ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#21 Postby Kazmit » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:58 am

tolakram wrote:The Euro shows exactly what it showed before this invest was declared. It follows an area of wind gusts with the occasional closes isobars up and just north of Hispaniola to near Florida.

The HWRF is a fun run. It seems to lose 96L and then develop something else near the end of the run? :lol:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0


That's what I was thinking, lol. It may not develop anything until much farther down the road, when conditions might be better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#22 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:13 am

tolakram wrote:Here's the saved parent run of the HWRF, may be 96L afterall. I think this run is just for fun, doubt this will actually happen.

http://i.imgur.com/qbCyX9u.gif


It brings it down to 971 mb?
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#23 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:49 am

00Z UKMET track:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#24 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:21 am

A mix of model diagnostics:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#25 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:40 pm

12Z ECMWF showing a more defined low than 00Z run, just NE of Lesser Antilles at the end heading WNW:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#26 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:02 pm

96L needs to be watched.

12z Euro @ 240hrs. :darrow:

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#27 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:57 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#28 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:07 pm

Is this the same system the GFS/GEM have been intermittently developing and stalling in the MDR?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#29 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 28, 2016 5:20 pm

Hammy wrote:Is this the same system the GFS/GEM have been intermittently developing and stalling in the MDR?


yep, and would be good for it for the next few days but the SAL will probably keeping it from developing until the Caribbean or near the Bahamas similar to 97L

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#30 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:21 pm

Where is it headed
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#31 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:14 pm

06Z Ensemble Proability % of TC Genesis (up to 120 hours) pretty telling for the immediate future of 96L. The current development window is shrinking. Neither the 12z GFS or CMC develop this system (both track the energy of the wave into the Bahamas). Conditions may improve beyond 120 hours near the Bahamas, too soon to rule that out yet.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#32 Postby Siker » Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:58 pm

Decent reflection on the 12z Euro as it treks through the Northeast Caribbean (ends up strung out and OTS at the end).

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#33 Postby USTropics » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:37 pm

Increasing Ensemble Prob % of TC Genesis for 96L and 97L:

Image

Wind shear looks like it could stay reasonable for the next 2-3 days:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#34 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 30, 2016 11:41 pm

Cant really discount this according to the GFS as it seems to be trying to develop near the Bahamas at hr 192 as it seems to have good vorticity from 850 level to 700 level so while I think chances for development are on the low side like 10% the fact that it shows a sharp wave in the Bahamas means it still bears watching

at hr 252 develops this off the Carolina coast

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#35 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:59 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Cant really discount this according to the GFS as it seems to be trying to develop near the Bahamas at hr 192 as it seems to have good vorticity from 850 level to 700 level so while I think chances for development are on the low side like 10% the fact that it shows a sharp wave in the Bahamas means it still bears watching

at hr 252 develops this off the Carolina coast

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essentially the odds for them have switched where 97 became the more likely to develop and 96 being the underdog that everyone assumes will fizzle out. like i said with 97, if it can stay even somewhat intact until it reaches favorable conditions then its likely to do what 97 has done if not more since it is moving at a slower pace allowing more development. early back to back storms is my prediction.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#36 Postby latitude_20 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:26 am

Looks like 96L might be the real player in this game. Check out the long range model runs. I know, dreamland and all that, but the GFS really intensifies this thing as it approaches the Yucatan Basin. I'll be in the area at around that time, so will provide some on the ground coverage, photos and video if it verifies.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:27 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#38 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:28 am

I think the main story for the season (echoing here what the pros have said) will be waves making it into the Caribbean and then developing. Models might struggle to show this due to trying to develop them too early.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#39 Postby latitude_20 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:47 am

Plenty of fuel in the Caribbean, that's for sure.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#40 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:28 pm

Unbelievable....The GFS still only brings 97L barely to tropical storm strength.....? ( when it may be Dorian already ?) Then it blows 96L up to Hurricane and impacts the N Gulf Coast? Curious performance of the GFS this year. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php
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