Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#101 Postby JaxGator » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:17 am

Wouldn't 96L's moisture envelope help to somewhat protect it form the SAl?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#102 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:28 am

Image

Winds are meh. Monsoon trough has helped close it off, but probably not to a level of organization to be considered TCG.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#103 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:33 am

JaxGator wrote:Wouldn't 96L's moisture envelope help to somewhat protect it form the SAl?


Need to remember that a SAL is not only a dry layer, but its a warm layer. It transposes a very warm/dry layer on top of a tropical boundary layer. This means the atmosphere is very stable/capped in the mid-levels that makes it difficult for any small system to overcome. You also combine this with the sinking air from a suppressed kelvin wave and generally divergent surface flow, it means the central Atlantic will be unfavorable in a few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#104 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:37 am

96L does have a decent protective moisture plume and anticyclonic flow aloft. But a suppressed Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave may limit the 'spark' needed to develop this disturbance.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:27 am

Got a good AMSR2 pass recently. Streamlines can easily be seen directed towards and wrapping into the invest, but it doesn't look they all converge into one central point, implying a weak pressure gradient. This is in good agreement with the recent ASCAT pass, which showed weak winds associated with 96L. The SAL to the north is also very noticeable.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#106 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:43 pm

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation. Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#107 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:15 pm

Image
TAFB now showing 96L as Possible Tropical Cyclone in 72 hours... 97L still shown as TW...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#108 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:38 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical wave extends from 12N23W to 19N26W moving W at 10 kt. A
1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis
where global model data indicates a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity.
The wave itself coincides with a low to mid level
trough extending northward to the immediate west of the Cape Verde
islands along 25N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N
between 21W-27W. This area has a medium potential for tropical
cyclone development during the next 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#109 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:53 pm

It looks like it peaked yesterday. Convection is dropping off, as is typical with waves as they move away from Africa this time of year. Will have to keep an eye on it as it crosses the Atlantic over the coming week, but the immediate threat of development/classification is decreasing. It may have qualified, technically, as a depression yesterday, but the NHC likes to give these strong disturbances a couple of days to sort themselves out before deciding to classify them. Quite often, they look very impressive near Africa then weaken, as 96L appears to be doing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#110 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and
a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles south of
Cabo Verde continues to show signs of organization. Although this
system does not have a well-defined circulation at this time, some
development is still possible during the next day or two before the
disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central
tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#111 Postby sunnyday » Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:17 pm

So. Fla met said tonight that 96L will be a fish storm. Anyone agree?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#112 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:25 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
that extends from 18N27W to a 1010 mb low near 12N25W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt. The wave coincides with
a low to mid-level trough extending northward to the west of the
Cabo Verde islands along 26W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N-12N between 24W-30W. This area has a medium potential
for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 h.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#113 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:44 pm

sunnyday wrote:So. Fla met said tonight that 96L will be a fish storm. Anyone agree?
looking this i dont see fish yet we have see Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#114 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:00 pm

I would also watch this one as this will probably poof for now but you can't discount a possibility for regeneration farther west as it gets out from under the stable SAL airmass right near the Lesser Antilles

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#115 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:35 am

sunnyday wrote:So. Fla met said tonight that 96L will be a fish storm. Anyone agree?


Disagree. It's an absurd statement to make. This is going due West for a while.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#116 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:37 am

the met is right. This will dissipate long before impacting any land areas not named Cape Verde
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#117 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:12 am

Decreasing numbers for 96L...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0600 UTC 13.5N 26.6W TOO WEAK 96L
29/2345 UTC 13.6N 25.4W T1.0/1.5 96L
29/1745 UTC 12.3N 24.3W T1.5/1.5 96L
29/1145 UTC 12.6N 22.5W T1.5/1.5 96L
29/0545 UTC 12.0N 21.7W T1.5/1.5 96L
29/0000 UTC 11.4N 20.7W T1.0/1.0 96L
28/1800 UTC 11.0N 20.6W T1.0/1.0 96L
28/1200 UTC 10.4N 19.9W T1.0/1.0 96L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#118 Postby ninel conde » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:14 am

Alyono wrote:the met is right. This will dissipate long before impacting any land areas not named Cape Verde


I agree.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#119 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:54 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Cabo Verde has become less organized during the past
24 hours. However, there is still a chance for some development
during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less
favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#120 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:57 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
that extends from 19N28.5W to a 1010 mb low near 11N26W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt. The wave is associated
with a low to mid-level trough extending northward to the west of
the Cabo Verde Islands along 27W. An earlier scatterometer pass
indicated strong southwest to west winds converging into the low,
supporting scattered moderate convection from 10N to 12N between
25W and 28W. This area has a medium potential for tropical cyclone
development during the next 48 hours
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