Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

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cycloneye
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Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:53 am

AL, 96, 2016072606, , BEST, 0, 97N, 32W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
AL, 96, 2016072612, , BEST, 0, 97N, 57W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
AL, 96, 2016072618, , BEST, 0, 97N, 82W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
AL, 96, 2016072700, , BEST, 0, 97N, 106W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
AL, 96, 2016072706, , BEST, 0, 98N, 130W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS009, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
AL, 96, 2016072712, , BEST, 0, 99N, 153W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118085&p=2514496#p2514496
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:59 am

They were pretty quick with making this an invest!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:05 am

Nice, it's up on the NHC. At 10%/20% now.

1. A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this disturbance during the next several
days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:15 am

Here we go!!! But I think this is not the strong tropical wave that the Euro has coming through the Leeward Islands by Saturday/Saturday night, so we may have another invest later this week?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:19 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271126
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this disturbance during the next several
days
while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby mobilebay » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:25 am

Finally, something to get excited about. For now anyway... Lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:25 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016



A tropical wave came off the Western coast of Africa earlier this
morning. The wave extends from 07N-20N with axis near 18W,
expected to move at 10 kt within the next 24 hours. Heavy showers
and isolated tstms associated with the wave are from 05N-20N E of
21W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:27 am

mobilebay wrote:Finally, something to get excited about. For now anyway... Lol

Yeah, it's about time something showed up. I've been waiting a month for this moment, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:34 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:48 am

From Tropicaltidbits
:rarrow: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Invest 96L
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 27, 2016:


Location: 9.9°N 15.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:56 am

A big question is going to be the timing and interaction with the next SAL outbreak that the models show starting today. If the wave moves too fast, it might move into the back of the dry/warm layer before the air mass gets a chance to moderate.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby USTropics » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:01 am

Current visible images:

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:12 am

Walla, the MDR begins to awaken. I think last half of August is going to see a good ramp up, everything is set once the SAL relaxes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:26 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Walla, the MDR begins to awaken. I think last half of August is going to see a good ramp up, everything is set once the SAL relaxes.

I hope so, the SAL is annoying me... But this is typical for July, by August/September/October things will improve, and the season will actually get started.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby JaxGator » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:29 am

Hey, I see we have an invest and still in July too. Sweet.
Last edited by JaxGator on Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:16 am

Spin looks pretty good and convection is around the area of spin. SAL should not be a problem at least for the next 4-5 days or so. The wave out in front has helped clear it out.

Link to floater from RAMMB:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:45 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance during the next several days while
the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:57 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion-2 PM TWO up to 30%-40%

#20 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:03 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion...correction for satellite time
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016



Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along
15W/16W from 7N to inland over Africa moving west 10 to 15 kt
over the past 6 hours. The wave was relocated based on latest
scatterometer pass at 27/1120 UTC. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough south of 12N as depicted in the global models and is
embedded within broad area of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 5N-10N between 11W-20W and from 14N-17N
between 27W-29W.
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