EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#241 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 06, 2016 5:25 pm

Blas is a real sharp-looking tropical cyclone, that's for sure.

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#242 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 06, 2016 5:36 pm

Absolutely stunning stadium effect going on. :uarrow:

Clearly looks stronger than 125mph.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#243 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:17 pm

Maybe I have a weak spot for hurricanes with large eyes... but this is ridiculous..

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#244 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:26 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#245 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:38 pm

Pretty sure they're going to bump this to 130kts in off season analysis:

3 hours ago:

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latest (eyewall open to the W):

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#246 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:13 pm

Code: Select all

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  06 JUL 2016    Time :   233000 UTC
      Lat :   15:28:31 N     Lon :  124:58:08 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.3 / 945.7mb/122.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.3     6.4     6.4

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

 Center Temp : +17.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.6C

 Scene Type : EYE 
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#247 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:25 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Maybe I have a weak spot for hurricanes with large eyes... but this is ridiculous..

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I'm a fan of big eyes too, especially with some banding. Atsani '15, Nabi '05, and Chaba '04 are some of my personal favorites.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#248 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 06, 2016 7:37 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 070016
TCSENP

A. 03E (BLAS)

B. 07/0000Z

C. 15.5N

D. 125.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B FOR DT=6.0.
MET=5.5 WITH PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

They gave the correct DT, but typoed with off-white instead of warm medium grey, and what a typo it is! ADT is spitting out eye temps >18*C now.

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#249 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:16 pm

Still 110 in the ATCF. Blame TAFB.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#250 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:31 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Still 110 in the ATCF. Blame TAFB.


That's ridiculous. I'm pretty sure the NHC will factor in the impressive presentation on MW imagery.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#251 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:39 pm

I actually think it is weaker. Went with an even lower number than 110 kts
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#252 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:47 pm

Alyono wrote:I actually think it is weaker. Went with an even lower number than 110 kts


Only real reason why I could see it being weaker is the dry air aloft limiting surface mixing.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#253 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:38 pm

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
800 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016

The satellite presentation of Blas remains quite impressive. The eye
of the hurricane is about 20-25 n mi wide with evidence of
mesovorticies within it. The convective structure has changed
little throughout the day and remains fairly symmetric around the
center. A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB,
SAB, and the automated technique from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin suggest that the intensity of Blas is holding steady at
around 110 kt.

The major hurricane is not far away from cool water, and it
will likely be crossing the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours.
These anticipated unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a
progressively more stable air mass should promote a steady
weakening trend during the next several days. The NHC intensity
forecast is an update of the previous one and is fairly close to the
intensity model consensus. The system is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days when sea surface temperatures
beneath the cyclone will likely be around 24 C.

Blas is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt on the
southwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level ridge. This general
motion should continue for the next couple of days as the ridge
remains the primary steering influence. Beyond that time, the
forecast track is less certain as the model spread remains quite
large with the GFS-based guidance showing a northwestward motion
around the east side of a mid- to upper-level low northeast of
the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show
less interaction with the upper low, resulting in a more westward
track. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope and is in best agreement with the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 125.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.1N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 16.7N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 17.5N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 18.7N 131.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 20.8N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 22.1N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0000Z 22.2N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#254 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:40 pm

The NHC track is the least likely solution. It is in the middle of a bifurcated ensemble envelope
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#255 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:49 pm

:uarrow:

So far the track has been on point. We'll see tomorrow when the spread kicks in.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#256 Postby stormwise » Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:52 pm

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just saying and its likely i'm wrong, but the sat presentation from about 45 mins ago not looking any weaker to me it looks stable.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#257 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

So far the track has been on point. We'll see tomorrow when the spread kicks in.


the track is fine through 48 hours. Thereafter, they split the bifurcation, which is the solution with the least chance of occurring
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#258 Postby stormwise » Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:22 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#259 Postby stormwise » Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:33 am

Hurricane 03E BLAS
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2016 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 15:40:47 N Lon : 125:43:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 945.4mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +15.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON


Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


2016JUL07 053000 6.3 945.4 122.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.94 -65.70 EYE 29 IR 60.3 15.68 125.72 COMBO GOES15 21.3
Utilizing history file /data2/misc/adt/scripts/history/03E.ODT
Successfully completed listing
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#260 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:02 am

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 070844
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016

Blas continues to maintain an impressive satellite presentation,
with a distinct 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of cold
convective tops. Overall, the cyclone has been steady-state for
the last 24 hours or so, consistent with some annular hurricane
characteristics such as minimal convective banding and a large eye.
The initial intensity remains 110 kt based on the latest Dvorak
classifications of T5.5/6.0 from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane will be moving over cooler waters and into a more
stable atmospheric environment during the next 12 to 24 hours, which
should result in the onset of weakening. Weakening should continue
after that time, with Blas expected to move over SSTs of about 24C
in 48 hours. Deep convection is expected to dissipate late in the
period, and Blas should become post-tropical in 4 days, or perhaps a
bit sooner. The official forecast is close to the latest IVCN
intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09, as Blas continues to be
steered around the southwestern periphery of a distant mid-level
ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is forecast to
turn northwestward in 24-36 hours as it reaches the western edge of
the ridge, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario. Through 48 hours the NHC track has been shifted a bit
north of the previous one following the latest trend in the
guidance. Afterward, most of the guidance shows a continued
west-northwestward or northwestward motion through 72 hours as Blas
interacts with an upper-level closed low northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands, followed by the shallow post-tropical Blas turning
westward. The ECMWF continues to show less interaction with the
upper-level low, and turns Blas westward and west-southwestward at
days 4 and 5. Compared to 24 hours ago, the GFS-based guidance has
shifted southward and the ECMWF has trended a bit northward,
suggesting that a consensus approach is still the best solution. The
new NHC track at days 3 through 5 is close to the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope. This track is a little
south of the latest multi-model consensus but well north of the
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 15.9N 126.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 16.4N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 17.2N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 19.5N 131.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 21.5N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 22.0N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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