EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Here comes another one.

EP, 96, 2016070418, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1033W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070500, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1040W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070506, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1047W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070512, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1053W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 96, 2016070518, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1060W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[cycloneye]

12z GFS once again has a Hawaii threat on long range. There are problems on the Tropical Tidbits site so I can't post it.

[Alyono]

BS flag raised on the MU track

It is not handling Blas properly, so the flow may be totally different for this one

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS near Hawaii

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for continued gradual development, and this system is
likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week
while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://i.imgur.com/QhxzxHw.png[/ig]

12z GFS near Hawaii

That's the strongest it's ever been.

[Alyono]

furthermore, this is going to track over the cold wake of Blas

The MU is nuts

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962016 07/05/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 59 67 73 77 82
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 59 67 73 77 82
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 31 35 43 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 4 5 5 4 2 3 4 9 15 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 0 -6 -4 -3
SHEAR DIR 350 340 350 3 355 340 332 294 257 60 52 31 34
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 160 156 151 154 152 151 151 147 151
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 71 70 72 74 74 75 74 77 80 80 84 87 85
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 20
850 MB ENV VOR -43 -42 -39 -45 -35 -38 -38 -26 -16 -8 11 35 35
200 MB DIV 45 53 60 29 20 7 4 27 59 94 83 118 95
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 799 820 841 870 886 1009 1176 1304 1460 1626 1782 1860 1773
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.4 11.7 10.8 9.7 9.0 9.8
LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 107.7 108.6 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.5 117.2 118.6 119.5 119.7 119.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 11 9 10 9 8 5 1 7
HEAT CONTENT 39 36 30 26 25 25 23 26 37 43 45 44 44

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 39. 47. 53. 57. 62.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 106.0

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST 07/05/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.96 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.8% 54.7% 50.6% 23.7% 14.5% 53.9% 57.9%
Bayesian: 0.8% 6.6% 4.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 7.3%
Consensus: 3.5% 20.5% 18.5% 8.1% 4.9% 18.6% 21.7%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST 07/05/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF brings this to 937mbar.

[cycloneye]

Here is EC at 240 hours.Blas to the south of Hawaii,future Celia to the NE and then is another behind.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

  05/1745 UTC   12.3N    106.6W       T1.0/1.0         96E -- East Pacific 

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-90%.

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. The circulation of the low has become
better defined today, and continued development is expected. This
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few
days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[gatorcane]

GFS still showing this invest near Hawaii in long-range

[/quote]

[dexterlabio]

It's amazing that since 2014, the models have been showing Hawaii threat.. and to think that there is a budding La Nina this year.

[Yellow Evan]

It's amazing that since 2014, the models have been showing Hawaii threat.. and to think that there is a budding La Nina this year.

During +PDO years even in La Nina, you can see long tracking storm that near Hawaii over the Pacific. Happened in 1984, 1985, and 1989 too.

[Alyono]

I need to remind you this is tracking over the cold wake of a cat 4/5 hurricane when the models are bombing this out

The models are UNCOUPLED. They do not see the cold wake. Thus, the solutions of this one being as strong as Blas are unrealistic

[Kingarabian]

I need to remind you this is tracking over the cold wake of a cat 4/5 hurricane when the models are bombing this out

The models are UNCOUPLED. They do not see the cold wake. Thus, the solutions of this one being as strong as Blas are unrealistic

It's just a wait and see at this time. Maybe they'll notice this as the timeframe creeps into the medium range.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, are showing some signs of organization. Continued
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962016  07/06/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    36    42    52    63    72    81    87    94    99   100
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    36    42    52    63    72    81    87    94    99   100
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    28    30    32    38    43    50    58    70    83    99   109
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     4     4     2     0     1     1     3     3     6    10    10     4
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     0     1     1     0     0     0    -2     0    -3    -2    -4    -2
SHEAR DIR         32    62    76   115   101   351    76   120    81    94    69    66    26
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.4  29.3  29.2  28.9  28.8  28.9  28.7  28.6  28.9  29.1  29.1
POT. INT. (KT)   159   159   158   157   156   152   151   152   151   149   151   154   154
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.8 -52.6 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     6     7     7     7     7     6     6
700-500 MB RH     73    74    75    76    77    77    80    79    82    83    82    78    74
MODEL VTX (KT)     9     9    10    10    10    12    12    13    14    16    20    24    27
850 MB ENV VOR   -33   -27   -33   -35   -38   -25   -13    -4     4    29    45    52    55
200 MB DIV        27    41    36    29    17    29    30    71    83   107   120   119   130
700-850 TADV       0     0    -1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0    -1    -3
LAND (KM)        896   932   959  1016  1064  1172  1274  1343  1464  1602  1701  1737  1752
LAT (DEG N)     11.8  12.0  12.2  12.2  12.3  12.4  12.3  12.3  11.9  11.4  11.1  11.5  12.2
LONG(DEG W)    108.3 109.2 110.0 110.9 111.7 113.2 114.6 116.1 117.6 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.3
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9     8     8     8     7     7     7     8     6     5     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      25    27    28    28    26    24    22    26    38    39    36    35    33

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  585  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           16.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   6.  14.  21.  26.  29.  31.  32.  32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   9.  11.  12.  12.  12.  11.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   6.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   4.   5.   7.  10.  14.  18.  19.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  11.  17.  27.  38.  47.  56.  62.  69.  74.  75.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   11.8   108.3

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962016 INVEST     07/06/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36           3.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   133.0      40.3  to  144.5       0.89           5.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    26.8       0.0  to   75.9       0.35           2.7
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     8.3      38.9  to    2.1       0.83           5.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     2.9      18.9  to    1.4       0.91           5.9
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    30.0     -11.0  to  135.3       0.28           0.9
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    33.8     638.0  to  -68.2       0.86           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.4       2.1  to   -1.7       0.46          -0.6
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.8
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  40% is   3.1 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  25% is   2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   40.1%   24.7%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    11.4%   73.9%   53.6%   42.9%   30.4%   56.1%   64.3%
    Bayesian:     0.6%   13.7%    4.8%    1.2%    0.3%    2.6%    3.7%
   Consensus:     4.0%   42.5%   27.7%   14.7%   10.2%   19.6%   22.7%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962016 INVEST     07/06/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##