ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

To Wxman57's point, looks like the best chance of development according to the models is once it is the BOC/SW Gulf. In fact if you click this link to look at what are the global models are doing by hour 168, you will see there is pretty good agreement on this solution:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Kazmit]

while both are important to watch. i wouldnt discount this one just yet. all the odds are against it, and everyone is looking more at 96 given its higher chances. this could be the type of storm that gets diminished down to a TW over the islands and ends up being the zombie storm and comes back from what most will think as dead once it hits that nice bathtub temp water in the GOM. 97L is the underdog. the record GOM Hurricane drought is ending soon. the coast from yucatan to AL should definitely be watching this one so that a katrina type situation of everyone rushing to evac at last minute wont happen.

Definitely. Development, if any, will occur in the western caribbean or more likely, the GOM. Temperatures exceed 85 degrees in most of the GOM, and if shear is minimal, this could explode. While not a concern for now, it could become one a week from now...

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see a trend develop as the ECMWF EPS suggest more hospitable conditions in the NW Caribbean and the Western Gulf.

[PTrackerLA]

Ensembles are getting more enthusiastic about 97L... Just counted roughly 15 of the 50 EPS members showing significant development in the GOM by day 8.

[xcool22]

Ensembles are getting more enthusiastic about 97L... Just counted roughly 15 of the 50 EPS members showing significant development in the GOM by day 8.

IMAGE ?

[JaxGator]

Data from buoys near or over 97L:
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 6.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (52°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and steady
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.0 F

Location: 14.825N 51.016W
Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2016 19:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 17.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F

[Siker]

18z GFS coming in stronger; already a TC at 96 hours.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert has been activated for Guadeloupe due to a risk of strong shower and tstorms.
Regards.
Gustywind.

[NDG]

GFS keeps trending towards development over the GOH.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/759151418930401281

[Siker]

Also, the UKMET:

[Siker]

Mexico landfall, ~990mb:

[stormlover2013]

Seems like the models are on to something, I guess we will be busy for the next couple of days storm watching

[RL3AO]

Found this little vortex moving north from the ITCZ kinda interesting. If it can get ingested, you never know if that could be a little extra nudge to develop some deep convection tonight.

[Hammy]

GEM still has nothing but a weak low in the BoC but seems to be the only one showing no development at the moment.

[Siker]

Oh good, the HWRF managed to actually find the vortex this run.

FWIW, 42 hours from now:

[stormlover2013]

Do you have anymore of the hwrf??

[Siker]

GEFS support continues:

[Siker]

Do you have anymore of the hwrf??

Out to 60 hours:

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is moving westward at 20-25 mph. Associated shower activity is
poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any
development should be slow to occur. Regardless of development,
this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of
the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern
Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next week, the
wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could become more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent