ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1461 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

Earl has continued to spin down as it moves farther inland over
Guatemala. The coverage of cold convective tops has decreased and
is limited to an area southeast of the center and a rain band about
140 n mi northeast of the center. Assuming a steady weakening, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Earl is forecast to
weaken to a tropical depression tonight and then could become a
remnant low at any time in the next couple of days if the deep
convection dissipates. The low-level circulation of Earl or its
remnants should dissipate by 72 hours over the high terrain of
central Mexico.

The initial motion estimate is now a bit north of due west, 280/09.
The weakening tropical cyclone should continue moving westward to
west-northwestward for the next couple of days to the south of a
mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico and southern United
States. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one,
and shows the center moving near the coast of the extreme southern
Bay of Campeche in about 24 hours before moving back inland. This
track is close to the latest multi-model consensus.

Earl is expected to produce very heavy rains over a large portion of
Central America and southeastern Mexico. In addition, global models
continue to show a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern
Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely
lead to torrential rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18
inches possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.6N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0600Z 17.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 18.3N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 06/0600Z 18.6N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1462 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:The EC and UKMET have this redeveloping in the EPAC and hitting the southern tip of Baja. Fortunately both are not modeling a strong system into Baja

not too sure how strong they say it will be but, my area in southern california is expected next week to have a surge of tropical moisture in the atmosphere. with la nina temps not panning out too well im excited that i might get atleast some form of remenant from this guy. last year i saw rain in june from Dolores and in july with Linda.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1463 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:The EC and UKMET have this redeveloping in the EPAC and hitting the southern tip of Baja. Fortunately both are not modeling a strong system into Baja


It has this merging with the EPAC 10/70 and the combined system hits Baja.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1464 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:31 pm

The satellite loop gives the appearance of it moving more to the north than towards the Pacific? :flag: It looks like it will be over water in a few hours has it's forward speed increased? It's well east of the 1pm Friday NHC plot?
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1465 Postby BZSTORM » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:19 pm

Ok checking back in we finally got elec power back on and seems sable at least in my area. I have lived here since 1998 just in time for my first Hurricane experience Hurricane Mitch and never had a North landfall Hurricane or TS that punched us so bad in the South. barely got any sleep last night what with branches flying into roof and at 2am - 4am gust so strong they shook my house which is wood on stilts. Have since found out just down the road less than mile a sail boat harbored in lagoonside marina say they registered gusts at 85kts SW in the early hours of the morning. I had wrongly figured we would get the usual max gusts of 40kts that we have had in the past, lesson learned, at 5.30am we were already taking stock of what damage had occurred on the property I live on, not too bad a few trees down, loads of leaves on ground and branches. tree debris and large benches in road which were cleared pretty easily. At the point of Placencia the damage was more dramatic one of the oldest dive stops on end of pier with mangroves beside it is not a piles of planks washed on shore. The new multi million dollar pier which was supposed to be storm proof lost one whole side deck and another has bunch of boards loose, another resort had their newly refurbished piers deck torn off so just posts left. Have no idea how much rain came down, Bz Mets climate change dept has weather station at the airstrip but as far as I know they still haven't got remote data collection on it. What I can say is that even skiffs with additional bilge pumps on them were overwhelmed and this morning additional pumps were needed to bail out allot of boats that were on verge of sinking.
Elsewhere in the country San Pedro is in pretty bad shape with a large number of businesses washed away or severely damaged mostly in the southern half of the caye, the winds I am told were all from the sea front side and they have reef which helped allot in reducing the size surge they got. Caye Caulker which is smaller caye sustained same kind of damage as did San Pedro. Belize city has some serious flooding issues in various areas of the city, houses lost roofs, some collapsed entirely a number of emergency evacuations were required, a call recently went out for general public to turn out to help start do clean up there is allot of debris trees, zinc roofing etc lying around, allot of power cables are down as well. Belmopan had no flooding but allot more roof damages than they had anticipated. Spanish Lookout the Mennonite community reported to have 5 chicken barns have been severely damaged. One or two houses have some sustained some minor structure or roof damage. Lots of broken trees and brush on the roads. Iguana Creek Bridge is flooded and river is quickly rising. San Ignacio started experiencing rivers rising fast early this morning which are now in full flood. Crops have been damaged but NEMO is still accessing damage while conducting search and rescue. So far NO LOSE OF LIFE REPORTED. Belizean's are already bouncing back - property can always be replaced lives cannot, the forecast tracks shift to the South no doubt saved lives because people were prepared for landfall near Dangriga, so both North and South were better prepared, NEMO had issued warning to prepare days in advance as well. The wind field was so big trees were knocked down all the way to Punta Gorda. I guess we also got complacent before with last few years of TS storms and hurricane having smaller eye walls.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1466 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:28 pm

lrak wrote:The satellite loop gives the appearance of it moving more to the north than towards the Pacific? :flag: It looks like it will be over water in a few hours has it's forward speed increased? It's well east of the 1pm Friday NHC plot?

I have noticed this. The more north it goes, the more time it has in the Bay of Campeche, and the more it can strengthen.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1467 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:34 pm

Thanks for the update BZSTORM. Those storms that are intensifying at landfall can pack quite a punch, hopefully everything goes well for you and your neighbors in the cleanup!
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1468 Postby BigA » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:59 pm

Kazmit_ wrote:
lrak wrote:The satellite loop gives the appearance of it moving more to the north than towards the Pacific? :flag: It looks like it will be over water in a few hours has it's forward speed increased? It's well east of the 1pm Friday NHC plot?

I have noticed this. The more north it goes, the more time it has in the Bay of Campeche, and the more it can strengthen.


I've tentatively noticed the same thing. It looks to be moving a bit to the right of the forecast points. Could allow it to get back over the Bay of Campeche, at least for a short time.

There's also been some cloud top cooling in the previous few hours, with diurnally-driven convection over the Yucatan likely contributing.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1469 Postby TheAustinMan » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:06 pm

The observations out of Ciudad del Carmen along the Campeche coast are going to be interesting to follow as Earl tracks west. Currently winds are at 35mph sustained, with gusts to 47mph - aided probably by a developing rainband that has recently fired up over there - with the pressure at 1003mb.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1470 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:21 pm

If it does cross the eastern line the NHC predicted then the more winds for the Gulf, which translates to more swells and hopefully inland ASAP after that :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1471 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:21 pm

Based on the data and reports I have seen, it is tough to analyze the landfall intensity, although the pressure was likely around 976mb. There is no surface data or Recon to suggest higher than 70 kt, but the eyewitness reports suggest higher. Most likely Morgerman caught the strongest part of the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1472 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:27 pm

Movement seems to be NW as per Sabancuy radar, in a manner that would take it offshore in about 4-8 hours. Inner core appears to remain fairly well intact as well.

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1473 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:36 pm

Yes the inner core structure looks quite good, not too far away from the BOC.

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1474 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:55 pm

BOC is well known as a notorious area for quick spin-ups.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1475 Postby JaxGator » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:59 pm

Karl (2010) is a good example of a BOC quick spin up but it emerged further north.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1476 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:05 pm

BZSTORM wrote:Ok checking back in we finally got elec power back on and seems sable at least in my area. I have lived here since 1998 just in time for my first Hurricane experience Hurricane Mitch and never had a North landfall Hurricane or TS that punched us so bad in the South. barely got any sleep last night what with branches flying into roof and at 2am - 4am gust so strong they shook my house which is wood on stilts. Have since found out just down the road less than mile a sail boat harbored in lagoonside marina say they registered gusts at 85kts SW in the early hours of the morning.


Good to hear that you are OK and no loss of life ;) and the cloud signature says this guy is going NW/NNW?
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1477 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

Somewhat surprisingly, Earl has maintained tropical storm intensity
this evening. Observations from Ciudad del Carmen indicated a wind
gust to 46 kt at 2348 UTC during heavy squalls, and the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt. Since the forecast track takes the
center along the Bay of Campeche coast or just offshore during the
next 24 hours, this could allow the cyclone to at least maintain
its strength on Friday. Based on the new official intensity
forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern
Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. In 36 hours or so, the center of
Earl should move inland for good over south-central Mexico, and the
system is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours.

Earl jogged to the west-northwest over the past several hours and
the initial motion is estimated to be 285/9 kt. A large mid-level
ridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should induce a
continued west-northwestward to westward motion through the
forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the most
recent multi-model consensus.

The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
over the area enhances the rainfall potential.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.4N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 18.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1478 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:03 pm

The BOC will provide some fuel for Earl... Mexico will need to watch out for additional strengthening before it's second landfall.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#1479 Postby stormwise » Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:43 am

Image

latest :darrow:
Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1480 Postby abajan » Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:42 am

Image

Is this part of Earl or is it a separate system that's forming? The convection really flared up overnight but it has since waned a bit.

The latest TWO gives a 20% chance of cyclogenesis in the NE GOM:

Image

Is there any connection between them?
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