EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 17, 2016 1:46 pm

SAB and TAFB now both at T4.0

Code: Select all

 17/1800 UTC   16.5N    112.0W       T4.0/4.0         ESTELLE -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:00 pm

Image

Eye not closed yet.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:14 pm

Code: Select all

EP, 06, 2016071718,   , BEST,   0, 164N, 1121W,  60,  991, TS,  34, NEQ,  120,  100,   80,  100, 1010,  200,  50,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ESTELLE, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 012,
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:17 pm

Supports 60 since highest barb appears to be 55ish and the system isn't compact yet.

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:43 pm

A nascent eye is now showing up on vis.

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:49 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Recent satellite data have given mixed signals on the overall
structure of Estelle. In visible satellite pictures, a band of
convection has wrapped around the center, and what looks like a
ragged eye has appeared. However, recent microwave imagery
suggest that the structure is not as well organized with the
low-level center displaced to west of the mid-level center,
likely the result of continued northwesterly shear. Subjective
T-numbers of 4.0 from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 65 kt,
but, given the lack of inner-core organization, the initial wind
speed is set to 60 kt. Recent ASCAT data revealed a large radius of
maximum winds, and larger area of tropical-storm-force winds, which
required an outward adjustment of the wind radii.

Estelle continues to move westward to west-northwestward at about
7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the
previous advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to move
west-northwestward to the south of a strong subtropical ridge
during the next several days. Estelle will be nearing the western
portion of the ridge by day 5 and a turn toward the northwest is
predicted near the end of the period. Although the guidance is
still in fairly good agreement, most of the models have shifted
northward this cycle. The NHC track has been adjusted accordingly,
but it lies just south of the multi-model consensus and the latest
GFS and ECMWF tracks.

The moderate northwesterly shear over the tropical storm is expected
to weaken during the next 24 hours, which should allow for gradual
intensification. Estelle is predicted to reach peak intensity in
36-48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of
the guidance. After that time, cooler water and a more stable
airmass should induce weakening, and Estelle is predicted to
become a post-tropical cyclone in about 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.0N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.4N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 19.0N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.0N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:50 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Estelle looks a little less organized than this afternoon, since the
eye feature seen on previous microwave imagery has disappeared and
the tropical cyclone is displaying a more asymmetric pattern. The
initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, a blend of
the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB. It seems like some
northwesterly shear is preventing much intensification at
this time. The shear, however, should abate during the next 24
hours, which would allow for gradual strengthening until the storm
reaches cooler water in a couple of days. Thereafter, a more steady
weakening is likely, and Estelle should become post-tropical in
about 5 days while it moves over 23 deg C waters. The models have
backed off somewhat on the peak intensity, and the official forecast
follows suit, although the new prediction is higher than the
consensus for the first few days.

Best estimate of initial motion is to the west-northwest at about 8
kt. Estelle should continue to move on that general course for the
next couple of days, with perhaps a bend toward the west in 3 days
due to the subtropical ridge to the north temporarily strengthening.
Overall, the global models are showing less ridging between 130-140W
at long range, which would cause Estelle to turn west-northwestward
or even northwestward by the end of the forecast period.
Accordingly, most of the models have again shifted northward this
cycle, and the official forecast is moved in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.0N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.4N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.0N 116.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.6N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:16 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

Estelle has changed little overall since the previous advisory due
to the combined effects of moderate northwesterly wind shear and
intrusions of dry mid-level air. The result has been the inability
of the cyclone to develop a persistent eye feature in microwave
satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been maintained at 60
kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB/SAB, which is supported by a 0432Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
that contained a couple of wind speeds of 50-55 kt.

The initial motion estimates remains a steady 290/08kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Estelle is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 72-96
hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5 when the
cyclone moves into a developing break in the subtropical ridge. The
latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this
track scenario. The new forecast track is essentially just an update
of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and then is shifted
slightly northward in line with the trend in the guidance.

Estelle still has about another 36 hours or so to strengthen, during
which time the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and
SSTs remain above 26 deg C. Thereafter, steady weakening is expected
due to SSTs decreasing below 25 deg C around 48 h and to 23 deg C by
96 h. The new intensity forecast to the similar to the previous NHC
intensity forecast, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.2N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.0N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.5N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:50 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

Although the cloud tops are not as cold as they were yesterday, the
area of convection is a little more symmetric around the center
indicating that the northwesterly shear is relaxing. A couple of
recent microwave images also show less tilt between the low- and
mid-level centers, however the inner core is still not well
organized. The initial wind speed is maintained at 60 kt, which is
a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. An automated weather
station on Clarion Island, about 35 n mi north of the center,
recently reported a sustained wind of 51 kt with a gust to 71 kt.

The vertical wind shear over Estelle is forecast to become very
low later today, and remain light during the next few days. Since
the tropical storm is forecast to remain over warm water for
another 36 hours or so, modest strengthening is still anticipated
and the NHC forecast and most of the guidance still calls for
Estelle to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. In
36 to 48 h, the cyclone will be moving over decreasing SSTs
which should commence the weakening process. A faster rate of
weakening should begin by 72 hours, when Estelle moves over SSTs
below 24C and into a more stable airmass.

The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt. Estelle should move
west-northwestward to the south of the subtropical ridge during the
next 3 to 4 days. After that time, a weakness in the ridge caused
by a mid- to upper-low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Island
should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward by day 5. The track
guidance is in good agreement, but most of the typically better
performing models are along the northern side of the guidance
envelope. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a little north of
the multi-model consensus and is near a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and
UKMET models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.7N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.2N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 19.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 20.9N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 27.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016

Banding features associated with Estelle have become a little
better defined this afternoon, but the tropical storm still lacks
an inner core. In fact, this afternoon's ASCAT data continues to
show a large radius of maximum winds. Satellite classifications
from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS have not changed much during the past
24 hours, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt for this
advisory.

Estelle's refusal to intensify has likely been the result
of shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air. Since the shear
appears to have decreased and the tropical storm is predicted to
remain over warm water for another 36-48 h, one would think that
Estelle should be able to strengthen and finally attain hurricane
status. However, this will likely be dependent on the cyclone
consolidating inner-core convection, which is nearly impossible to
forecast. It may sound like a broken record, but the NHC forecast
once again calls for Estelle to become a hurricane during the next
12 to 24 hours. After 36 h, gradually decreasing SSTs and a less
favorable thermodynamic environment should cause weakening. A faster
rate of reduction in wind speed should occur later in the forecast
period when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 24C, and Estelle is
predicted to become post-tropical on day 4.

Recent fixes indicate that Estelle continues to move west-
northwestward. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from
the previous advisory. Estelle should continue west-northwestward
for the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the
forecast period, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The
track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC
forecast lies between the typically better performing global
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 17.8N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 21.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016

The satellite presentation of Estelle has degraded a bit in the
past few hours with some warming cloud-top temperatures noted near
the center. Convective towers have been seemingly just rotating
around the center without any appreciable increase in inner-core
structure. Satellite classifications have dropped a bit, so the
initial wind speed will be lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.

It is a little puzzling why Estelle has not intensified but it is
likely related to the cyclone's large size and radius of maximum
wind, along with any lingering dry mid-level air. With Estelle
remaining over warm water and experiencing light shear for the next
day or so, it makes sense to think the earlier negative conditions
would eventually be overcome. There is a split tonight in the
guidance, however, with the statistical-dynamical aids
(SHIPS/LGEM) basically showing no intensification, while the
regional dynamical models (HWRF/GFDL) are forecasting Estelle to
become a hurricane. Given what has occurred so far, it is prudent
to drop the intensity forecast from the previous one, but not yet
give up on Estelle becoming a hurricane. A more consistent
weakening should begin in a couple of days over cool waters, with
remnant low status likely by day 4.

Microwave and satellite data indicate that Estelle continues to
move west-northwestward. A large ridge over the eastern Pacific has
been providing a steady steering current for the cyclone. Estelle
should continue moving westward to west-northwestward for the next
several days, then turn northwestward late in the forecast period
due to a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance continues to be
tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast remains very close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.7N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 21.6N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2016 4:56 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Estelle has changed little since the previous advisory. Passive
microwave satellite data indicate that the cyclone has a robust and
nearly symmetrical low-level wind field, but periodic intrusions of
dry mid-level air have continued to prevent the development of a
closed eyewall. The initial intensity remains at 55 kt for this
advisory based on a consensus CI-number of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 285/09 kt. There remains no change to
forecast reasoning from the past couple of days. Estelle is expected
to move a little faster to the west today, followed by a turn back
toward the west-northwest on Wednesday as the ridge to the north
begins to weaken. By Thursday and beyond, a large mid-/upper-level
trough is forecast to drop southwestward and erode the subtropical
ridge, allowing Estelle to turn northwestward and move over much
cooler water as result. The guidance remains in excellent agreement
on this track scenario through 72 h, and then it diverges somewhat
due to differences in the strength and vertical depth of the
cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is a little north of the
consensus model TVCE and is located along the northern edge of the
guidance closer to the ECMWF model solution.

Estelle's failure to intensify to a hurricane remains something of
an enigma given the overall favorable ocean, mid-level humidity, and
low shear conditions that the cyclone has been experiencing. Some
southerly mid-level shear along with intrusions of dry mid-level air
have apparently been disrupting the development of a persistent eye
feature as noted in microwave imagery even this morning. The center
of Estelle is currently moving over a SST thermal ridge were
temperatures are at least 0.5C/1F warmer than indicated by the SHIPS
model. That extra heat energy could finally allow the cyclone to
reach hurricane status later today or tonight. On Wednesday,
however, gradual weakening is forecast to begin as Estelle moves
over cooler waters with SSTs less than 26C, and into a drier and
more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast remains above
all of the guidance through 36 h, and then closely follows the
consensus model IVCN after that. Given that Estelle will be over
nearly 22C SSTs by 72 h, the transition to a remnant low could occur
sooner than currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.5N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 20.3N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 22.1N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 25.0N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 28.5N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 19, 2016 7:07 am

There's now basically no model support for Estelle becoming a hurricane.

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning. The
tropical storm still has several broken bands of convection around
the circulation but microwave data indicate that there has been no
improvement in the inner-core structure. Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have decreased to T3.5, and the initial intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory. Estelle's intensity forecasts have
not been golden since the tropical cyclone has refused to strengthen
during the past couple of days. There still appears to be a short
window in which Estelle could strengthen, but given the lack of
inner-core structure, it appears unlikely that significant
intensification will occur. As a result, the NHC forecast now shows
little change in wind speed tonight. Weakening should begin on
Thursday and continue during the remainder of the period as Estelle
moves over cooler water and into a more stable airmass. The
tropical cyclone is expected to lose convection and become a remnant
low within 72 hours.

There has been no significant change to the track forecast or
reasoning. Estelle continues moving west-northwestward to the
south of the strong subtropical ridge that has steered all of the
July eastern Pacific tropical cyclone westward to west-
northwestward. The western portion of the ridge is finally forecast
to weaken in about 72 hours, which should cause Estelle or its
remnant low to turn northwestward by day 4. The track guidance is
very tightly clustered and the NHC track is near an average of the
GFS/ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.7N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 27.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2016 4:35 pm

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:51 pm

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Convection near the center of Estelle has deepened and become more
symmetric this evening. Microwave data show some improvement in
inner-core structure as well, although the low- and mid-level
centers are still somewhat separated. Subjective Dvorak
classifications are a little higher than 6 hours ago, so the wind
speed is raised to 60 kt.

Little significant change in strength is forecast overnight since
the cyclone is quickly approaching cooler waters. With the recent
upward trends in organization, however, Estelle could sneak up to
hurricane intensity during that time, and this is reflected in the
official forecast. A gradual weakening should begin by late
Wednesday since Estelle will be moving over much cooler waters, with
remnant low status likely by late Friday. The new NHC prediction is
similar to the previous one and the intensity consensus, adjusted
slightly higher for the initial wind speed.

In contrast to the tricky intensity forecasts for Estelle, the
track forecasts have been straightforward. A persistent subtropical
ridge should continue to steer the storm westward to west-
northwestward for the next couple of days. The western portion of
the ridge is finally forecast to erode in about 72 hours, which
will likely cause Estelle or its remnants to turn northwestward by
day 4. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, with
a westward shift to the latest NHC track forecast to better
reflect the newest model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.1N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 19.7N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.3N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 21.1N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 23.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:50 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

Other than a brief warm spot appearing within the small CDO feature
around 0400Z, the overall convective structure of Estelle has
changed little since the previous advisory. Recent microwave
satellite data, especially a 0531Z AMSU pass, continue to indicate
that the cyclone has been unable to completely close off a mid-level
eye feature. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on an average
of subjective and objective intensity estimates, and the lack of a
persistent, well-developed eye feature in microwave data.

Estelle has made a jog to the west, and the motion estimate is now
270/10 kt. Estelle is expected to continue on a westward track for
the next 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by
this afternoon, a motion that is forecast to continue through 48 h.
By 72 h and beyond, Estelle is expected to turn northwestward and
move into a trough-induced break in the subtropical ridge around
130-135W longitude. The new NHC guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and the official forecast track lies close to the
previous advisory track and the consensus model TVCN.

It isn't out of the question that Estelle could still briefly reach
hurricane strength this morning. However, any strengthening that
might occur will be short-lived now that the cyclone is moving over
sub-26C sea-surface temperatures. Although the vertical wind shear
is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to remain quite low,
sharply decreasing SSTs and much drier mid-level air should cause
Estelle to steadily weaken after 12 h. The cyclone is forecast to
become a post-tropical low in 48 h when Estelle will be moving over
22C SSTs, and dissipation is expected by 120 h. The new intensity
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and
closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.0N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.4N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 19.9N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 20.6N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0600Z 24.5N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 28.1N 140.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:38 am

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

Estelle has generally changed little since the previous advisory.
The convective pattern still consists of a well organized curved
band that covers much of the eastern half of the circulation and
fragmented bands to the west of the center. The initial wind speed
is held at 60 kt for this advisory, which is an average of the
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Estelle is crossing the
26 deg C isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler water
during the next few days. In addition, the storm will also be
moving into an atmosphere of drier air and increasing westerly
shear. Given these expected environmental conditions, steady
weakening is forecast during the period, and Estelle will likely
become a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it is over SSTs
around 22 deg C.

The storm is moving westward at about 11 kt on the southwest side
of a large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United
States. Estelle is forecast to reach the western periphery of the
ridge in a couple of days, which should induce a turn to the
northwest. A northwestward motion is expected to continue until
the system dissipates in 4 to 5 days. The models are in good
agreement on this overall scenario, and the new NHC track forecast
is largely an update of the previous one. This track prediction is
in best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.5N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.0N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/1200Z 25.6N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:16 am

Wondering what the record is for most advisories a TC has had just under the cusp of becoming a hurricane (65-70 MPH), either without becoming one or just before becoming one. Estelle has to be a contender for it.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby bg1 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:03 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:Wondering what the record is for most advisories a TC has had just under the cusp of becoming a hurricane (65-70 MPH), either without becoming one or just before becoming one. Estelle has to be a contender for it.


I don't know about the record for being on the cusp specifically, but Olaf in 1997 lasted 16.5 days under hurricane strength, including its final 13.75 days (nearly two weeks!) as a meandering depression.

Also, Isaac in 2012 spent 4.5 days between 50 and 60 knots.
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