CPAC: DARBY - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN12 KNHC 231951
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP052016
A. 23/19:29:40Z
B. 18 deg 43 min N
154 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. 47 kt
E. 033 deg 28 nm
F. 139 deg 53 kt
G. 038 deg 47 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 19 C / 1519 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0305E DARBY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 53 KT 038 / 47 NM 19:14:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 335 / 7 KT
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 012 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Yellow Evan]

did they even look at the aircraft data? Or did they simply go with the first pass through the center and then went with what the atcf had?

Hopefully the latter since maybe the VDM wasn't in time to prep the advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN15 KNHC 232053
AF301 0305E DARBY HDOB 31 20160723
204430 1837N 15444W 8434 01538 0056 +177 +171 271012 015 015 001 01
204500 1838N 15444W 8433 01535 0057 +175 +170 276010 012 019 000 01
204530 1840N 15444W 8436 01535 //// +179 //// 287007 009 018 000 01
204600 1842N 15444W 8433 01533 //// +177 //// 277005 006 017 001 01
204630 1843N 15444W 8433 01532 0049 +181 +175 278005 006 012 000 00
204700 1845N 15443W 8431 01536 0049 +182 +175 268005 006 008 001 03
204730 1847N 15443W 8436 01528 0047 +183 +173 253004 005 014 000 03
204800 1848N 15443W 8434 01531 0047 +185 +171 213004 004 014 001 03
204830 1850N 15443W 8432 01532 0044 +187 +166 171006 006 /// /// 03
204900 1852N 15443W 8434 01527 0041 +192 +160 141006 006 /// /// 03
204930 1853N 15442W 8433 01528 0039 +195 +163 125005 006 /// /// 03
205000 1855N 15442W 8434 01530 0038 +196 +160 112007 008 /// /// 03
205030 1857N 15442W 8433 01530 0037 +200 +156 103009 010 /// /// 03
205100 1858N 15443W 8433 01528 0036 +200 +155 109010 010 /// /// 03
205130 1900N 15443W 8434 01530 0038 +198 +156 111010 011 /// /// 03
205200 1902N 15443W 8434 01526 0037 +198 +156 108011 012 014 000 03
205230 1903N 15443W 8433 01529 0039 +196 +158 099013 014 014 000 03
205300 1905N 15443W 8431 01530 0038 +198 +155 098016 017 014 000 00
205330 1907N 15443W 8433 01529 0040 +194 +161 098018 019 010 001 00
205400 1908N 15443W 8434 01529 0042 +194 +165 098019 021 011 000 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Code: Select all

URPN12 KNHC 232100
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP052016
A. 23/20:48:20Z
B. 18 deg 49 min N
  154 deg 43 min W
C. 850 mb 1463 m
D. 25 kt
E. 183 deg 56 nm
F. 252 deg 42 kt
G. 184 deg 24 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 14 C / 1520 m
J. 20 C / 1518 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0305E DARBY              OB 11
MAX FL WIND 53 KT 054 / 54 NM 19:14:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 315 / 6 KT
;

[NDG]

Pressure up to 1004mb per latest VDM but recon still finding flight level winds in the low 50s knot range.

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN15 KNHC 232104
AF301 0305E DARBY HDOB 32 20160723
205430 1910N 15443W 8432 01533 0043 +192 +168 097023 024 014 000 00
205500 1912N 15443W 8434 01530 0046 +190 +169 097024 025 015 001 00
205530 1913N 15443W 8436 01532 0047 +190 +171 096026 026 016 000 00
205600 1915N 15443W 8433 01535 0046 +192 +170 096026 026 018 000 00
205630 1917N 15443W 8433 01537 0047 +193 +172 099028 030 020 001 00
205700 1918N 15443W 8433 01536 0049 +191 +168 102033 034 022 001 03
205730 1920N 15443W 8432 01540 0051 +191 +162 105037 039 022 000 00
205800 1922N 15443W 8438 01534 0058 +185 +161 108041 042 024 001 00
205830 1923N 15443W 8434 01546 0059 +186 +157 111043 043 025 001 00
205900 1925N 15443W 8433 01545 0064 +184 +154 112043 044 024 001 00
205930 1927N 15443W 8434 01546 0068 +181 +156 112043 044 022 001 00
210000 1927N 15443W 8434 01546 0074 +177 +158 113043 043 024 000 00
210030 1930N 15442W 8430 01553 0077 +175 +156 114046 048 022 001 00
210100 1932N 15442W 8434 01549 0079 +173 +154 117050 051 022 001 00
210130 1934N 15442W 8436 01552 0084 +169 +154 116050 051 025 000 00
210200 1935N 15442W 8432 01557 0084 +174 +153 117050 051 024 001 00
210230 1937N 15441W 8435 01559 0084 +178 +151 115047 050 026 001 00
210300 1939N 15441W 8432 01561 0086 +178 +152 114046 047 026 001 00
210330 1941N 15441W 8432 01567 0091 +172 +154 117045 045 023 001 00
210400 1942N 15441W 8431 01566 0095 +169 +156 117046 046 023 001 00
$$
;

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA43 PHFO 232107
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
1100 AM HST SAT JUL 23 2016

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been flying through
Darby all morning, providing valuable data as to Darby's strength
and size. Maximum flight level winds near 50 kt indicate that Darby
has weakened slightly since their visit last night, and the initial
intensity for this advisory has been reduced to 40 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be 280/09 kt, with the
poorly-defined center of Darby located on the north side of the deep
convection. Track guidance is fairly well clustered this time
around, and continues to indicate that the center of Darby will move
over the Big Island later today as it moves toward the west.
Darby is expected to move into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to
its north over the next day or so, due to a deep-layer low centered
well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. This will result in a
gradual turn toward the northwest, as well as a gradual increase in
forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous
and a tightly clustered guidance suite, and offers no significant
changes.

As seen in water vapor imagery, Darby is embedded in an environment
characterized by dry mid- and upper-levels, well captured by special
soundings from Lihue and Hilo this morning. Additionally, vertical
wind shear on the order of 10 to 15 kt is taking its toll on the
system, and deep convection has been struggling to organize over
the center. The updated intensity forecast indicates that Darby will
remain a tropical storm through 24 hours, after which time
increasing shear and gradually cooling water temperatures will lead
to a slow but steady weakening, with Darby becoming a remnant low at
the end of the forecast period, close to guidance provided by
SHIPS/LGEM. The intensity forecast assumes that Darby will be able
to maintain some organization as it interacts with the terrain of the
Big Island but no longer considers an alternative track scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 154.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 19.4N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 20.2N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 22.5N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 25.4N 163.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 28.7N 165.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 33.0N 167.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN15 KNHC 232113
AF301 0305E DARBY HDOB 33 20160723
210430 1944N 15441W 8430 01577 0105 +164 +155 117047 048 021 001 03
210500 1945N 15443W 8437 01569 0111 +160 +155 111046 047 /// /// 03
210530 1945N 15444W 8430 01574 0108 +158 +157 108044 045 /// /// 03
210600 1943N 15445W 8438 01561 0100 +164 +156 107040 043 019 001 00
210630 1942N 15445W 8434 01565 0096 +169 +155 111038 039 019 001 00
210700 1940N 15445W 8433 01565 0092 +172 +154 109038 039 021 000 00
210730 1939N 15445W 8435 01560 0087 +177 +151 109040 042 020 000 00
210800 1937N 15445W 8433 01560 0088 +170 +154 108041 043 021 001 00
210830 1936N 15445W 8434 01560 0087 +172 +153 109043 044 022 001 00
210900 1934N 15445W 8433 01558 0084 +173 +153 108042 044 021 000 00
210930 1933N 15445W 8436 01553 0084 +171 +154 107042 043 020 000 00
211000 1931N 15445W 8434 01555 0079 +176 +152 109041 042 019 001 00
211030 1930N 15445W 8436 01547 0075 +180 +151 106041 041 023 000 00
211100 1928N 15445W 8430 01555 0073 +179 +151 102038 040 021 001 00
211130 1926N 15445W 8436 01549 0070 +179 +153 101038 039 020 001 03
211200 1925N 15446W 8434 01544 0067 +180 +153 098038 039 025 001 03
211230 1924N 15448W 8432 01546 0065 +183 +155 096038 039 026 000 03
211300 1922N 15449W 8434 01543 0062 +185 +155 094037 039 025 000 00
211330 1921N 15451W 8433 01543 0059 +185 +163 087033 035 025 001 00
211400 1920N 15452W 8434 01541 0059 +185 +165 081031 033 026 000 00
$$

[Alyono]

did not see the 53 kt flight level or the 47 kt SFMR I take it

[gatorcane]

Saved vis loop as it encroaches on Hawaii, LLC looks exposed:

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN15 KNHC 232133
AF301 0305E DARBY HDOB 35 20160723
212430 1851N 15447W 8434 01535 0054 +180 +166 249014 014 014 000 00
212500 1850N 15446W 8433 01535 0056 +177 +170 246016 016 014 001 00
212530 1849N 15445W 8434 01537 0058 +177 +175 243016 018 014 001 01
212600 1847N 15443W 8434 01538 //// +175 //// 243017 018 010 001 01
212630 1846N 15442W 8436 01536 //// +176 //// 246018 018 007 002 01
212700 1845N 15441W 8440 01533 0062 +177 +174 248016 018 020 001 01
212730 1844N 15440W 8435 01540 //// +174 //// 239016 018 024 001 01
212800 1843N 15438W 8434 01542 //// +170 //// 240020 021 024 001 01
212830 1842N 15437W 8430 01546 //// +168 //// 248024 024 022 003 01
212900 1840N 15436W 8430 01548 //// +160 //// 255027 029 025 004 01
212930 1839N 15435W 8427 01553 //// +155 //// 244029 031 025 004 01
213000 1838N 15433W 8438 01543 0093 +158 //// 229027 029 026 004 01
213030 1837N 15432W 8435 01547 0097 +155 //// 227029 030 025 005 01
213100 1836N 15431W 8438 01545 0103 +156 //// 220028 029 026 006 01
213130 1835N 15430W 8435 01550 0103 +155 +155 225031 033 030 011 00
213200 1833N 15429W 8439 01549 0106 +154 +154 229033 034 032 018 00
213230 1832N 15427W 8433 01555 0114 +150 +150 232040 043 031 019 00
213300 1831N 15426W 8437 01555 0121 +146 +146 233045 046 033 018 00
213330 1830N 15425W 8433 01564 0125 +144 +144 228043 045 034 014 00
213400 1829N 15424W 8440 01554 0125 +145 +145 230043 046 035 022 00
$$

[Yellow Evan]

000
URPN15 KNHC 232143
AF301 0305E DARBY HDOB 36 20160723
213430 1828N 15423W 8431 01567 0125 +149 +149 223041 044 029 015 00
213500 1827N 15421W 8437 01564 0120 +143 //// 215044 045 030 006 01
213530 1826N 15420W 8424 01579 0120 +143 //// 219042 043 032 005 01
213600 1824N 15419W 8437 01567 0125 +140 +140 228041 042 033 009 00
213630 1823N 15418W 8431 01578 0124 +142 +142 230039 040 032 009 00
213700 1822N 15417W 8434 01577 0129 +140 //// 228037 039 028 005 01
213730 1822N 15417W 8434 01577 0131 +137 //// 224036 037 027 005 01
213800 1820N 15414W 8432 01578 0134 +138 //// 221033 036 027 003 01
213830 1819N 15413W 8434 01577 0138 +135 //// 225036 037 023 004 01
213900 1818N 15412W 8431 01583 0141 +142 //// 223033 037 020 007 01
213930 1817N 15411W 8438 01579 0140 +144 //// 220031 032 025 008 01
214000 1815N 15410W 8435 01581 0148 +143 +143 216029 030 026 007 00
214030 1814N 15408W 8424 01599 0152 +149 +149 200026 028 030 035 00
214100 1813N 15407W 8435 01584 0148 +155 +155 193026 028 043 028 00
214130 1812N 15406W 8434 01586 0149 +155 +155 199029 032 044 024 00
214200 1811N 15405W 8431 01588 0147 +154 +154 192031 033 034 023 00
214230 1810N 15404W 8438 01584 0148 +151 +151 194031 032 032 015 00
214300 1809N 15403W 8434 01586 0149 +149 +149 191034 035 027 014 00
214330 1808N 15402W 8431 01594 0145 +150 +150 188032 035 029 025 00
214400 1807N 15401W 8436 01587 0142 +151 +151 185029 032 029 029 00
$$

[Hammy]

Hawaii's gotten brushed/hit with quite a few storms over the last few years, is this a result of El Nino's effects?

[Yellow Evan]

Hawaii's gotten brushed/hit with quite a few storms over the last few years, is this a result of El Nino's effects?

SST's have been gradually over the years gotten warmer around the latitude of Hawaii, making it more likely for a storm to take advantage of times in which the Great Hawaiian Shear has been minimal.

[stormwise]

Media ie Accuweather reports this event is actually a good thing, the island is drought affected and needs the water.

[cycloneye]

From one of our pro mets.

 https://twitter.com/JonathanBelles/status/756993622067863552

[Yellow Evan]

Center appears to be compressing as it interacts with the mountains per radar, like Iselle, rather than be shoved to the N, like Flossie

[Yellow Evan]

Landfall should be within 10 mins or so.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA33 PHFO 232359
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DARBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
200 PM HST SAT JUL 23 2016

[b]...DARBY COMING ASHORE IN THE KAU DISTRICT OF THE BIG ISLAND...[/b]


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 155.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours. In this case,
tropical storm conditions are already occurring, or are imminent,
over the Big Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests in the eastern portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument should monitor the progress of Darby.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located by aircraft near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 155.1 West.
Darby is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Sunday and Monday,
with little change in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
center of Darby is forecast to move ashore in the Kau District in
the next couple of hours. After emerging from the Big Island, the
center of Darby is expected to pass just south of Maui County later
tonight or early Sunday. The center of Darby is expected to pass
close to Oahu and Kauai late Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Sustained winds of 43 mph and wind gusts to 61
mph have been reported in Kohala Ranch on the Big Island in the
last couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected over the Big Island
today, over portions of Maui County tonight and over Oahu Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds are possible over Kauai County Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Darby are expected to impact the
Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

[wxman57]

I can see what may be a mid-level circulation crossing the Big Island. Radar animation indicates a lower-level circulation near the south coast. Peak winds at Hilo 19 kts. Doesn't look like much of an impact there. Rain is heading right for the drought-stricken area on the SW side of the island. Looks like mostly a rain event - for an area affected by drought. Not a bad thing (except for the landslides in the mountains).