Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

[TheStormExpert]

Still looking vigorious and healthy! Still has yet to go through the poof test.

[cycloneye]

18z Best track:

Location: 10.2°N 17.6°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[Gustywind]

Still looking vigorious and healthy! Still has yet to go through the poof test.

http://i64.tinypic.com/r8rndz.png

Looks like an impressive complex with lots of convection expanding nicely as the TWD mentionned. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 5N-10N between 11W-20W and from 14N-17N between 27W-29W. Looking very good this afternoon, beginning interresting to monitor...

[abajan]

I was surprised to learn that the 2-day and 5-day chances for development had jumped so high in the 2PM TWO.

[TheStormExpert]

I was surprised to learn that the 2-day and 5-day chances for development had jumped so high in the 2PM TWO.

I was too, the wave ahead of it seems to now have a higher chance to develop with better model support than 96L.

[RL3AO]

This has a 2 to 3 day window to develop IMO. It'll struggle once it runs into the more stable air in the central Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

I was surprised to learn that the 2-day and 5-day chances for development had jumped so high in the 2PM TWO.

I was too, the wave ahead of it seems to now have a higher chance to develop with better model support than 96L.

So we have to monitor all these twaves in case of... they showed us that the season is picking up time to go out the bed

[Gustywind]

Interesting discussion from Jeff Masters about 96L.


First African Tropical Wave of the Year to Achieve 'Invest' Designation: 96L

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... rynum=3366

By: Jeff Masters , 15:21 GMT le 27 juillet 2016

One of the strongest tropical waves of the 2016 African monsoon season moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days as it tracks westwards at 15 - 20 mph into the middle Atlantic. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 96L on Wednesday morning--the first "Invest" of the year for an African tropical wave, and something we'll see a lot more of as once the Atlantic hurricane season hits high gear during the mid-August through late September peak of the season. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed 96L had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which were poorly organized and had no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear was moderate, near 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28°C (82°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average.

Forecast for 96L
Steering currents favor a westerly motion for 96L, with the system slowing down in forward speed late this week and reaching a point near 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa, on Monday. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted modestly favorable conditions for development through Friday, with wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and warm SSTs near 28°C. However, on Saturday and Sunday, 96L will encounter cooler waters, with temperatures a marginal 26°C. The SHIPS model also predicts that wind shear over the weekend will rise to the high range, above 20 knots, and the atmosphere will get very dry, due to an intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (check out this animation of the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) These unfavorable conditions would stymie any development of 96L, but forecasts of dry air and wind shear this far into the future are unreliable.

The Wednesday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported some limited development of 96L, but stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression. The 00Z Wednesday run of the GFS ensemble forecast, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had about 40% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Less than 10% of the 50 members of the 00Z Wednesday European ensemble model forecasts showed a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic over the next ten days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. Though the long-range uncertainty on what 96L might do is high, one reasonable scenario is for the system to steadily grow in organization the next few days, come close to or achieve tropical depression status by Saturday, then get ripped apart by wind shear and dry air well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week. Should 96L overachieve, the next name on the Atlantic list of named storms is Earl.

[Comanche]

Look at all the gasoline in the Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

From the Weather Channel.

Watching a Tropical System in the Atlantic
weather.com

Posted: Jul 27 2016 03:00 PM EDT

Updated: Jul 27 2016 03:18 PM EDT


Meteorologist Kait Parker is keeping her eye on a newly formed invest in the Atlantic Ocean.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/vi ... atlantic-0

[Kazmit]

Sweet, it's up to 30%/40% now. Looks like we could get a July storm after all!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
However, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development early next week while the system is over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Berg

[SFLcane]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
However, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development early next week while the system is over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Berg

Hmmm... were have I seen that before?

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
However, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development early next week while the system is over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Berg

Hmmm... were have I seen that before?

This isn't going to be a strong system if it develops. The other wave in the Central Atlantic is certainly worth watching next week.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 272346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016


A tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis that
extends from 15N18W to 07N19W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the
past 12 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of
12N as depicted in the global models and is embedded within broad
area of abundant moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N
between 12W-21W.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 10.0°N 18.2°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[wxman57]

I'm not so enthusiastic about development. Just like many early Cape Verde systems, it has a bit of a twist coming off Africa but most fall apart in a day or two. Have a feeling this one won't look like much in a couple of days.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not so enthusiastic about development. Just like many early Cape Verde systems, it has a bit of a twist coming off Africa but most fall apart in a day or two. Have a feeling this one won't look like much in a couple of days.

What are your thoughts about the one ahead of it?

[RL3AO]

I'd be very surprised if this does anything more than a weak TS in the next 2 to 3 days (and thats if it over-achieves). The wave ahead of it should be watched if it gets into Bahamas next week.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/758591128686002176