ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 6:55 am

Models only here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#2 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:09 am

Looking at the full rez 0Z euro run on Weatherbell it tracks a wind signature and occasionally a low center all the way into south Florida.

Tropical Tidbits vorticity GIF
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#3 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:11 am

Here's a spagetti model, shows it moving to the WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:15 am

Intensity models are bullish but is early.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:16 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:32 am

Seems more developed near or north of the lesser and greater antilles on the Euro than the GFS and also the Euro is much faster than the GFS which means we won't really know until sometime this weekend what might happen with this

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#7 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:38 am

GFS seems to lose the storm when it runs into the back of the next SAL outbreak thats beginning today.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:28 am

12Z GEM a little stronger:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:19 pm

18Z Model Guidance.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#10 Postby USTropics » Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:07 pm

12z Ensemble Probability % of TC Genesis:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 3:18 pm

12Z UKMET going for development:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#12 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:27 pm

Latest GFS & ECMWF show nothing more than a shallow TW moving across the Atlantic, on a similar track, and just off shore from SE Florida @7 days from now. We've seen this movie over and over for many years, conditions just not favorable in the MDR or the models would at least hint development, these models have no issue showing development in other basins. Weak struggling systems in the Atlantic basin is becoming the norm with a few each season that bomb out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:16 pm

I here ya blown away...ECMWF shows a bunch weak tw's being chewed up by dry sinking air. I actually can't remember the last time the ECMWF showed a cane in our basin. Ridiculous
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#14 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:I here ya blown away...ECMWF shows a bunch weak tw's being chewed up by dry sinking air. I actually can't remember the last time the ECMWF showed a cane in our basin. Ridiculous


Including the last time we had a major hurricane out here. :)

I hear you all as well, time will tell. I still don't think anything significant can form until late August'ish but perhaps we get a sloppy tropical storm out of this?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#15 Postby JaxGator » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:30 pm

SFLcane wrote:I here ya blown away...ECMWF shows a bunch weak tw's being chewed up by dry sinking air. I actually can't remember the last time the ECMWF showed a cane in our basin. Ridiculous


The models will flip flop probably until we get a closed center and it was Sandy the Euro showed being a hurricane I think.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#16 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:I actually can't remember the last time the ECMWF showed a cane in our basin. Ridiculous


This April.

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18z models for Invest 96L:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#17 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 7:58 pm

Blown Away wrote:Latest GFS & ECMWF show nothing more than a shallow TW moving across the Atlantic, on a similar track, and just off shore from SE Florida @7 days from now. We've seen this movie over and over for many years, conditions just not favorable in the MDR or the models would at least hint development, these models have no issue showing development in other basins. Weak struggling systems in the Atlantic basin is becoming the norm with a few each season that bomb out.

I know how you feel Blown Away, just last week I too was getting kind of antsy with the lack of anything in the Atlantic basin.

One thing that seems to be happening right on cue over the past week or two is the Atlantic is gradually becoming more and more favorable towards tropical development and if it continues on this same pace it has over the past week or two I would not rule out a few surprises in the coming months.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#18 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:23 pm

Majority of the time if the main global models say no, then likely not gonna happen, because those models with all the misses usually hit with significant development. Don't get lulled by the Intensity Guidance when the main globals say no, I sometimes do. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#19 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:41 am

The Euro shows exactly what it showed before this invest was declared. It follows an area of wind gusts with the occasional closes isobars up and just north of Hispaniola to near Florida.

The HWRF is a fun run. It seems to lose 96L and then develop something else near the end of the run? :lol:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#20 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:45 am

Here's the saved parent run of the HWRF, may be 96L afterall. I think this run is just for fun, doubt this will actually happen.

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