EPAC: FRANK - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: FRANK - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:00 pm

EP, 99, 2016071918, , BEST, 0, 82N, 946W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 99, 2016072000, , BEST, 0, 85N, 959W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 99, 2016072006, , BEST, 0, 88N, 970W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 99, 2016072012, , BEST, 0, 91N, 980W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 99, 2016072018, , BEST, 0, 95N, 990W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#2 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:06 pm

The last hurrah of the EPac outbreak? (99E is the red circle with a westward track shown with arrow)

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#3 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:57 pm

What are the models forecasting for this one in terms of intensity?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#4 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:36 pm

In about 4 days from now 99E is going to be tracking over the same cooled down waters from Estelle, Danielle, etc.
Not much support from initial model runs for it to become anything more than a Cat 1 hurricane, if at all.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:00 pm

Hmmm, seems like it could be similar to Estelle then? Unless it organises very quickly to take advantage of the favourable conditions now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:44 pm

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves generally northwestward at about 10 mph to
the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#7 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 20, 2016 7:53 pm

Saved loop

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:52 pm

I'd bet on a minimal hurricane.

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP992016  07/21/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    37    40    49    58    62    65    64    62    61    58
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    37    40    49    58    62    65    64    62    61    58
V (KT) LGEM       25    28    30    32    34    39    43    47    50    52    54    56    56
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        17    17    18    17    18    17    16    13    12    10    10     9    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     0     1     2     0     0     0    -2    -4    -4     0    -2
SHEAR DIR         43    43    51    52    48    56    50    51    52    65    74    73    76
SST (C)         29.3  29.2  29.1  29.1  29.2  29.0  28.9  28.8  28.8  28.9  28.8  27.7  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   159   158   156   156   156   153   152   151   152   154   152   141   133
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1  -0.3  -0.1  -0.1   0.0   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     5
700-500 MB RH     76    75    76    75    75    73    72    73    73    70    64    62    58
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     7     7     7     8     8     9     8     8     6     5     4     2
850 MB ENV VOR    -1     3     0    -1   -11   -29   -11   -14   -17   -22   -20   -20   -18
200 MB DIV        90    85    85    78    75    45    56    49    30    -9   -17   -28   -18
700-850 TADV      -1     2     3     3     2     1     0     1     0    -3    -2     0     0
LAND (KM)        703   698   681   666   651   647   669   685   675   716   664   687   778
LAT (DEG N)     10.2  10.8  11.4  12.0  12.4  13.0  13.4  14.0  15.0  16.2  17.4  18.2  18.8
LONG(DEG W)    100.6 101.9 102.9 103.9 104.6 105.9 107.0 108.2 109.4 110.9 112.5 114.3 116.2
STM SPEED (KT)    13    13    11    10     8     6     6     7     8    10     9    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      33    20    21    23    28    51    51    23    14    19    15    20     8

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11      CX,CY:  -9/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  563  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           17.9

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   6.  14.  21.  26.  29.  31.  32.  32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   1.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -3.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  11.  10.   9.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  12.  15.  24.  33.  37.  40.  39.  37.  36.  33.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   10.2   100.6

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST     07/21/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           3.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   131.9      40.3  to  144.5       0.88           4.5
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    25.0       0.0  to   75.9       0.33           2.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    11.9      38.9  to    2.1       0.73           4.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    17.4      18.9  to    1.4       0.09           0.5
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    82.6     -11.0  to  135.3       0.64           1.8
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    38.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.85           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.53          -0.5
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  26% is   2.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   26.4%   16.9%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     6.9%   19.8%   15.4%    7.3%    4.5%   15.2%   20.5%
    Bayesian:     0.8%   28.4%   17.1%    3.7%    1.4%   17.1%   26.0%
   Consensus:     2.6%   24.9%   16.5%    3.7%    1.9%   10.8%   15.5%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST     07/21/16  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:27 pm

Code: Select all

 21/0000 UTC   12.4N     99.5W       T1.0/1.0         99E -- East Pacific 
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#10 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:42 am

NDG wrote:In about 4 days from now 99E is going to be tracking over the same cooled down waters from Estelle, Danielle, etc.
Not much support from initial model runs for it to become anything more than a Cat 1 hurricane, if at all.


Danielle was in the Atlantic, don't you mean Darby? :D
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:58 am

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization since
yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while it moves generally
northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:51 am

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP992016  07/21/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    34    38    47    53    59    58    56    52    49    45
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    34    38    47    53    59    58    56    52    49    45
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    27    28    29    32    34    37    38    38    37    35    31
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    12    13    15    12    12     7     6     4     7     8     8    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     0     0    -3    -1    -1    -5    -2    -3    -2    -3    -4
SHEAR DIR         30    31    30    47    50    53    85    66    82    88    87    86    78
SST (C)         29.1  29.2  29.2  29.1  29.0  29.0  29.4  29.0  28.0  26.9  25.8  24.3  23.3
POT. INT. (KT)   157   158   157   156   155   154   158   154   143   131   120   104    94
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.3  -0.3  -0.4  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.1   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     8     7     8     7     7     5     5     3     3     1
700-500 MB RH     80    79    77    77    77    74    75    70    71    67    67    63    62
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     7     7     6     7     8     7     7     6     5     4     2     1
850 MB ENV VOR    -1    -8    -3    -8   -15     5    12     2    -8   -16   -10     2     0
200 MB DIV        66    45    28    40    15     6    10    12    -3    -7    -7     7    -8
700-850 TADV       4     4     3     2     1    -1     0    -4    -5    -3     0     0     0
LAND (KM)        481   455   404   381   373   375   415   401   333   310   312   262   319
LAT (DEG N)     13.2 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    11    11    10     8     9     8     6     6     7     7     7
HEAT CONTENT      25    30    33    28    27    20    11    13     8     3     1     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  496  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            6.9

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   6.  14.  21.  26.  29.  30.  30.  29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   1.   1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.   9.  13.  22.  28.  34.  33.  31.  27.  24.  20.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   13.2   102.5

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST     07/21/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36           2.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   131.4      40.3  to  144.5       0.87           4.5
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    28.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.38           2.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    10.8      38.9  to    2.1       0.76           4.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    12.8      18.9  to    1.4       0.35           1.9
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    38.8     -11.0  to  135.3       0.34           1.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    25.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.87           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.5       2.1  to   -1.7       0.68          -0.7
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   2.1 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   27.0%   17.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     8.0%   30.1%   18.4%   10.0%    5.4%   17.0%   23.4%
    Bayesian:     0.5%   18.8%    6.0%    1.3%    0.4%    6.9%   12.7%
   Consensus:     2.8%   25.3%   14.0%    3.8%    1.9%    8.0%   12.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST     07/21/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:54 am

Code: Select all

 21/1145 UTC   13.2N    101.8W       T1.5/1.5         99E -- East Pacific 
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:49 pm

100%-100%

Satellite wind data show that the area of low pressure centered
about 300 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has a well-defined
center and is producing winds of tropical storm force. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized, and
advisories will be initiated on this system as a tropical storm
this afternoon while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E: 100%-100%- Going to be upgraded to Tropical Storm

#15 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:57 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E: 100%-100%- Going to be upgraded to Tropical Storm

#16 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:01 pm

Image

ASCAT suggests it is a TS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:04 pm

18z Best Track at 40kts.

EP, 99, 2016072118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1035W, 40, 1005, DB
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
400 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

A 1600 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated that the weather
system located off the coast of Mexico has developed a well-defined
center of circulation, and maximum winds were around 40 kt. Based
on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm
Frank, the sixth tropical storm to form in the eastern Pacific this
month. Frank currently has broken convective outer banding, but a
burst of convection is developing near the estimated center.

With the recent formation, the initial motion is somewhat uncertain
but is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/12 kt. Frank is
located to the south of a large and strong mid-level anticyclone
which is centered over the Southern Plains of the United States.
Although ridging will remain across the southern U.S. and northern
Mexico, the main center of the anticyclone is expected to migrate
westward over the Pacific Ocean during the next 48 hours, leaving a
minor break in the ridge near the Baja California peninsula. As a
result, Frank is expected to maintain a northwestward heading for
the entire forecast period but with a gradual decrease in forward
speed. There is a normal amount of spread in the track guidance,
and the initial NHC forecast is very near the various multi-model
consensus aids. Although the track is currently off the coast of
Mexico, there is still enough uncertainty that interests in the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Frank. In fact, based on the wind speed
probabilities, there is currently a 1-in-4 chance of tropical storm
force winds affecting locations in extreme southern Baja California
Sur during the next 5 days.

Frank is currently over warm SSTs over 29C, and waters are expected
to remain warm for the next four days or so. Although some
vertical shear could persist for much of the forecast period, the
statistical-dynamical guidance and the HWRF show fairly quick
strengthening over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast
follows suit and is near the higher end of the guidance, making
Frank a hurricane in about 36 hours. Some weakening is anticipated
after day 3 due to cooler waters and the possible continued shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.9N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 16.0N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 19.1N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 20.8N 112.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 23.5N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:44 pm

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:51 pm

Considering current structure, Frank might be a more rapid developer.

Image
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