EPAC: HOWARD - Post-Tropical

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TheStormExpert
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:42 pm

Seems the NHC just wants the East Pacific to break the July tropical cyclone record. Just earlier this morning it's circulation was stretched and elongated. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:50 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Seems the NHC just wants the East Pacific to break the July tropical cyclone record. Just earlier this morning it's circulation was stretched and elongated. :lol:


And now is naked!!!! lol.
But is more defined than earlier ASCAT.


Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:07 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
NDG wrote:
CaliforniaResident wrote:
As long as it gets classified by tonight so we can break the July record for most named storms.


If it gets classified tonight it will be to a TD not a TS, so no record. IMO.


Unless of course it becomes a TD by 2 PM and a TS by the next advisory at 8 PM. :lol:


Records are determined by UTC time, not local time.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#44 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:54 pm

Darby dropped 19 inches of rain on Oahu, and as this was my first time every experiencing a tropical storm I found out that this much water is no joke.

I'm lucky my house didn't get flooded as a few houses in our neighborhood did and they lost everything. Gonna buy sand bags if this thing gets anywhere close to Oahu.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#45 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:46 pm

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 312036
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

Visible satellite imagery showed a low-level cloud swirl emerge
from the convective canopy after the previous advisory was issued.
However, for now it appears that this was not the primary center of
the cyclone, as it has dissipated and low cloud lines continue to
suggest a center closer to the convection. Given the somewhat
disorganized nature of the system for now, the initial intensity is
held at 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from
SAB.

The SHIPS model analysis shows about 10 kt of north-northwesterly
shear over the depression, which is consistent with the convection
being displaced mainly to the south and east of the center. This
shear is expected to relax a little, but the cyclone will only be
over SSTs above 26C for the next 36 hours or so. This should allow
for some strengthening, followed by gradual weakening to post-
tropical status over cool waters and in a dry, stable atmospheric
environment in about 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, and close to the IVCN consensus aid.

The uncertainty in the center position leads to an uncertain
initial motion estimate of 295/09, which is based in part on
continuity. Despite this, the track forecast reasoning remains
relatively straightforward, as a mid-level ridge is expected to
build westward to the north of the cyclone through the forecast
period. This should result in a west-northwestward heading and
an increase in forward speed over the next 48 hours. After that
time, the track should gradually bend back toward the west as the
increasingly shallow cyclone comes under the influence of the
low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is about 40 n mi
north of the previous one due to the adjustment in the initial
position, but is otherwise near the middle of the guidance envelope
and the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 15.4N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.9N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 17.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.1N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 22.4N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 23.0N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#46 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:48 pm

Has till next advisory to break the record I'm assuming.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#47 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:08 pm

Image

Looks like the new LLC is beginning to tuck under the main area of convection. Also banding has increased to the N and NW of the system. Sign that shear is relaxing.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:09 pm

Appears worthy of a T2.5.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#49 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:20 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 JUL 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 15:32:47 N Lon : 121:35:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1006.3mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5


Center Temp : -36.1C Cloud Region Temp : -45.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 15:32:23 N Lon: 121:59:23 W
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#50 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:43 pm

SAB is @ 2.5.

Assuming nothing drastic happens, looks like we have a record.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:SAB is @ 2.5.

Assuming nothing drastic happens, looks like we have a record.


ATCF has 30 knots.

And records are determined by UTC time, not local time.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:46 pm

No record broken.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much since the
previous advisory. Geostationary satellite and microwave images
indicate that most of the deep convection is confined to the
southern portion of the circulation with some thin and fragmented
bands to the north of the center. The Dvorak T-number from TAFB was
lowered slightly from that of the previous classification. Given the
lack of increased organization, the initial intensity is again held
at 30 kt.

Some strengthening seems likely during the next day or so while the
depression remains over relatively warm water and in conducive
atmospheric conditions. The strengthening trend should be
relatively short lived though since the cyclone is forecast to move
over cool waters and into a more stable environment in about 36
hours, which should induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and is similar to the SHIPS
guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving toward the
west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 10 kt. A slightly faster
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as a
mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone strengthens. A turn
to the west is predicted by the end of the period when the shallow
cyclone is steered by the low-level trade winds. The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.8N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 16.5N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.9N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.9N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 22.8N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 23.2N 147.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#53 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:50 pm

I disagree with that intensity forecast :uarrow: .

Should become a potent TS before it gets to far north and weakens.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#54 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:31 pm

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
Monday 01aug16 Time: 0139 UTC
Latitude: 15.71 Longitude: -121.72
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 12 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 998 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 46 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.70
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.61
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.12
RMW: 74 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1009 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 08 Day: 01 Time (UTC): 0000


Image

Windsat has high bias but it's showing 60kt barbs. I'd say 45kts is a fair intensity.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#55 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:33 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#56 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:46 pm

WindSat simply isn't reliable but regardless, this appears to be organizing steadily.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#57 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:26 am

We have Howard.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#58 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:55 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 AUG 2016 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 16:05:36 N Lon : 122:36:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.8mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.1

Center Temp : -24.0C Cloud Region Temp : -59.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#59 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:36 am

Just hours short of making the record...

:( :( :(
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#60 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:46 am

Ahh Howard... coming in very late.. :lol: Though there could be just one place in the world where it was still July and Howard got named. :lol:

Although still impressive that it's able to organize, given that the favorable conditions have already shifted to the Atlantic..
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