EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#101 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:32 am

looks to be getting somewhat squashed?

Image
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#102 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:34 pm

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

The eye is no longer seen in infrared imagery, but Georgette still
has a small CDO with tops colder than -70C. The initial intensity
is set to 95 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Rapid weakening is
expected, with Georgette now moving over SSTs of around 25C and
heading for even cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the
downward trend in the guidance this cycle and is close to the LGEM.
Georgette should become post-tropical by 3 days and dissipate by
day 4, although I wouldn't be surprised if both of these occurred
sooner.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/08, as Georgette continues
to be steered northwestward by an upper-level low sliding by to the
north. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Georgette
should continue northwestward until about 36 hours and then
gradually accelerate westward in the low-level flow as a shallow
system. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.0N 127.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 20.0N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 131.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 141.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#103 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:35 pm

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

Georgette has been on a steady weakening trend today. Although the
eye of the hurricane is still apparent in visible images, it is
much less distinct than it was earlier today. In addition, the
convective pattern has become more ragged in appearance and is
stretched from north to south. The initial wind speed is lowered
to 85 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Final T- and CI-numbers
from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin. Georgette is a small cyclone, and based on earlier
scatterometer data, the tropical-storm-force winds extend only 40 n
mi from the center.

The hurricane is over SSTs of about 25 deg C, and it is headed for
even cooler waters during the next few days. These unfavorable
oceanic conditions combined with a drier air mass and an increase
in southeasterly shear should cause additional steady or even rapid
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
SHIPS guidance and now calls for Georgette to become a remnant low
in 48 hours and dissipate by day 4.

Satellite fixes indicate that Georgette has slowed down, as
predicted, and the latest initial motion estimate is 310/6 kt. A
continued slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day
or so while the system moves toward an upper-level low to its
northwest. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to
turn toward the west-northwest and accelerate in the low-level
trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than
the previous one to come in better agreement with the multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 18.2N 128.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.3N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.3N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 21.1N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 22.4N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#104 Postby talkon » Tue Jul 26, 2016 4:20 am

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260845
TCDEP3

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Georgette continues to weaken at a fast pace this morning. Central
deep convection has been diminishing in areal coverage and
intensity, and using a blend of Dvorak T- and Current
Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set at
70 kt. Georgette will be moving over sub-25 deg C waters and
through an environment of dry mid-level air, so continued weakening
is expected. The cyclone's intensity should drop to tropical
storm status today, and below storm strength within 48 hours or
sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little above the
latest numerical model consensus, IVCN.

The slow forward motion continues, and the initial motion estimate
is northwestward or 315/4 kt. Georgette is located to the south
of a weakness in the subtropical ridge and this has likely
contributed to the slow northwestward motion. The ridge is
predicted to build somewhat, and as the weakening tropical cyclone
responds more to the lower-level flow, a gradual turn to the left
with some increase in forward speed is expected during the forecast
period. The official forecast is only slightly slower than the
previous one albeit along about the same trajectory. This is close
to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.5N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 22.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:45 am

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Georgette continues to quickly weaken, with the associated
convection decreasing significantly in both coverage and intensity
since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt
based on a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from
TAFB and SAB. However, the latest estimates from objective
techniques at
CIMSS suggest this could be generous. Georgette should continue to
weaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface
temperatures of 23C-25C, and the intensity forecast calls for the
tropical cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 hours. The system
is subsequently expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

The motion remains slow at 305/3. Water vapor imagery shows a mid-
to upper-level trough is moving westward to the north and northwest
of Georgette. This feature has likely weakened the subtropical
ridge and contributed to the current slow motion. The dynamical
models forecast the ridge to build north of Georgette during the
next 72 hours, which should steer the cyclone or its remnants
northwestward and then westward during the next 72-96 hours. The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just
south of the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 18.4N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.8N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:01 am

Sad :cry: :cry:

She did very very well though. She became much stronger than expected and didn't threaten any landmasses.
:sun:
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Deep convection associated with Georgette continues to decrease
with only one small cluster of showers remaining to the west of
the center. Recent objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates range from 45 kt to 65 kt. Based on the lack of
convection and continuity from the previous advisory, the initial
intensity is reduced to 50 kt. Georgette should continue to
weaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface
temperatures of 23C-25C. The intensity forecast calls for the
cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours based on
the premise that some convection will re-develop during the diurnal
convective maximum Wednesday morning. If this does not happen, the
system should decay to a remnant low on Wednesday.

Georgette has moved little since the last advisory. Water vapor
imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough is moving westward to the
northwest and west of Georgette. This feature has likely weakened
the subtropical ridge and contributed to the current lack of
motion. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to build north of
Georgette during the next 48-72 hours, which should steer the
cyclone or its remnants northwestward and then westward. While the
new forecast track is somewhat slower, it is otherwise similar to
the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 18.4N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.0N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 20.9N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 21.7N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Convective cloud tops continue to warm near Georgette, and there are
no longer any pixels -50C or colder in infrared satellite imagery.
Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are now between
30 kt and 55 kt, so the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt on
this advisory. Georgette will be moving through a dry environment
and over sea surface temperatures between 23-25C during the next
couple of days, which should cause further weakening. If deep
convection does not redevelop, then Georgette will likely become
post-tropical in the next 12-24 hours. The global models then
indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough by day
3.

Center fixes indicate that Georgette is moving again, and the
initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt. A
low- to mid-level trough extending north of Georgette toward the
California coast appears to have been influencing the cyclone's
recent motion. This feature is expected to run out ahead of
Georgette during the next day or two, and a re-establishment of the
subtropical ridge should cause the cyclone to turn west-
northwestward and accelerate through 48 hours. The NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.8N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.4N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1200Z 21.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 21.6N 135.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:07 am

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

Georgette is on borrowed time. Enhanced IR imagery shows no deep
convection associated with the system, and if this condition
persists, the cyclone will be declared a remnant low later today.
The official forecast delays this event slightly, to allow for the
possibility that thunderstorms may redevelop in the circulation.
A scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds were 35
kt, and that these tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the system. A continued spin down of the
circulation over cooler waters is forecast and the cyclone should
dissipate in 2-3 days.

The center is difficult to locate on night time images, but my best
estimate of initial motion is 310/5 kt. Georgette, or its remnant
low, should move on a west-northwestward to westward heading, within
the low-level tradewinds, until dissipation. The official track
forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 19.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1800Z 21.2N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 21.2N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

#110 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:44 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

Georgette has been devoid of organized deep convection since about
0100 UTC. The cyclone is currently located over 24.5 deg C SSTs and
moving toward colder water. In addition, Georgette has entrained a
large field of stable stratocumulus clouds, which now completely
encircle the system. Therefore, Georgette is now declared a remnant
low, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a
0534Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that contained one 34-kt wind
vector, and an assumed gradual spin-down of the circulation since
then.

The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. A west-northwestward to
westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days while the low continues to weaken.
Dissipation is forecast to occur by 72 hours.

Even though Georgette is no longer a tropical cyclone, recent
altimeter data indicated that an area of seas higher than 12 ft
still existed near the system. For additional information, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.5N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 28/0000Z 20.1N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 20.8N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 21.1N 134.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 21.0N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

#111 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:15 pm

Well, adieu to Georgette... :( :(

But it defied the odds and became much stronger than expected.

Not to mention that huge jump from Category 1 to Category 4 in 12 hours.
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