EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:55 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

ASCAT-B scatterometer data from 0448 UTC indicate that the
depression's winds have not strengthened yet, and the initial
intensity remains 30 kt. Some banding is trying to form, but most
of the convection is displaced to the west of the center due to 15
kt of east-northeasterly shear. Although sea surface temperatures
near the cyclone are very warm--around 29C--the shear is likely to
continue for at least the next 24-36 hours. The shear should then
decrease after 36 hours with SSTs remaining warm through day 3,
giving the cyclone an opportunity to strengthen to hurricane
intensity in a couple of days. After day 3, a cooler ocean and a
drier air mass should lead to gradual weakening. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours,
showing a slightly slower intensification trend in the short term
compared to the previous forecast. The official forecast is a
little higher than SHIPS between 36 and 72 hours and then is closest
to the LGEM model on days 4 and 5.

The depression remains on track with an initial motion of 295/11
kt. Strong mid-level ridging extending from the south-central
United States southwestward over the Pacific Ocean is expected to
maintain the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading for the next
48 hours. The ridge is expected to shift westward between
California and Hawaii on days 3 through 5, impeding the cyclone's
forward motion and causing it to turn northwestward and slow down
considerably. There's not much spread among the track guidance,
and the updated NHC track forecast has been placed very near the
TVCE model consensus. This forecast is a little slower than the
previous forecast at 36 hours and beyond.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 11.8N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.4N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.7N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 15.8N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 128.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 22, 2016 8:27 am

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  EIGHT       EP082016  07/22/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    39    43    47    50    59    67    70    70    69    67    62    57
V (KT) LAND       35    39    43    47    50    59    67    70    70    69    67    62    57
V (KT) LGEM       35    38    40    43    46    52    58    62    63    62    60    57    52
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        15    15    11    10    10     5     3     4     8    11    14    14    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -4    -6    -5    -7    -3     0    -2    -2    -5    -3    -1    -1
SHEAR DIR         72    74    78    90   113   111   111    34    60    79    72    85    82
SST (C)         28.5  28.3  28.2  28.0  28.1  27.9  27.6  26.9  26.1  25.6  25.4  25.0  24.4
POT. INT. (KT)   150   148   147   144   145   142   139   132   123   117   115   110   105
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.7   0.6   0.5
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     7     7     7     6     6     6     5     4     3
700-500 MB RH     69    65    66    63    60    59    56    58    57    59    57    59    55
MODEL VTX (KT)    13    14    15    14    14    16    18    17    16    17    17    16    15
850 MB ENV VOR    20    23    27    27    18    31    18    17    -2     8     6    31    40
200 MB DIV        42    58    68    54    41    36    20    32    10    -2     2    22     6
700-850 TADV      -2    -2    -2     0    -1    -1    -5    -7    -8    -4    -3     0    -3
LAND (KM)       1389  1412  1444  1484  1528  1586  1652  1687  1707  1705  1749  1765  1772
LAT (DEG N)     12.1  12.5  12.8  13.2  13.5  14.0  14.6  15.4  16.3  17.0  17.2  17.7  18.5
LONG(DEG W)    116.6 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.6 122.2 123.8 125.0 126.0 126.8 127.6 128.3 129.1
STM SPEED (KT)    11    10    10    10     9     8     8     7     6     4     4     4     6
HEAT CONTENT      24    24    24    24    25    16    20     9     4     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11      CX,CY:  -9/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  554  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  68.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            3.8

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   7.  11.  15.  18.  19.  20.  19.  18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   8.   9.   9.   9.   8.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   1.   4.   6.   5.   4.   4.   4.   3.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  12.  15.  24.  32.  35.  35.  34.  32.  27.  22.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   35. LAT, LON:   12.1   116.6

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082016 EIGHT      07/22/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           3.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   111.7      40.3  to  144.5       0.69           3.5
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    24.2       0.0  to   75.9       0.32           2.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    19.6      38.9  to    2.1       0.52           3.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    12.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.37           2.1
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    35.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.35           1.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    52.6     -11.0  to  135.3       0.43           1.2
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   170.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.66           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.9       2.1  to   -1.7       0.31          -0.3
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  24% is   1.8 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  11% is   2.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     8.6%   23.7%   17.3%   11.9%   10.6%   15.0%   14.8%
    Logistic:     1.6%   10.0%    4.0%    1.7%    0.8%    3.6%    3.5%
    Bayesian:     0.0%   10.4%    3.3%    0.6%    0.1%    0.5%    0.8%
   Consensus:     3.4%   14.7%    8.2%    4.7%    3.8%    6.4%    6.4%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 EIGHT      07/22/16  12 UTC         ##
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:36 am

"Georgette" is starting to form an eye. Perhaps that will be enough for the NHC to upgrade it to a TS?
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:56 am

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

The satellite presentation of the cyclone has improved during the
past few hours, with an increase in deep convection in a developing
CDO and a large but fractured convective band in the western
semicircle. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt based on
a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt
from SAB. A 0931Z GPM pass showed that some inner-core structure
has developed, but moderate easterly shear is forecast to persist
for the next couple of days. This envirionment should allow for
steady strengthening while the storm moves over SSTs above 28C.
SSTs cool below 26C after 72 hours, which suggests slow weakening
late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward given the initial intensity but keeps the same peak
intensity. This forecast is above the intensity consensus and near
the latest SHIPS and LGEM predictions through 5 days.

The initial motion estimate is 295/11 and Georgette should be
steered west-northwestward by the east Pacific subtropical ridge for
the next 2 to 3 days. Later in the forecast period the ridge shifts
westward, which should cause a decrease in forward speed and a bend
in the track toward the northwest. The track model guidance is in
generally good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC track
forecast is along the previous one but is a little faster, and is
close to the latest multi-model consensus.

The formation of Georgette as the seventh named storm in the basin
this month ties the July record for the most named storm formations,
which was set in 1985.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.3N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 118.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 13.5N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.0N 122.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 18.5N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:20 am

The recent GPM pass looks pretty good. Georgette has some solid banding.

Image
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 11:32 am

1900hurricane wrote:The recent GPM pass looks pretty good. Georgette has some solid banding.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/E ... W.52pc.jpg


Agreed, especially on the western side, although the cloud tops have warmed a bit in the last couple frames.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:12 pm

Storm structure can be seen quite well on visible imagery this morning.

Image
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 22, 2016 12:13 pm

Looks really good on visible. This might get stronger a little quicker than expected.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:34 pm

Looks to be steadily deepening and is likely a strong TS.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:18 pm

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  22 JUL 2016    Time :   193000 UTC
      Lat :   12:41:54 N     Lon :  118:09:01 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.5 / 997.9mb/ 55.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.5     3.6     3.8

 Center Temp : -68.5C    Cloud Region Temp : -60.7C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   45km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1013mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES15
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.5 degrees


Raw T# up to 3.8! Wow.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Georgette has continued to strengthen today. A small central dense
overcast is present in geostationary imagery with a well-defined
low-level eye seen in a 1415Z WindSat pass. A hint of an eye was
also noted in earlier visible imagery. The initial intensity is set
at 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5/55 kt and
the UW-CIMSS ADT of T3.4/53 kt at 18Z. It appears that the shear
has relaxed at least somewhat over the cyclone today, and the SSTs
of over 28C should be conducive for at least steady intensification
in the next 36 to 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast has
again been adjusted upward and is above the intensity consensus and
close to the LGEM model. Note that the HWRF shows more rapid
intensification in the short range, which is possible. Later in the
forecast period the SSTs gradually cool, which should result in
steady weakening at days 3 through 5.

The initial motion is now a little faster toward the west-northwest
at 295/13. Georgette should continue on this heading for the next
48 hours while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the
northeast. After that time an upper-level low will undercut the
ridge northwest of the tropical cyclone, which should result in a
slower motion toward the northwest at days 3 and 4, followed by a
turn back toward the west-northwest at day 5 as the ridge rebuilds.
The new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but is again
faster during the first 72 hours following the guidance trend. Late
in the period the new NHC track is a little to the left of the
previous one and is close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.8N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.4N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.0N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 17.0N 127.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 19.0N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:46 pm

In my opinion this could become a major. It's increased by 25 knots since yesterday when it formed and still has a couple days in rather favourable conditions.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:37 pm

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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 22, 2016 4:49 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:In my opinion this could become a major. It's increased by 25 knots since yesterday when it formed and still has a couple days in rather favourable conditions.


It could but it's CDO is not super thick, which is what I'd really like to see at this intensity.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

This evening's satellite presentation has revealed some
deterioration of the cloud pattern. Georgette's earlier impressive,
banding-eye feature is no longer present, and recent microwave
images indicate a more sheared, tilted structure. Apparently,
modest northeasterly shear has once again returned and has partially
exposed the center of circulation to the east of the strongest
convection. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory and is based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5 from
TAFB and SAB. The large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model all
show the shear lingering for the next 24 hours or so. Subsequently,
only modest strengthening is reflected, but all the
statistical-dynamical guidance show Georgette still becoming a
hurricane in 12 hours. The intensity models indicate further
strengthening through mid-period, then agree on a gradual weakening
trend through day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario
and is based on the combination of the IVCN multi-model consensus
and the stronger HWRF hurricane model.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 290/11. A
mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States should continue to
steer Georgette in this general direction for the next 36 hours.
Afterward, a retrograding upper-tropospheric trough, embedded in the
deep-layer easterly flow south of the ridge axis, is expected to
temporarily disrupt the steering flow just enough to cause Georgette
to decrease in speed and turn toward the northwest. Late in the
period, the ridge should reestablish north of the cyclone and turn
Georgette back toward the west-northwest. The NHC forecast is
quite similar to the last one, and closely follows the TVCN
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.2N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.3N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 17.5N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 18.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 19.4N 131.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 22, 2016 9:44 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2016 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 13:08:09 N Lon : 119:14:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 993.7mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -68.9C Cloud Region Temp : -58.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:19 pm

The dreaded shear has returned unexpectedly. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:39 am

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Georgette's convective canopy has expanded and become a little more
symmetric over the past few hours. An 0515 UTC AMSU pass revealed a
mid-level microwave eye, but this feature appeared to be displaced
to the west of the low-level center by more than half a degree of
longitude. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB,
the initial intensity remains 55 kt.

SHIPS guidance indicates that a little more than 15 kt of easterly
shear is still affecting Georgette. However, the shear is expected
to gradually diminish, falling below 10 kt in 18-24 hours, and sea
surface temperatures should remain higher than 26C for about the
next 48 hours. Therefore, slow strengthening is anticipated at
first, with a faster intensification rate likely once the shear
has abated. Since little to no shear is expected in 36-48 hours,
the NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance
spectrum, closest to the HWRF model. After 48 hours, steady
weakening is anticipated due to cooler SSTs, increasing shear, and
a drier atmosphere.

The low-level center has been tough to locate tonight, so an
initial motion of 290/11 kt is maintained for continuity's sake.
The strong mid-level ridge to the north of Georgette is expected to
weaken and shift to a position between California and Hawaii during
the next few days. Georgette should therefore turn northwestward
and slow down after 36 hours. There is very little spread among
the track guidance during the entire forecast period, and the
updated NHC track forecast is nudged a little north and east of the
previous forecast in deference to the GFS and ECMWF models, which
lie on the right-hand side of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.5N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.0N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.0N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 23, 2016 8:54 am

Definitely this is not 2015 & 2014, EPAC has been producing a lot of storms but they have struggled to become Major Hurricanes.

Yet another one that has lost model support to become a Cat 2 and or higher.

Image
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:43 am

TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Georgette's cloud pattern has transitioned to a CDO with a curved
band in the western semicircle during the past few hours. A 0908Z
AMSR2 pass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye feature, but this was
displaced southwest of the low-level center due to about 10 kt of
northeasterly shear. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still an
opportunity for Georgette to strengthen, as the shear is expected to
decrease below 10 kt by 12 hours while the cyclone will remain over
SSTs above 26C until about 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast
remains near the high end of the guidance in the first couple of
days and is close to the HWRF model. After 48 hours, weakening is
expected due to a combination of cooling SSTs, increasing shear and
a drier more stable atmosphere. During this time, the new NHC
forecast is lower, trending toward the latest LGEM output.

With the help of the above-mentioned AMSR pass, the initial motion
is estimated to be 290/11. There is no change to the track forecast
reasoning, as Georgette will be steered by a strong mid-level ridge
to the north that will weaken and shift westward during the next
several days. This should result in a continued west-northwestward
motion for the next 36 hours, followed by a northwestward motion at
48 and 72 hours with a decrease in forward speed. A turn back
toward the west-northwest is expected at days 4 and 5 as the ridge
rebuilds to the north. The track model guidance is in generally
good agreement on this scenario, but there is some cross-track
spread between the HWRF and COAMPS-TC on the left side of the
guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the right side. The new NHC
track is largely an update of the previous one with with a slight
southward adjustment toward the latest multi-model consensus. This
forecast is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.9N 121.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.4N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.3N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.2N 126.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.1N 127.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.2N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 19.0N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.0N 133.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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