EPAC: AGATHA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: AGATHA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:48 pm

EP, 95, 2016070118, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1160W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:05 pm

Not much expected from the models.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:18 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP952016  07/01/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    31    33    36    36    34    28    23    17   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    31    33    36    36    34    28    23    17   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    27    28    29    27    24    20    17   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     6     3     1     2     6    11    11    13    19    23    23    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -6    -5    -2     0    -2     1     0     0    -2    -2    -1     0
SHEAR DIR         10    25    32   341   292   246   267   234   223   209   236   232   254
SST (C)         28.6  28.5  28.1  27.6  26.9  26.3  25.8  25.2  25.1  25.3  25.0  24.5  24.5
POT. INT. (KT)   150   150   146   140   133   126   121   115   113   116   113   107   107
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.1   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     8     8     7     6     4     4     3     4     3     3     3
700-500 MB RH     54    53    52    52    50    49    47    44    40    38    37    34    33
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10    11    11    11    11    10     9     7     6     5     4     4
850 MB ENV VOR    26    36    39    33    26    12     6    15     4     5     0    15    11
200 MB DIV        29    12     5     4    14     3   -16   -24   -12    -2     8   -37   -46
700-850 TADV       0     0    -1    -2    -2    -1     0     0     3     1     4     2     6
LAND (KM)       1164  1173  1208  1251  1266  1351  1485  1600  1726  1863  2016  2169  2069
LAT (DEG N)     14.1  14.6  15.0  15.4  15.9  16.6  17.1  17.4  17.6  17.8  17.9  18.1  18.0
LONG(DEG W)    116.0 116.9 117.9 118.9 119.9 121.9 124.0 125.8 127.7 129.6 131.5 133.4 135.2
STM SPEED (KT)     9    10    10    11    11     9    10     9     9     9    10     9     9
HEAT CONTENT      23    28    40    33    13     3     3     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  520  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  52.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            2.8

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   3.   7.  13.  18.  22.  24.  26.  26.  24.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   7.   5.   3.   0.  -2.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -8.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   6.   8.  11.  11.   9.   3.  -2.  -8. -13. -16.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   14.1   116.0

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST     07/01/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36           2.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   118.8      40.3  to  144.5       0.75           3.8
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    27.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.36           2.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    23.4      38.9  to    2.1       0.42           2.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     4.1      18.9  to    1.4       0.84           4.6
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    12.8     -11.0  to  135.3       0.16           0.5
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   190.4     638.0  to  -68.2       0.63           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     1.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.27          -0.3
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    14.1      81.4  to    0.0       0.83           0.5
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  23% is   1.7 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   22.5%   16.9%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.4%   11.6%    7.7%    2.1%    0.8%    4.0%    1.1%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    2.9%    0.6%    0.1%    0.0%    0.1%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.5%   12.3%    8.4%    0.8%    0.3%    1.4%    0.4%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST     07/01/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Has 36 hours.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#4 Postby kala » Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Image

Image

Looks like a depression to me.
Last edited by kala on Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:29 pm

Image

Looks classifiable but there are no T numbers yet.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:28 pm

NHC released a special TWO:

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#7 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:35 pm

The circulation is very well defined
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#8 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:39 pm

Wow... That's a TC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:50 pm

:uarrow: Definitely a Tropical Cyclone.

Likely to be short-lived though, shear is already attacking it.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#10 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:53 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Definitely a Tropical Cyclone.

Likely to be short-lived though, shear is already attacking it.


They might want until 03z for that reason.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:56 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Definitely a Tropical Cyclone.

Likely to be short-lived though, shear is already attacking it.


SHIPS has shear relaxing even further actually. Seeing mid-level shear on CMISS though.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#12 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:17 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Definitely a Tropical Cyclone.

Likely to be short-lived though, shear is already attacking it.


SHIPS has shear relaxing even further actually. Seeing mid-level shear on CMISS though.


Global models don't make much out of it.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#13 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:20 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Looks classifiable but there are no T numbers yet.


They could just ask TAFB to do a special T Number analysis. Happened before.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:34 pm

TCFA issued.


WTPN21 PHNC 012130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 115.6W TO 16.9N 120.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011702Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 116.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N 116.0W
APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION UNDERGOING RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A
011702Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A VERY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE APPROXIMATELY AT 28 CELSIUS, ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWEST AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK INTO COOLER WATERS AND DEGRADED
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. DUE TO THE
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: TCFA issued

#15 Postby JaxGator » Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:44 pm

That escalated quickly :eek:. Circulation is well defined, has a good spin, good outflow and winds worthy of an upgrade (as seen on past posts). Convection is also trying to form over the center. Would its outflow and proximity to 94E hamper that system's development?
Last edited by JaxGator on Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E: TCFA issued

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:53 pm

01/1800 UTC 14.0N 115.9W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:36 pm

Satellite wind data from this afternoon indicated that the low
pressure system located about 700 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula had developed a well-defined
circulation. The associated showers and thunderstorms have also
become more organized and concentrated near the center of
circulation throughout the day. Additional development of this
system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
tonight or on Saturday while the low moves generally west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for development by early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:46 pm

02/0000 UTC 14.5N 116.6W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:48 pm

Code: Select all

DT
EP, 95, 201607020000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1420N, 11700W,      , 3,  25, 2,     , 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  MN,   VI, 5, 1515 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:48 pm

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EP, 95, 2016070200,   , BEST,   0, 145N, 1166W,  25, 1007, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  220,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 008,
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