EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#201 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 3:13 pm

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   193000 UTC
      Lat :   14:16:15 N     Lon :  120:29:16 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 956.6mb/109.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.8     6.0     6.5

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp :  -2.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

 Scene Type : EYE 
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#202 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2016 3:55 pm

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016

Blas has the classic appearance of a powerful hurricane in satellite
imagery this afternoon, with a 20 n mi wide eye embedded in a
symmetric central dense overcast which in turn is almost surrounded
by outer convective bands. Satellite intensity estimates are 115
kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and a recent CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique estimate is 110 kt. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is increased to 110 kt, making Blas the first
major hurricane of the eastern Pacific season.

Blas continues its westward movement with an initial motion of
275/14. For the next 72 hours or so, the hurricane should be
steered generally westward to west-northwestward by a deep-layer
ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. This portion of the
new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72
hours, the forecast confidence decreases as the track guidance
diverges. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, and Canadian models turn Blas
northwestward between the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low
centered to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands. In contrast
to the other models, the ECMWF forecasts the low to move westward
with mid-level ridging developing between it and Blas. Thus, it
forecasts Blas to turn westward by 120 hours. The new forecast
track is similar to the old track in showing a west-northwestward
motion at 96 and 120 hours, with the track lying between the ECMWF
and the other models.

Blas should remain in a light-shear environment over warm water for
the next 12-24 hours or so, and some additional strengthening is
possible during this time. While the shear is expected to be
light to moderate during the forecast period, the cyclone should
move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 24 hours which
should cause a steady weakening. The new forecast intensity is
similar to that of the previous advisory and calls for Blas to decay
to a remnant low over cold water by 120 hours. However, if the ECMWF
track verifies, the system would stay over warmer water and likely
remain a tropical cyclone at 120 hours and beyond.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.3N 120.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 3:57 pm

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   200000 UTC
      Lat :   14:19:01 N     Lon :  120:38:47 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.9 / 954.4mb/112.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.9     6.2     6.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

 Center Temp : -17.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C

 Scene Type : EYE 
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#204 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:13 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#205 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:14 pm

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   213000 UTC
      Lat :   14:09:58 N     Lon :  120:50:47 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.1 / 950.2mb/117.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.1     6.4     6.4

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

 Center Temp :  -2.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

 Scene Type : EYE 
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#206 Postby alan1961 » Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:43 pm

Image

Image

ISS captures Hurricane Blas
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#207 Postby stormwise » Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:33 pm

Image
Outflow tucked in annular at some point this should look a classic with a pinwheel eye.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#208 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:02 pm

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             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 JUL 2016    Time :   230000 UTC
      Lat :   14:12:53 N     Lon :  121:02:53 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.3 / 945.9mb/122.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.3     6.3     6.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

 Center Temp :  -0.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

 Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#209 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:10 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#210 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:27 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Image


Looking good. If I'm correct on the readings you posted, Blas's winds are now at Cat 4 strength and the pressure has gone down by 11 mbs. If a recon plane was in there, it would be an interesting ride for sure.
Last edited by JaxGator on Tue Jul 05, 2016 8:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#211 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:39 pm

115kts.

EP, 03, 2016070600, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1212W, 115, 952, HU
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#212 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:44 pm

JaxGator wrote:Looking good. If I'm correct on the readings you posted, Blas's winds are now at Cat 4 strength and the pressure has gone down by 11 mbs.


Only according to CMISS automated intensity estimates, not the NHC itself.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#213 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:47 pm

Code: Select all

TXPZ21 KNES 060014
TCSENP

A.  03E (BLAS)

B.  06/0000Z

C.  14.3N

D.  121.2W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T5.5/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE ITH OW EYE
EMBEDDED BY BL. PT=5.5.  MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#214 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jul 05, 2016 7:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:115kts.

EP, 03, 2016070600, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1212W, 115, 952, HU


CAt 4...rightfully so
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#215 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 05, 2016 8:05 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
JaxGator wrote:Looking good. If I'm correct on the readings you posted, Blas's winds are now at Cat 4 strength and the pressure has gone down by 11 mbs.


Only according to CMISS automated intensity estimates, not the NHC itself.


Thanks. I do think though the NHC will make the call at the next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#216 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 05, 2016 8:22 pm

So impressive

Image
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#217 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 05, 2016 8:50 pm

gatorcane wrote:So impressive

Image


Indeed. Looks like the eye has finally cleared/opened.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#218 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:11 pm

Picturesque

Image
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#219 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:34 pm

120kts.

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016

Blas continues to intensify. Satellite images indicate that Blas
has a typical appearance of a major hurricane with a distinct eye
surrounded by a fairly symmetric ring of deep convection. The
Dvorak CI-numbers at 0000 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
recent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a
little higher. Based on these estimates and the continued
improvement in organization since the time of the classifications,
the initial wind speed is set at 120 kt. This makes Blas a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The hurricane has slowed a little in forward speed, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. The models are in
very good agreement for the next 3 days or so in showing Blas
continuing westward to west-northwestward on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
After that time, however, the model solutions diverge with the bulk
of the guidance showing a northwestward motion due to the cyclone
interacting with a cut-off low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
The ECMWF model has a notably different solution showing little
involvement with the cut-off low, which results in Blas continuing
westward. No significant changes were made to the previous
prediction and this track forecast lies close to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that there is low
confidence at the latter forecast points.

Blas still has another 12-18 hours of favorable conditions for
strengthening. Beyond that time, the cyclone is expected to move
over cool water and into a progressively drier air mass. These
conditions should end the strengthening phase and cause a steady
weakening trend. The official NHC intensity forecast lies at the
upper end the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line
with the intensity model consensus from 36-120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 121.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 18.2N 132.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 20.2N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 21.6N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#220 Postby stormwise » Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:42 pm

(The ECMWF model has a notably different solution showing little involvement with the cut-off low, which results in Blas continuing westward).

With big calls EC is usually the go to model no model does it better.
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