EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

As it slowly gains more latitude the less chance Celia will be as strong Blas was.If it had been around 9N-10N right now,it would be a different story.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016

Visible satellite imagery shows that Celia has an expansive cloud
shield, with a compact CDO feature and multiple elongated cloud
bands. However, deep convection is disjointed and fairly limited
near the low-level center. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are unchanged from six hours ago, and the CIMSS ADT
estimate has actually decreased during that time. Therefore, the
initial intensity is left at 40 kt.

Celia's center temporarily moved northward earlier today, but the
average motion over the past 12 hours is estimated to be
northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A subtropical ridge extending westward
from northern Mexico should cause Celia to resume a west-
northwestward to westward motion but at a faster forward speed
through day 3. The cyclone is expected to reach the southwestern
periphery of the ridge by day 4, which should cause Celia to turn
northwestward by the end of the forecast period. The track model
spread is low, especially through day 3, and the NHC track forecast
is very close to the various consensus models. This updated
forecast is a little north of the previous one during the first 24
hours to account for Celia's recent northward jog.

High-resolution microwave SST data indicate that Celia's center is
now moving over the coldest portion of Blas's cold wake, which could
be contributing to the relative lack of central deep convection.
Celia will continue moving over the cold wake for another day or
so, and only gradual strengthening is anticipated in the short
term. Warmer waters and low shear should allow faster
intensification to begin in 36-48 hours, with Celia likely
reaching its peak intensity in about 3 days. Cooler waters should
then induce a gradual weakening trend on days 4 and 5. In light of
the latest guidance, no significant changes were made to the
previous NHC intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 13.7N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 14.2N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 14.5N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 14.7N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 17.0N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Alyono]

MU is trending quite far away from Hawaii

[stormwise]

EC still has Hawaii in the cross hairs.

[Kingarabian]

EC still has Hawaii in the cross hairs.

Even the GFS ensembles. Going to be a lot of changes in terms of track with it still being 200 hours out.

[Alyono]

there won't be anything left of Celia on that track. It will be over 23-24C SSTs. Yes, if it were to go annular, it would help its cause. But this is about as far from annular as one can get

Also, that is the 12Z. Waiting to get the 0Z ensemble data. Won't get it all for a few more hours, unfortunately

[Alyono]

and of course, the EC shifts south into Hawaii as a strong hurricane...

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF further south through day 8.

[stormwise]

there won't be anything left of Celia on that track. It will be over 23-24C SSTs. Yes, if it were to go annular, it would help its cause. But this is about as far from annular as one can get

Also, that is the 12Z. Waiting to get the 0Z ensemble data. Won't get it all for a few more hours, unfortunately

12z was just the last ens run i could get my hands on. And yes its a little cool on that track a robust annular as you say may cope well in that environment. Also if the system was to transition to a extra-tropical cyclone and hold that track would likely still bring weather.

[Alyono]

won't go ET. Need trough interaction for that to happen. Not going to be a trough with this one. All ridging.

This track would be far more dangerous if it were to occur a month from now, when the waters have had a bit more time to warm up

[Alyono]

uh... ec...

showing significant intensification just before impact

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF day 9

[Alyono]

MU ensembles indicate most likely path is north. Greatest threat is to Maui, Oahu, and Kauai.

I suspect the EC will have its ensemble envelope south of the MU

[Alyono]

EC has landfall. Looks to be a cat 2. Cannot tell for sure as landfall occurs between the 234 and 240 hour time steps. Pressure was 972mb at 234 hours

[Kingarabian]

It's hard to gauge if this is going to be threat to Hawaii or not.

Do the models have the right SST values?

Will the storm be a hurricane or not?

Will the ridge remain intact or will there be a weakness?

Will there be anything left of Celia to be a threat in the first place?

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/0b5f89832d.png
00Z 240HRS...276 anything could change it veryyyyyyy long range, think myself alot will depend on where the upper-jet is placed.
https://i.imgsafe.org/0b846ed6c8.png

[Alyono]

not understanding why NHC lowered the winds. I also do not follow when they said there is little convective banding. It looks on satellite like there is a very small core with a low of far outer banding

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The cool wake from Hurricane Blas continues to affect Celia. The
convective pattern is quite ragged, with a small CDO feature but
little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity is
set to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates. Celia should begin moving over warmer waters
during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for an increase
in convective organization and some strengthening. Celia is
forecast to peak in about 72 hours and then move over cooler waters
again, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. The
new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS model and is
a bit above the latest intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Celia has accelerated
since the previous advisory. A westward motion to the south of a
building subtropical ridge is expected to begin later today and
continue through 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone should
reach the southwestern edge of the ridge and turn west-northwestward
at a slightly slower speed. The new NHC track forecast is close to
the previous one through 48 hours, but a little faster given the
quicker initial motion. At days 3 through 5 the NHC track has been
shifted a little to the south of the previous one and lies slightly
north of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 14.7N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 15.7N 128.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.1N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kingarabian]

GFS ensembles more south into Hawaii @ 06z.

Operational GFS well north of Hawaii.

[stormwise]

Is some very light mid-level shear on cimss, But basically still looking the same storm as before.