ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#21 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:56 pm

Here is a zoomed in forecast of the Euro from wunderground site.
It shows 97L striking P.R. as a small tropical storm Sunday evening.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#22 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:58 pm

:uarrow: Is that in mph or kt's?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#23 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:58 pm

Looking at the hi-res weatherbell Euro plots, you can track vorticity and the PWAT surge all the way into the gulf and into the northern Gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#24 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:58 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#25 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Is that in mph or kt's?


Knots! So it could be a medium strength tropical storm if the euro is correct.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#26 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:05 pm

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Is that in mph or kt's?


Knots! So it could be a medium strength tropical storm if the euro is correct.

Thanks! 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#27 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:39 pm

Land interaction is going to be big. 200 miles may be the difference between pulling an Erika and staying in a fairly decent environment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#28 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:01 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:This steering pattern seems eerily similar to last season with a stronger Bermuda High just minus the Caribbean Shear.
:double:

The similar steering pattern might be influenced by the fact that this is the transition year from el nino to la nina just without the strong shear from the el nino trade winds. The extremely active epac season so far seems to make it seem like the west coast is still under el nino conditions especially in my area in southern california where the water temp is usually cold and it still feels like tepid tap water
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#29 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:02 pm

Note that to reach Puerto Rico by Sunday (per GFS/Euro), the disturbance would have to travel at over 30 mph. Either it will arrive later or it will have a very hard time organizing.
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#30 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:03 pm

Will have to wait and see the chances of development, which go up in my opinion past 5 days if the system does not have major entanglement with Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#31 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:10 pm

12z Ensemble Prob % of Tropical genesis rises just east of the Leewards:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:23 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#33 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:25 pm

some T-storms building around center as Eric Blake points out, saved loop:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#34 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:25 pm

I just think 97L in time will really have to slow down some really have a better chance to try to develop. Apparently ridging may get too strong which may steer 97L more southwest in time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#35 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:Note that to reach Puerto Rico by Tuesday morning (per GFS/Euro), the disturbance would have to travel at over 30 mph. Either it will arrive later or it will have a very hard time organizing.


Actually the Euro has 97L arriving P.R. by Sunday evening not Tuesday morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:30 pm

Shear is low, but that's because deep-layer flow is 20-30 kt!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#37 Postby Siker » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:35 pm

~8/51 EPS members have a GEFS/CMC-esque solution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#38 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:55 pm

18Z Guidance:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#39 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:00 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#40 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:08 pm

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Note that to reach Puerto Rico by Tuesday morning (per GFS/Euro), the disturbance would have to travel at over 30 mph. Either it will arrive later or it will have a very hard time organizing.


Actually the Euro has 97L arriving P.R. by Sunday evening not Tuesday morning.


Yeah, I meant Sunday. Looking at where the models (EC/GFS) initialized it, they have it way too far west to start out. They have the center at 35W in a few hours, when it's near 30W now. That won't happen. The models are probably moving it too fast. If it moves slower, the steering flow downstream may be different, perhaps allowing it to turn northward farther east.
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