WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[StormChaser75]

Are there any major populated areas on the east/southeast coast of Taiwan?

hope this image helps.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/750883867842588673

[euro6208]

I knew it was a big storm but wow didn't know it was that big!

From southern Japan to almost the equator!

[StormChaser75]

I knew it was a big storm but wow didn't know it was that big!

From southern Japan to almost the equator!

Then to the right you can see a cat 3 125 mph hurricane blas compared to typhoon nepartak.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND CYCLONE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE
FEATURE GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS REFORMED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH
PERIPHERIES AS OBSERVED IN LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY AND A 062234Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 150 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. STY 02W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,
PARTLY DUE TO THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
STY 02W WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, THEN REORGANIZE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AGAIN OVER CHINA SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING OVER
LAND ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS, TURNING NORTH, UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE SPEED
AND TIGHTNESS OF THE POLEWARD TURN ONCE OVERLAND, BUT SHOW TIGHT
GROUPING IN THE TRACK MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AND CHINA LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

given that it just finished an eyewall replacement, I am not sure this will weaken at all prior to landfall

[Harrycane]

https://www.flightradar24.com/HVN341/a41a186

Flights in the area. Some airplanes are pretty close to it...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2016 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 21:24:00 N Lon : 123:33:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 918.3mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +19.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.9 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Both JTWC and SSD back up to 7.0

TPPN10 PGTW 070302

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 21.39N

D. 123.90E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR BY W (+1.0
ADJ FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AGREES WHILE PT YIELDS A
6.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2234Z 21.08N 124.63E SSMS


MARTINEZ

TXPQ28 KNES 070313
TCSWNP

A. 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 21.4N

D. 123.9E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN
W YIELDS A DT OF 7.0 AFTER A PLUS 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE
7.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[Aric Dunn]

[Alyono]

that image takes forever on a hyperfast connection to load, Aric

[Aric Dunn]

works fine for me.. hmm...

[euro6208]

Some of the models taking this more west towards extreme southern Taiwan. If that's the case then likely it will come out of the country fully intact when it reemerges in the Taiwan strait possibly intensifying.

Possibly a big storm for Mainland China.

[Alyono]

image is working now. Maybe have been a server issue or something?

[Alyono]

Some of the models taking this more west towards extreme southern Taiwan. If that's the case then likely it will come out of the country fully intact when it reemerges in the Taiwan strait possibly intensifying.

Possibly a big storm for Mainland China.

it'll probably get tangled in the mountains and not be more than a minimal typhoon once it reaches the Taiwan Strait

[stormwise]

[FireRat]

Damn Dude!
That is one of the most awe inspiring storms I've ever seen on loop, simply wow! Looks like a T 7.5 or more.
I hope that loop could be somehow saved for archives, that eye is donut-like.

[euro6208]

02W NEPARTAK 160707 0600 21.6N 123.4E WPAC 145 914

[StormChaser75]

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/ << shows the first rain band coming through taiwan with the heavy rain still out to sea and light rain just on shore ..






And a ok quality image of both cat 5 super typhoon nepartak on the left and cat 3 hurricane blas on the right Aswell as recently formed tropical depression Four-E

[stormwise]

02W NEPARTAK 160707 0600 21.6N 123.4E WPAC 145 914

Looking at the loop,thinking how could you realistically judge this Typhoon is 5kts weaker unless the core passed directly over a buoy.