EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#61 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:05 pm

Eye cooling again.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2016 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 15:55:32 N Lon : 125:39:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.9mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:12 pm

Eye warming again.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 16:04:02 N Lon : 125:42:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 962.0mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:22 pm

Image

Clearly T6.0 here with WMG surrounded by B embedded in LG.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#64 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:23 pm

Very picturesque. Just hold on a little longer and Cat 4 easy.

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#65 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:28 pm

It's very nice to see Georgette make a recovery after taking a touch of easterly shear a couple of days ago. If it weren't for that shear (probably at least partially influenced by Frank's equatorial outflow channel), Georgette may have actually taken off sooner.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#66 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:31 pm

This is a clear Cat3 right now if you ask me. Cat4 seems not a stretched possibility..
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#67 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:33 pm

Given all the cold ENSO talk, it is impressive that the EPAC can still pull off this kind of things in a single month...
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:34 pm

Code: Select all

   EP, 08, 201607250000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1610N, 12580W,      , 1, 115, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  MT,  VIM, 1, 6060 /////,      ,   , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE  MET=5.0 PT=5.5 FTBO DT
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#69 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:35 pm

dexterlabio wrote:Given all the cold ENSO talk, it is impressive that the EPAC can still pull off this kind of things in a single month...


Because of +PDO. Most of the Nina/+PDO years in the 80's were like this.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#70 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:36 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:Given all the cold ENSO talk, it is impressive that the EPAC can still pull off this kind of things in a single month...


Because +PDO.


Yep and it doesn't hurt that the Nina progress is very slow and won't likely settle until well later. More like a 1983 than 1998.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:43 pm

Raw T's have leveled off but Final T's are rising.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 JUL 2016 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 16:06:28 N Lon : 125:45:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.0mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.9 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.3C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#72 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:49 pm

105kts.

EP, 08, 2016072500, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1258W, 105, 961, HU
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:56 pm

:uarrow: TAFB I assume was at 5.5 which makes since given their history with Dvorak
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#74 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:06 pm

Beautiful on satellite. EPAC continues to roll in the year of what La Niña? How about "La Nada" to use Ntwx's phrase. I think not just PDO, but waters north of the equator and south of Mexico were quite a bit above normal, much like an El Niño. Basically we are seeing residual El Niño effects from the 2015 Godzilla El Niño. Our met Alyono, noticed these SSTs many months ago and mentioned we could see some big activity with some threats to Hawaii and things are panning out that way.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#75 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:25 pm

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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#76 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:59 pm

Not surprisingly, structure as revealed by microwave is quite good.

Image
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#77 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:14 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +12.2C Cloud Region Temp : -63.8C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#78 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:22 pm

Impressive

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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#79 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:23 pm

Image

Nearing T6.5.
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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Hurricane

#80 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:30 pm

With the sun going down now, the resulting net increase in OLR could help give Georgette that little bump. BD whites are already noticeably increasing in the CDO.

Also, I'm curious why SSD's and RAMMB's BD images are calibrated slightly differently. RAMMB seems to be running a little colder than SSD. Here's RAMMB's 0200Z BD image to compare with the SSD image above of the same timestamp.

Image
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