ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#61 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:18 am

Seems the models have become less trustworthy than ever this year. All the more likely we won't see any storms until the third week of August.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#62 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:05 am

2AM NOAA NHC update
not too much change of the percentage of development except that 97L is given a further cone that takes it either into southern GOM or over the Yucatan depending on conditions
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#63 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:11 am

Euro shows barely even a wrinkle in the trade winds as it goes through the islands, the trend seems to have heavily shifted against development among all the models now, which is no surprise given the increasing shear and the fact that it's getting stretched out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#64 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:10 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving rapidly westward. Given the fast motion of the
system, development, if any, will be slow to occur. However, this
system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the
Leeward Islands during the weekend, and then, the activity should
spread westward across the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#65 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:12 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

A tropical wave is moving over the central Tropical Atlantic with
axis from 19N42W to 11N42W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. The tropical wave appears to have a high amplitude
in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere based on GOES high
density winds with copious deep layer moisture in SSMI Total
Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer data also
indicates associated surface troughing with an area of fresh
trades on the northern portion of the surface trough from 19N to
15N between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted with this tropical wave along the axis from 15N to 13N
between 40W and 43W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#66 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:20 am

National Hurricane Center Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic For Development

Tom Moore
Published: July 29, 2016

:rarrow: https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropi ... son-invest

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to watch a pair of disturbances over the Atlantic Ocean that have some potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next few days.

Both areas of interest are tropical waves – a batch of energy and general spin in the atmosphere that develops due to temperature contrasts on either side of Africa's Sahel region – that are moving west across the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The first tropical wave - designated Invest 96-L - was located just west of Africa, or several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo Verde. This naming convention is used by the NHC to identify features that are being monitored for potential future development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

As of Friday morning, the NHC indicated that Invest 96-L had a medium (40 percent) chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next five days. The disturbance exhibited a nice pulse of convection overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, but was headed into a fresh surge of dry air moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A second tropical wave - designated Invest 97-L - was located more than 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

This separate tropical wave has been given a low (30 percent) chance to develop during the next five days. The NHC said that this system's fast movement was a negative to development. The aforementioned dry air in the region also may be playing a role in keeping convection rather disorganized.

Regardless of development, showers and some gusty winds should spread into the Leeward Islands this weekend, as occurs with most all tropical waves moving through.

These are the first tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean to have a chance to develop this season, which is why they have our attention. However, they both have a long way to go, and there's plenty of time to monitor the disturbances as they track west, so there's no need to have any major concerns at the moment.

Technically, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Much of the tropical activity occurs between the second week of August and the second week of October. In late July and early August, we begin to keep an eye on the eastern Atlantic as it begins to show signs of life.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#67 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 6:52 am

A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at about 25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. However, this system
will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward
Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#68 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:24 am

After yesterday's 12z models' runs for a few hours yesterday I had forgotten how aggressive the Euro has been at times over the EPAC, so I guess it had carried,its aggressiveness to the Atlantic side on its 12z run.
Its 0z run is a reality check.

Is hard for a tropical wave moving at 25-30 mph to develop a closed circulation, especially once it enters the eastern Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#69 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:31 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291154 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...AMENDED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

A tropical wave is moving over the central Tropical Atlantic with
axis from 19N42W to 11N42W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. The tropical wave appears to have a high amplitude
in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere based on GOES high
density winds with copious deep layer moisture in SSMI Total
Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery.
Recent scatterometer data also
indicates associated surface troughing with an area of fresh
trades on the northern portion of the surface trough from 19N to
15N between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted with this tropical wave along the axis from 15N to 13N
between 40W and 43W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#70 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:40 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#71 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 29, 2016 10:18 am

Jeff Master's new blog post this morning:

Twin Invests 96L and 97L Worth Watching in the Atlantic
By: Jeff Masters , 2:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2016
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... e-atlantic

There's a new threat area to discuss today in the Atlantic: a tropical wave midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands that is headed west to west-northwest at 25 mph. This disturbance was designated Invest 97L on Thursday afternoon by NHC, and should arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by late Saturday night. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the storm on Sunday, if needed. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed 97L had a modest area of heavy thunderstorms which were poorly organized, though there was some increasing spin evident in the cloud pattern. Wind shear was a light 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was an adequate-for-developement 27°C (81°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that 97L had a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding it, which was slowing development.

Image
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L in the middle Atlantic.

Forecast for 97L
Steering currents favor very rapid west to west-northwesterly motion at about 25 mph for 97L though Monday, and storms that move this fast typically have trouble getting organized. This motion should take the disturbance through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday morning, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday afternoon, and into the Dominican Republic by Sunday night. All of these areas should expect to see heavy rains of 2 - 4" and wind gusts of 30 - 35 mph as 97L passes, and the NWS may end up issuing a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model shows somewhat favorable conditions for development through Saturday night, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81 - 82°F.) However, an unfavorable factor for development will be large-scale sinking motion over the tropical Atlantic over the next few days imparted by the passage of what is called a Kelvin Wave (see the tweet by The Weather Company's Mike Ventrice on this.) On Sunday through Monday, 97L is predicted to encounter high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, which would thwart development. At that time, the system may be undergoing interaction with the rough topography of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, will would also inhibit development. By Tuesday, 97L should be traversing Cuba, and will slow down to a forward speed of about 10 - 15 mph, taking it into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Wednesday and into the Gulf of Mexico around Thursday.

The Friday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, did not show 97L developing much. The 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European model ensemble forecasts, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had fewer than 10% of their ensemble members predict that 97L would become a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. When 97L reaches the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, we will need to watch it, but the crystal ball is very murky on whether or not 97L might find favorable conditions for development then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#72 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:38 am

12z GFS as if it is trending in wanting 97L to get better organized starting over the GOH by the middle of next week into the BOC.

Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#73 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:45 am

Yep saw that GFS run, the BOC has been the hotbed for systems the past several years.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#74 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:59 am

:uarrow: Would fall in line with the Western Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico being the hotspots this season.

Let's see what the 12z Euro has to say.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#75 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:00 pm

CMC run pretty similar to the GFS run (minus the BOC development). Wave axis (highlighted in red) runs into Central America and never develops (most of the vorticity looks to be extended into the Pacific actually at the end of the run):

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#76 Postby Siker » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:22 pm

Much higher support from the 12z GEFS compared to the last few runs:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#77 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:30 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#78 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:35 pm

Looks like the stronger this gets the further north in the Gulf of Mexico it will go.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#79 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:42 pm

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#80 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:03 pm

12z Euro goes back to a little more organized strong tropical wave as it tracks through the Leeward Islands.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Fri Jul 29, 2016 1:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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