 01607 0141 +163 +155 087020 021 022 001 00
174630 2245N 09559W 8428 01608 0141 +165 +156 083023 024 023 000 00
174700 2244N 09600W 8429 01607 0143 +164 +156 081021 023 024 000 00
174730 2242N 09602W 8430 01607 0142 +168 +140 078019 020 024 000 00
174800 2241N 09603W 8430 01607 0139 +170 +146 078019 019 023 001 03
174830 2240N 09604W 8428 01609 0141 +170 +144 082019 020 023 001 00
174900 2238N 09605W 8546 01495 0147 +174 +151 079019 020 024 002 00
174930 2237N 09607W 8773 01270 0151 +183 +160 083019 020 025 004 00
175000 2236N 09608W 9019 01038 0159 +191 +182 075022 023 024 005 00
175030 2234N 09609W 9261 00808 0158 +203 +201 072028 029 024 005 00
175100 2233N 09611W 9488 00596 0156 +216 +212 071029 030 026 004 00
175130 2232N 09612W 9615 00473 0149 +225 +216 069026 027 025 005 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#87 Postby Alyono » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:00 pm

we still have the evening recon. That was never cancelled. It isn't depicted in the latest TCPOD as that is for flights after 12Z tomorrow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#88 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:03 pm

URNT15 KNHC 191801
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 17 20160619
175200 2230N 09613W 9630 00456 0144 +228 +217 071025 026 024 005 00
175230 2229N 09614W 9627 00461 0145 +230 +216 069025 026 023 004 00
175300 2228N 09615W 9648 00442 0146 +233 +215 068024 025 023 001 00
175330 2226N 09617W 9750 00347 0145 +240 +212 067020 023 022 001 00
175400 2225N 09618W 9772 00329 0144 +239 +202 066019 021 020 002 00
175430 2224N 09619W 9769 00330 0143 +239 +198 069019 019 022 002 00
175500 2222N 09620W 9769 00330 0144 +233 +210 067018 019 021 002 00
175530 2221N 09621W 9773 00328 0145 +228 +223 054017 018 022 001 01
175600 2220N 09623W 9769 00330 0144 +233 +215 060020 021 022 001 00
175630 2218N 09624W 9771 00329 0144 +234 +212 058019 020 025 000 00
175700 2217N 09625W 9770 00330 0144 +229 +221 058020 020 025 001 00
175730 2216N 09626W 9769 00333 0146 +226 +222 056019 020 024 001 01
175800 2215N 09627W 9772 00329 0147 +230 +220 060018 019 023 001 00
175830 2213N 09629W 9768 00331 0147 +230 +224 061019 020 024 000 00
175900 2212N 09630W 9774 00329 0148 +230 +221 058020 021 022 001 00
175930 2211N 09631W 9770 00333 0148 +230 +226 054019 021 023 001 00
180000 2209N 09632W 9777 00325 0147 +231 +224 059018 019 021 001 03
180030 2208N 09631W 9774 00329 0147 +230 +223 062016 017 020 001 00
180100 2207N 09630W 9769 00333 0147 +231 +223 064016 016 020 001 00
180130 2206N 09629W 9769 00331 0147 +230 +225 060015 016 017 002 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#89 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#90 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:12 pm

URNT15 KNHC 191811
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 18 20160619
180200 2204N 09628W 9772 00329 0146 +231 +224 061016 017 020 000 00
180230 2203N 09627W 9770 00330 0145 +232 +224 061016 017 020 000 00
180300 2202N 09626W 9772 00328 0144 +232 +224 059016 016 020 000 03
180330 2201N 09625W 9770 00330 0144 +230 +225 060015 016 019 000 00
180400 2200N 09624W 9772 00328 0143 +232 +225 061015 015 018 000 00
180430 2159N 09623W 9772 00327 0142 +230 +228 057016 016 018 000 00
180500 2157N 09622W 9770 00328 0142 +231 +228 052016 017 018 000 01
180530 2156N 09621W 9769 00329 //// +231 //// 054017 017 020 000 01
180600 2155N 09620W 9769 00327 0140 +234 +224 055017 018 020 000 00
180630 2154N 09619W 9768 00325 0138 +235 +224 051017 018 018 000 03
180700 2153N 09617W 9773 00322 0137 +234 +226 046015 016 018 000 00
180730 2151N 09616W 9769 00325 0139 +233 +228 054015 016 018 000 00
180800 2150N 09615W 9768 00325 0138 +235 +231 055015 015 018 000 00
180830 2149N 09614W 9770 00324 0138 +236 +228 062014 015 018 000 00
180900 2148N 09613W 9768 00327 0137 +235 +232 062013 014 017 000 00
180930 2147N 09612W 9771 00323 0137 +236 +229 054011 013 016 000 00
181000 2145N 09611W 9772 00323 0137 +236 +224 061008 009 015 000 00
181030 2144N 09610W 9770 00324 0137 +238 +219 068006 007 014 000 00
181100 2143N 09609W 9772 00323 0137 +240 +217 058007 009 013 000 00
181130 2142N 09608W 9775 00322 0137 +240 +223 046009 010 014 000 03
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#91 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:22 pm

URNT15 KNHC 191821
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 19 20160619
181200 2140N 09608W 9768 00327 0137 +239 +222 038009 010 013 000 00
181230 2139N 09607W 9770 00323 0136 +236 +228 030010 011 013 000 00
181300 2137N 09607W 9773 00320 0135 +239 +225 022010 010 011 000 00
181330 2135N 09606W 9772 00322 0135 +235 +229 015011 011 013 000 00
181400 2134N 09606W 9770 00323 0135 +237 +229 018011 011 012 000 00
181430 2132N 09606W 9772 00322 0135 +237 +230 019011 011 011 000 00
181500 2131N 09605W 9770 00322 0135 +239 +227 024011 011 012 000 00
181530 2129N 09605W 9772 00320 0134 +238 +227 021010 011 011 000 00
181600 2127N 09605W 9769 00323 0135 +235 +228 015011 011 011 000 00
181630 2126N 09604W 9771 00322 0135 +235 +229 009010 011 011 000 00
181700 2124N 09604W 9769 00323 0135 +235 +230 012011 011 009 000 03
181730 2123N 09603W 9768 00323 0134 +235 +228 008011 011 010 000 00
181800 2122N 09602W 9772 00320 0134 +235 +228 008011 011 012 000 00
181830 2121N 09601W 9770 00322 0134 +235 +228 006010 011 011 000 03
181900 2120N 09559W 9769 00322 0133 +235 +230 006009 010 009 000 00
181930 2120N 09557W 9768 00322 0132 +235 +229 009009 009 011 000 00
182000 2119N 09556W 9768 00320 0132 +235 +228 017008 009 011 000 00
182030 2119N 09554W 9770 00318 0130 +235 +231 019007 008 012 000 00
182100 2118N 09553W 9770 00318 0131 +235 +232 020007 008 011 000 01
182130 2118N 09551W 9772 00317 0130 +239 +227 038006 007 010 000 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#92 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:24 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#93 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:28 pm

High towers about to pop on the center it looks like.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#94 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:29 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#95 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:33 pm

URNT15 KNHC 191831
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 20 20160619
182200 2118N 09549W 9772 00316 0129 +239 +233 036004 006 013 000 00
182230 2117N 09548W 9768 00319 0128 +238 +233 007006 008 015 000 01
182300 2117N 09546W 9772 00314 0129 +243 +232 065008 010 013 000 00
182330 2117N 09545W 9772 00317 0128 +245 +231 086009 010 012 000 00
182400 2116N 09543W 9768 00318 0127 +245 +231 092013 014 019 000 03
182430 2116N 09542W 9772 00313 0126 +245 +229 087014 014 017 000 03
182500 2114N 09541W 9766 00318 0126 +245 +225 075014 015 013 000 00
182530 2113N 09541W 9770 00317 0128 +245 +231 076013 015 014 000 00
182600 2111N 09541W 9772 00317 0129 +245 +231 072012 012 011 000 00
182630 2110N 09541W 9774 00314 0130 +241 +234 049009 012 009 000 00
182700 2108N 09541W 9772 00316 0128 +240 +234 041010 010 011 000 00
182730 2106N 09540W 9769 00314 0125 +240 +233 028009 011 010 000 00
182800 2105N 09540W 9769 00313 0124 +240 +234 023006 009 008 000 00
182830 2104N 09539W 9769 00313 0124 +241 +234 020006 007 014 001 00
182900 2103N 09538W 9769 00316 0125 +240 +237 013004 005 013 004 03
182930 2102N 09536W 9771 00313 0125 +236 +236 017006 007 016 007 01
183000 2101N 09535W 9769 00314 0124 +242 +235 007007 008 011 000 00
183030 2100N 09534W 9765 00318 0123 +244 +234 050005 008 009 001 00
183100 2059N 09532W 9756 00325 0122 +243 +233 086009 010 013 000 00
183130 2059N 09531W 9761 00319 0121 +245 +229 085008 009 009 001 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#96 Postby Hammy » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:35 pm

Based on satellite as well as recon winds it looks like the circulation is still south of the flight path, possibly around 19.5N and may be small.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#97 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:42 pm

AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 21 20160619
183200 2059N 09529W 9758 00322 0121 +245 +227 084008 009 008 000 03
183230 2058N 09528W 9762 00318 0121 +245 +230 067009 009 007 000 00
183300 2056N 09528W 9756 00323 0120 +245 +229 053008 009 007 000 03
183330 2055N 09527W 9762 00317 0119 +245 +229 035007 008 007 000 00
183400 2053N 09527W 9763 00314 0118 +242 +233 021007 007 007 000 00
183430 2051N 09527W 9760 00319 0119 +240 +234 031007 007 007 000 03
183500 2050N 09526W 9761 00318 0120 +244 +231 046005 007 007 000 00
183530 2049N 09525W 9760 00319 0120 +245 +231 059007 008 008 000 00
183600 2048N 09523W 9759 00319 0119 +245 +236 063009 009 008 000 03
183630 2047N 09522W 9761 00317 0118 +243 +237 066009 009 008 001 03
183700 2046N 09521W 9761 00314 0117 +243 +236 069009 010 009 001 00
183730 2045N 09521W 9762 00314 0117 +245 +234 065009 010 009 000 00
183800 2043N 09520W 9754 00323 0117 +242 +237 063009 010 011 002 01
183830 2042N 09519W 9764 00312 0116 +240 +234 044009 011 012 007 03
183900 2040N 09518W 9753 00322 0116 +237 +235 053010 013 017 002 00
183930 2039N 09518W 9763 00312 0114 +244 +234 063005 008 015 001 03
184000 2038N 09517W 9759 00313 0114 +241 +236 060009 011 024 011 03
184030 2036N 09516W 9753 00322 0116 +239 +236 078010 011 022 011 03
184100 2035N 09515W 9767 00307 0113 +241 +234 087012 013 015 001 00
184130 2034N 09515W 9768 00305 0113 +245 +230 082011 013 011 000 00
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Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#98 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#99 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:52 pm

19/1745 UTC 19.7N 94.4W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Recon

#100 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:53 pm

URNT15 KNHC 191851
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 22 20160619
184200 2032N 09515W 9779 00297 0114 +245 +230 076011 012 011 000 00
184230 2030N 09514W 9764 00308 0113 +240 +236 070013 013 013 000 00
184300 2029N 09514W 9772 00302 0112 +242 +234 067013 014 012 000 00
184330 2027N 09514W 9769 00303 0111 +245 +230 061012 012 010 000 00
184400 2026N 09514W 9770 00302 0111 +245 +233 062012 013 011 000 03
184430 2024N 09514W 9766 00305 0110 +243 +233 064012 013 012 000 03
184500 2023N 09513W 9769 00301 0109 +241 +233 063012 012 012 000 00
184530 2021N 09512W 9769 00301 0109 +241 +231 065013 013 012 000 00
184600 2020N 09511W 9769 00301 0109 +243 +230 058013 013 011 001 00
184630 2018N 09511W 9769 00300 0108 +245 +228 053012 013 012 000 00
184700 2017N 09510W 9768 00302 0108 +245 +225 052012 012 012 000 00
184730 2016N 09509W 9768 00302 0109 +242 +228 058011 012 012 000 00
184800 2015N 09508W 9769 00301 0109 +240 +232 069012 013 010 000 03
184830 2013N 09507W 9768 00301 0108 +240 +230 070012 013 010 000 03
184900 2012N 09507W 9769 00301 0110 +240 +229 069011 012 012 000 00
184930 2010N 09506W 9768 00302 0110 +240 +230 059009 011 012 000 00
185000 2009N 09505W 9770 00302 0111 +240 +228 055010 011 010 001 00
185030 2007N 09504W 9768 00303 0110 +240 +223 051008 010 010 001 03
185100 2006N 09504W 9771 00300 0110 +243 +223 037008 009 009 001 03
185130 2005N 09503W 9770 00300 0109 +240 +226 049009 010 009 000 00
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Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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