Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#81 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:49 pm

Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.
3 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#82 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.

I agree 57. Feedback going on by the looks of it. 97L has helped the PW in the area and in front. It has a chance to make a run at getting a name at this pace.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7279
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#83 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.


A good analog for this invest may be Dorian in 2013

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#84 Postby Kazmit » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:08 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.


A good analog for this invest may be Dorian in 2013

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service


I second this. Very similar location to Dorian's path, and at the same time period too- the end of July.
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5270
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#85 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:17 pm

The tropics are heating up again as August comes.
0 likes   

Socalhurcnegirl227
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 267
Age: 35
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#86 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:04 am

TS DORIAN, yup literally almost to a T just wondering if the conditions might be more conducive later to a Cat 1 develop given 97L doesnt survive and creates a better environment for growth rather than staying at TS
Image
0 likes   
"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#87 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:20 am

Latest IR indicates only mid-level spin and still probably open to the north (which is odd with a westward system, but with the monsoon trough as far north as it is it's to be expected) and the main convection seems to be on the line of convergence well SW of the mid-level spin.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#88 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 29, 2016 5:43 am

Looked almost closed yesterday so could be a TD now.
There is good inflow with rotation visible.
The high cirrus is drying out a little rather than expanding and reinforcing the inflow.
Probably stay a small system if the dry trend continues.
0 likes   

User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#89 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Jul 29, 2016 5:48 am

Nimbus wrote:Looked almost closed yesterday so could be a TD now.
There is good inflow with rotation visible.
The high cirrus is drying out a little rather than expanding and reinforcing the inflow.
Probably stay a small system if the dry trend continues.


It is about to fail the poof test I have heard people mentioning on here. You can see dry air is getting into the system now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

SAL is still a big factor heading into August.
0 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#90 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 5:53 am

Pressure down to 1009 mb compared to the previous TWD.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


A tropical wave is in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 18N22.5W to a 1009 mb low near 11N22.5W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides well with a low to mid level trough extending
northward through the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the center.
Despite increased convection, the earlier microwave imagery showed
the low level structure is still fairly weak at this time.
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#91 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 29, 2016 5:58 am

We don't have access to the new 10 meter resolution geostationary loops with 5 minute revisit but it does look closed.
Even if the CDO gets blown south fxposing a LLC, I would be real surprised if we didn't see another burst of convection..
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#92 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:06 am

First appareance on SSD... with increasing numbers.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/0545 UTC 12.0N 21.7W T 1.5/1.5 96L
29/0000 UTC 11.4N 20.7W T1.0/1.0 96L
28/1800 UTC 11.0N 20.6W T1.0/1.0 96L
28/1200 UTC 10.4N 19.9W T1.0/1.0 96L
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#93 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:17 am

National Hurricane Center Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic For Development

Tom Moore
Published: July 29, 2016

:rarrow: https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropi ... son-invest

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to watch a pair of disturbances over the Atlantic Ocean that have some potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next few days.

Both areas of interest are tropical waves – a batch of energy and general spin in the atmosphere that develops due to temperature contrasts on either side of Africa's Sahel region – that are moving west across the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The first tropical wave - designated Invest 96-L - was located just west of Africa, or several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo Verde. This naming convention is used by the NHC to identify features that are being monitored for potential future development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

As of Friday morning, the NHC indicated that Invest 96-L had a medium (40 percent) chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next five days. The disturbance exhibited a nice pulse of convection overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, but was headed into a fresh surge of dry air moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A second tropical wave - designated Invest 97-L - was located more than 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

This separate tropical wave has been given a low (30 percent) chance to develop during the next five days. The NHC said that this system's fast movement was a negative to development. The aforementioned dry air in the region also may be playing a role in keeping convection rather disorganized.

Regardless of development, showers and some gusty winds should spread into the Leeward Islands this weekend, as occurs with most all tropical waves moving through.

These are the first tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean to have a chance to develop this season, which is why they have our attention. However, they both have a long way to go, and there's plenty of time to monitor the disturbances as they track west, so there's no need to have any major concerns at the moment.

Technically, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Much of the tropical activity occurs between the second week of August and the second week of October. In late July and early August, we begin to keep an eye on the eastern Atlantic as it begins to show signs of life.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#94 Postby drezee » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:28 am

Nimbus wrote:Looked almost closed yesterday so could be a TD now.
There is good inflow with rotation visible.
The high cirrus is drying out a little rather than expanding and reinforcing the inflow.
Probably stay a small system if the dry trend continues.

visible is showing low level banding...if it was in the GOM...we would likely have a TC classified
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#95 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:32 am

ASCAT will be in the area soon. Hopefully it catches it this time. Looks really impressive though.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#96 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:51 am

Up to 40%-50%

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Some
additional development is possible during the next day or two before
the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the
central tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#97 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:58 am

:uarrow: Conditions still expected to become unfavorable in a few days? But a CCKW will passing be passing through the Atlantic July 30th-August 4th.

By the way, has anyone else noticed the new improved shear graphic?

Image

Image
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#98 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:11 am

Still looks like the next push of SAL will go west of 96L, but that means it will move into drier and more stable air in a few days. The conditions right now are probably the best it will see for a while.
1 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#99 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:28 am

First mention as a special feature.
Tropical Weather Discussion...AMENDED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 18N22.5W to a 1009 mb low near 11N22.5W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides well with a low to mid level trough extending
northward through the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the center.
Despite increased convection, the earlier microwave imagery
showed the low level structure is still fairly weak at this time.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#100 Postby Kazmit » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:09 am

Up to 40%/50% now. Looks more impressive on satellite imagery than 97L, and is better organized than when I last saw it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed img to direct link
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests