EPAC: HOWARD - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:09 pm

Shower activity associated with a broad and elongated area of low
pressure located about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization
today. However, upper-level winds are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:31 am

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912016  07/30/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    27    30    31    34    38    40    41    39    39    38    33
V (KT) LAND       25    25    27    30    31    34    38    40    41    39    39    38    33
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    25    25    25    26    26    25    25    23    22    21    19
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     3     3     5     2     5     9     5     6     4     3     6    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -1     0     0     0     0    -4    -2    -4    -3    -3    -1    -5
SHEAR DIR         16   327   323   341   291   178   188   185   210   222   259   271   272
SST (C)         27.7  27.6  27.2  26.9  26.6  26.4  26.2  25.4  24.6  24.1  24.0  23.8  23.5
POT. INT. (KT)   141   140   136   133   130   128   126   117   109   104   102   100    97
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.3   0.3   0.2   0.2   0.0   0.0  -0.1   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     7     7     6     6     6     6     5     4     4     3     3
700-500 MB RH     73    73    73    72    69    64    60    55    53    53    55    53    52
MODEL VTX (KT)     9    10    10    11    11    11    12    11    11    10    10     9     8
850 MB ENV VOR     8    12     9    10     4     9    16     3   -12   -19   -26   -19   -24
200 MB DIV        20    39    53    53    39    56    36     0     6     1     6    -6     7
700-850 TADV      -1    -2    -3    -3    -1     0     1     2     2     2     3     6     1
LAND (KM)       1261  1288  1323  1358  1381  1459  1565  1634  1717  1842  1998  2112  1904
LAT (DEG N)     13.5 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    116.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     9    10    11    11    10    10    11    10    10    10    10    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      19    17    19    19    15    10    14    17     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/  8      CX,CY:  -6/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  591  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  11.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            3.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   7.  12.  18.  21.  24.  25.  25.  23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   8.   9.   9.   9.   9.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   0.   0.   0.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -7.  -9.  -9. -10. -10. -11. -12.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   2.   5.   6.   9.  13.  15.  16.  14.  14.  13.   8.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   13.5   116.7

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST     07/30/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36           2.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   111.1      40.3  to  144.5       0.68           3.6
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    17.8       0.0  to   75.9       0.23           1.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    18.3      38.9  to    2.1       0.56           3.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     3.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.89           5.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    40.8     -11.0  to  135.3       0.35           1.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    73.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.80           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     1.0       2.1  to   -1.7       0.29          -0.3
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  25% is   1.9 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  18% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   25.1%   18.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     2.0%    8.4%    9.3%    0.6%    0.3%    7.1%    0.2%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    5.7%    1.5%    0.5%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.7%   13.1%    9.6%    0.4%    0.1%    2.4%    0.1%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST     07/30/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#23 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:49 am

Wait weren't the models forecasting a hurricane a couple days ago?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Now at 70% / 90%...

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located
about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although the associated showers and thunderstorms remain
disorganized, environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
weekend or early next week while the low moves toward the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:59 pm

Shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered about
800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually increasing and becoming slightly better
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day
late or two while the low moves toward the west-northwest at 10 to
15 mph. After that time, conditions are expected to be less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#26 Postby talkon » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:55 am

TXPZ28 KNES 310634
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 31/0600Z

C. 14.1N

D. 119.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION. 0502Z MHS DATA
SUGGESTED CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE. .3 BANDING YIELDS A
DT=1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES
NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#27 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:55 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a low pressure system located about
900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Monday
while the low moves toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#28 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:22 am

:uarrow: But ASCAT showed circulation is elongated and weak at the surface.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:55 am

Looks ready:

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:05 am

Code: Select all

  31/1200 UTC   14.2N    119.7W       T2.0/2.0         91E -- East Pacific 
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:06 am

Odd since ECMWF peaks this in 3 days and brings this over Hawaii in a week.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912016  07/31/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    34    37    40    43    43    45    40    39    36    33
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    34    37    40    43    43    45    40    39    36    33
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    26    27    28    28    28    27    25    24    22    21    20
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     7     4     1     2     3     5     5     8     9     9    10    17
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -1    -1     0    -2     1    -4    -2    -6    -4    -5    -2    -3
SHEAR DIR        339   324   324   312   234   282   244   222   207   229   241   258   267
SST (C)         27.1  26.8  26.6  26.5  26.5  25.9  24.8  24.1  23.6  23.3  23.4  24.2  24.8
POT. INT. (KT)   134   131   130   129   129   124   112   105   100    96    97   105   111
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.4   0.3   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.4
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     6     5     4     3     3     3     4
700-500 MB RH     71    69    67    65    64    59    56    53    53    49    47    42    40
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    12    12    13    14    13    13    12    13    10    10     8     8
850 MB ENV VOR     4     1    -2     0    -1   -16   -17   -21   -17   -12   -10   -12   -14
200 MB DIV        56    40    44    47    36     3     9   -11    10    -7     7    16   -25
700-850 TADV      -4    -4    -5    -4    -1    -1     0     1     1    -1     0     2    -2
LAND (KM)       1406  1409  1420  1459  1506  1612  1706  1862  2051  1936  1686  1429  1184
LAT (DEG N)     14.3 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9    10    10    11    13    14    14    13    13    12    12    11
HEAT CONTENT      17    14    11     9     9    16     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/  7      CX,CY:  -5/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  550  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           10.9

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   7.  12.  16.  19.  22.  23.  23.  21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.   8.   7.   6.   6.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   0.   1.  -3.  -3.  -5.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.   9.  12.  15.  18.  18.  20.  15.  14.  11.   8.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   14.3   119.8

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST     07/31/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36           2.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   105.6      40.3  to  144.5       0.63           3.3
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    12.0       0.0  to   75.9       0.16           1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    10.3      38.9  to    2.1       0.78           4.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     4.7      18.9  to    1.4       0.81           4.6
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    44.6     -11.0  to  135.3       0.38           1.1
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    99.4     638.0  to  -68.2       0.76           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.5       2.1  to   -1.7       0.42          -0.5
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     4.4      81.4  to    0.0       0.95           0.6
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   2.1 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  18% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   26.9%   18.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     7.6%   32.4%   20.1%   13.6%    7.7%   12.6%   10.1%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    2.3%    0.5%    0.2%    0.0%    0.3%    0.1%
   Consensus:     2.6%   20.5%   12.9%    4.6%    2.6%    4.3%    3.4%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST     07/31/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#32 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:08 am

91E sure has taken its time. But looks to be getting itself together now
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#33 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:19 am

Looks like it's LLC is still elongated and just to the north of the deep convection.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:21 am

:uarrow: Just not sure there's a closed center yet. Which I suppose if why the NHC hasn't classified.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#35 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:23 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Just not sure there's a closed center yet. Which I suppose if why the NHC hasn't classified.


As long as it gets classified by tonight so we can break the July record for most named storms.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#36 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:24 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Just not sure there's a closed center yet. Which I suppose if why the NHC hasn't classified.


Yeah, true. It is closed per the ASCAT last night, but may still be elongated and broad.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#37 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:25 am

CaliforniaResident wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Just not sure there's a closed center yet. Which I suppose if why the NHC hasn't classified.


As long as it gets classified by tonight so we can break the July record for most named storms.


If it gets classified tonight it will be to a TD not a TS, so no record. IMO.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:30 am

NDG wrote:
CaliforniaResident wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Just not sure there's a closed center yet. Which I suppose if why the NHC hasn't classified.


As long as it gets classified by tonight so we can break the July record for most named storms.


If it gets classified tonight it will be to a TD not a TS, so no record. IMO.


Unless of course it becomes a TD by 2 PM and a TS by the next advisory at 8 PM. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:24 am

Special Advisory:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF JULY FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 930 AM PDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 120.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM PDT (1630 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 120.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

The first visible satellite images this morning indicate that a
well-defined center has formed in association with the area of low
pressure located well southwest of Mexico. This, along with the
increase in convective organization, supports classifying this
system as a tropical cyclone. A 1401Z SSMIS overpass indicated that
the low-level center was located beneath the convective canopy, and
the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone is currently situated over waters of 27-28C and the
shear is expected to remain relatively low, so gradual strengthening
is forecast through the first 48 hours. Later in the period, the
cyclone will move over cooler waters and into a drier and more
stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in gradual
weakening to remnant low status. The NHC intensity prediction is a
little above the latest intensity consensus, but not as high as the
HWRF and COAMPS-TC models. During the weakening phase, the NHC
forecast is below the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/08.
However, the track forecast reasoning appears relatively
straightforward, as a mid-level ridge is expected to build westward
to the north of the cyclone through the forecast period. This
should result in a west-northwestward heading, with a bit of a
westward bend in the track at days 4 and 5 as the shallow cyclone
comes under the influence of the low-level trade winds. The NHC
track forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope near
the multi-model consensus.

This marks the formation of the eighth tropical cyclone in the basin
in July, tying the record set in July of 1985.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1630Z 14.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.9N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 15.7N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1200Z 22.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#40 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:28 pm

Oh wow

I was shocked when I checked the page, only to see 91E upgraded and a special advisory issued.
:lol:

Can this make it to TS strength before tomorrow? Let's wait and see! :ggreen: :ggreen:

The drums will now begin to roll..... 8-) 8-)
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