ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1521 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:31 pm

Earl is really taking shape once more.

One is only left to imagine what would have happened if this had more time over water, both in the Caribbean Sea before it made its first landfall and in the Bay of Campeche.
:eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1522 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:43 pm

AnnularCane,it happens but all is fixed. :)
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1523 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:49 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
700 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

...EARL APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF ALVARADO MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Dos Bocas westward to Tecolutla, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 95.6 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, Earl will move inland into the Mexican state of
Veracruz within the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall.
After landfall occurs, rapid weakening of Earl's peak winds is
expected.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the
warning area this evening and early Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco, and Veracruz through Saturday morning with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could
result in life- threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1524 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:29 pm

making landfall very near Veracruz. Probably at least as bad as Fernand was 3 years ago

One other thing, this could spread flooding into heavily populated Puebla de Zaragoza and Mexico City
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1525 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

The convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both
conventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last
reconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial
intensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl
should begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and
continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could
degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little
faster than currently forecast, which would cause greater
interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico.

Earl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is
expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and
Alvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of
the consensus model, TVCN.

The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that
could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of
Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals
of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning
across portions of south-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 19.0N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR VERACRUZ
12H 06/1200Z 19.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1526 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:15 am

This is still the most interesting storm since Alex so far this season
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1527 Postby shah83 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:25 am

I'm quite surprised we haven't had reports about flooding in Mexico, yet.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1528 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:41 am

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

The center of Earl made landfall near 0200 UTC just south of
Veracruz, Mexico. Since then, the center has moved farther inland
and the cloud pattern has decayed. There is little data near the
center at this time, so it is estimated that the intensity has
decreased to 35 kt. Continued rapid weakening is expected, and the
low-level circulation of Earl should dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico after 12 hours. The remnants of Earl are expected to move
westward and interact with an area of disturbed weather along the
Pacific coast of Mexico, which could lead to the formation of a
tropical cyclone in that area in 2-3 days time.

The initial motion is 275/9, and a general westward motion is
forecast until the cyclone dissipates.

The main threat from Earl and its remnants will continue to be heavy
rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large
portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The rain
threat will continue after the cyclone dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 19.0N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 19.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1529 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Aug 06, 2016 6:35 am

Earl is really dissipating now with nothing to really look at on IR. It was an interesting storm to track, but now it's time to say goodbye.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gw7gNf_9njs
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1530 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2016 6:37 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
700 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

...EARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 97.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...145 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Earl was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 97.5 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Earl moves
into the mountains of Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to
dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to
12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions of
the Mexican states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala
and Veracruz through tonight. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1531 Postby stormwise » Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:49 am

Image
Very cold tops, has been listed as EPAC: INVEST 93E looks Earl MEH.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL052016
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Re: ATL: EARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1532 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:16 am

Wow! In that image of 93E I actually see what looks like a human eye in the middle of those monster cloud tops. :eek:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#1533 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:37 am

REMNANTS OF EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016

The circulation of Earl has become disrupted by the high terrain of
Mexico, and since the cyclone no longer has a well-defined surface
circulation, it is declared dissipated.

The remnants, however, should continue to move westward and interact
with an area of disturbed weather along the Pacific coast of Mexico,
which could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone in that area
in about 2 to 3 days.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Earl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 19.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1534 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 06, 2016 11:56 am

Look at this convection, wow is all I have to say: :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1535 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Aug 07, 2016 12:05 am

possibly a bit late in the day to post this but I only just saw it shared on facebook today This animation for NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery shows the movement and strengthening of Earl from August 2 to August 4 through the Caribbean Sea to landfall in Belize.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvNK_WnduVM
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Re: ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1536 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 07, 2016 12:10 am

6 dead in the Veracruz area due to landslides
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Re: ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1537 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:48 pm

I guess if you're not done tracking Earl you can track Earl 2.0- Javier :wink:
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Re: ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1538 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:14 pm

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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1539 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:26 pm

storms hitting the west coast of the BOC are notorious for their large number of deaths.

Probably a good thing that Earl only got over the extreme southern BOC. Had it developed a solid inner core, the rainfall likely would have been even greater, leading to even worse flooding
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Re: ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#1540 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:14 am

Earl was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy :( . I think he has a chance of being retired.
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