WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:14 am

TXPQ28 KNES 030901
TCSWNP

A. 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 03/0830Z

C. 9.6N

D. 144.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS....7 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET OF 2.5 BASED
OFF RAPID DEVELOPMENT. PT IS A 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/0302Z 8.8N 144.9E AMSR2


...MICHAEL
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:29 am

JMA has some slow development as it clips Guam but first time it agrees that Nepartak will become a typhoon east of Okinawa. Barely missing land...

Image

NAVGEM with peak after passing over the Ryukyu Islands.

Image

CMC 964 into Taiwan.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:32 am

EURO stronger...

953mb

Image

944 mb

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:38 am

984 mb GFS

Image

915 mb into the Ryukyu Islands

Image

920 mb

Image

As it recurves
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:40 am

The models are aggressive...takes this anywhere into very extreme southern China, Taiwan, Koreas, or even Japan.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:49 am

Winds gusting to around 30's here...
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby stormwise » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:50 am

Image
Note R Maue did have a question mark on the MU ens.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/links-2/
Free on this link :uarrow: WXBELL ECWMF ENSEMBLE
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:12 am

Ocean heat Potential can support a 175 to 200 knot typhoon over the area...now that's something...
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:34 am

TS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 3 July 2016


<Analysis at 12 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°00' (10.0°)
E144°20' (144.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area S 330 km (180 NM)
N 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55' (13.9°)
E139°30' (139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55' (17.9°)
E133°35' (133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°35' (21.6°)
E127°20' (127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 7 July>
Center position of probability circle N24°50' (24.8°)
E123°10' (123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 July>
Center position of probability circle N28°25' (28.4°)
E122°40' (122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Radius of probability circle 500 km (270 NM


Image
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:54 am

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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:56 am

06Z HWRF at 910MB at its peak: :eek:

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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:26 am

JTWC warning at 15:00 UTC up to 40kts and peak is 110kts.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2016 1:56 pm

JMA 18:45 UTC warning at 40kts.

TS 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 3 July 2016


<Analysis at 18 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°40' (10.7°)
E144°00' (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55' (14.9°)
E138°10' (138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40' (18.7°)
E131°55' (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°20' (22.3°)
E125°40' (125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)


Image
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:05 pm

JTWC warning at 21:00 UTC up to 45kts.

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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#95 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:57 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 4:58 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP,
SUSTAINED BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
A 031605Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT BOTH THE LLCC AND BANDS
OF CONVECTION ARE BECOMING MORE DEFINED GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY BOTH AUTOMATED AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS AS A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH HAS PROPAGATED WESTWARD ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS NEPARTAK HAS BEGUN ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AS A STR TO THE NORTH BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED AND ACTS AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 30 CELSIUS. TS NEPARTAK IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH
BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NEPARTAK IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND CURVE
TO THE NORTH AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION WEAKENING
THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS WILL OCCUR OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WITH
RELATIVELY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RESULTING IN A BRIEF WEAKENING
PERIOD. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE NOW INDICATING THE TROUGH HAVING LESS INFLUENCE
ON THE STEERING RIDGE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, RESULTING IN A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK MAKING LANDFALL OVER CHINA NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HOWEVER, ALONG WITH NAVGEM AND
JGSM SOLUTIONS ARE STILL INDICATING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE RESULTING
IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF MODEL AIDS UP TO TAU 96 THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#97 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 03, 2016 5:11 pm

12Z ECMWF takes Nepartak just north of Taiwan and then takes days for it to climb the eastern Chinese seaboard right I the coast to slightly inland. This is perhaps the most impactful solution yet, and easily within the envelope of possibilities.
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#98 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:26 pm

Loving the weather here at work.

Nepartak isn't the normal type wpac system. It's circulation is so small but it's feathery outflow is huge.

I wouldn't be surprised if winds are somewhat stronger. Dvorak fails in midget storms.
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#99 Postby stormwise » Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:40 pm

Image
Shear from the midoceanic trough (tutt) is impeding this systems development atm.


Image
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Re: WPAC: NEPARTAK - Tropical Storm

#100 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:47 pm

I actually think it might be more of a dry air issue. Outflow boundaries can be seen sliding out from the west side of the circulation, which is a tell-tale sign that the atmosphere ain't saturated through the entire column.

Image

Satellite derived PW values are pretty much all greater than 50 mm/2.0" within several hundred miles of Nepartak, but they don't appear to be much higher than that since there is any hardly any areas analyzed to have 62 mm/2.5" PWs and above. When looking at actual sounding data, the three nearest 00Zs, from PGAC/Guam, PTKK/Truuk, and PTRO/Koror, all show PWs right about at 60 mm. This isn't particularly dry, even for the tropics, but perhaps a little dry for the moisture envelope of a tropical cyclone traversing waters >30*C.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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