EPAC: IVETTE - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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EPAC: IVETTE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:08 am

EP, 92, 2016073112, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1032W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2016073118, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1049W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2016080100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1062W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2016080106, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1076W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2016080112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1090W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:40 am

Track looks too far north.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP922016  08/01/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    25    28    33    37    42    47    48    49    48    48
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    25    28    33    37    42    47    48    49    48    48
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    20    21    21    23    25    27    28    30    31    32    32
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    15    15    13    11    13    15    11     8     8     6     9     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -3    -3    -3    -2    -1     0    -5    -3    -5    -4    -4    -3
SHEAR DIR         21    27    31    24    20     4   354   347   324   313   308   302   279
SST (C)         28.4  28.4  28.3  28.1  28.1  28.5  28.4  28.8  28.5  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.1
POT. INT. (KT)   150   150   149   147   147   152   151   154   151   149   149   149   146
200 MB T (C)   -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     7     7     8     7     7     6     5     4
700-500 MB RH     76    75    75    73    74    73    74    68    72    69    69    64    62
MODEL VTX (KT)     0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    25    23    15     0   -10   -28   -46   -58   -57   -46   -34   -32   -39
200 MB DIV        49    41    47    39    26    54    50    45    34    40    17     6     6
700-850 TADV      -2    -2     0     1     1    -5    -1     0     0    -4    -4    -3    -1
LAND (KM)       1105  1167  1233  1313  1407  1515  1696  1852  2027  2178  2323  2192  1931
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.3  10.5  10.8  11.1  11.6  12.0  12.6  13.2  13.9  14.4  15.3  16.1
LONG(DEG W)    109.0 110.5 111.9 113.4 114.9 118.0 121.2 124.3 127.2 129.8 132.2 134.6 136.9
STM SPEED (KT)    14    14    14    15    15    16    16    14    14    12    12    12    11
HEAT CONTENT      20    19    20    19    20    19    24    28    21    25    32    28    26

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  607  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  18.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            1.3

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   7.  14.  22.  28.  32.  34.  35.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -6.  -8.  -8.  -9.  -9. -10. -11.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   5.   8.  13.  17.  22.  27.  28.  29.  28.  28.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   10.0   109.0

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST     08/01/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   128.8      40.3  to  144.5       0.85         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    19.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.26         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    17.8      38.9  to    2.1       0.57         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    13.2      18.9  to    1.4       0.32         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    40.4     -11.0  to  135.3       0.35         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    45.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.84         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.5       2.1  to   -1.7       0.42         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%    6.2%    1.8%    0.3%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST     08/01/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby CaliforniaResident » Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:28 pm

Is there any chance this one could give us some remnant moisture given that its projected track looks more northerly than the July conveyor belt of storms?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:50 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 700 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a broad area of
low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form Wednesday or Thursday while the low
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:03 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:Is there any chance this one could give us some remnant moisture given that its projected track looks more northerly than the July conveyor belt of storms?

god i hope so!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 01, 2016 1:45 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:Is there any chance this one could give us some remnant moisture given that its projected track looks more northerly than the July conveyor belt of storms?


There are two ridges affecting the steering of these systems right now. One over Mexico and of course the semi-permanent subtropical ridge off the coast of California. If a system gets going around 95-100W it is typical for it to be steered NW by the former and threaten Socorro Island. However, since 92E hasn't developed much, this is not the case here, as all global models (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) agree on slow development on course at around 280-290 degrees well away from any land.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby talkon » Tue Aug 02, 2016 8:56 am

SAB gives T1.5. Looks to be consolidating nicely.
20160802 1200 12.9 114.4 T1.5/1.5 92E 92E
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:44 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021139
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad low pressure system located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week
while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:48 am

Image

Looks classifiable to me.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:38 pm

02/1800 UTC 12.9N 115.7W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:06 pm

HWRF makes this a major.

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP922016  08/02/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    35    40    45    50    58    65    68    69    68    65    60    57
V (KT) LAND       30    35    40    45    50    58    65    68    69    68    65    60    57
V (KT) LGEM       30    33    36    40    44    52    59    63    64    63    60    55    50
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13    15    13    13    14    10    10     8    10    12    16    12    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -5    -3    -2    -4    -4    -2     0     0     0    -5    -1    -3
SHEAR DIR         32    44    42    39    27   353   329   300   297   286   307   301   277
SST (C)         28.0  28.1  28.0  27.8  27.5  28.0  27.5  27.2  27.6  28.2  27.3  26.6  26.3
POT. INT. (KT)   146   147   146   144   141   146   140   137   141   147   138   128   124
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.0  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     8     7     6     5     5     4     4     4
700-500 MB RH     73    72    71    71    68    63    61    61    58    59    56    56    53
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     8     8     9    10    10    11    12    13    14    13    12    10
850 MB ENV VOR     1   -13   -30   -41   -41   -39   -34   -26   -28   -25   -40   -33   -34
200 MB DIV        42    45    42    20    15    24     0    18    20    22    11     5     4
700-850 TADV       0    -1     0     1     2     2     0     0    -3    -2    -5    -7    -4
LAND (KM)       1210  1252  1315  1383  1440  1606  1812  1980  2158  2191  1882  1684  1573
LAT (DEG N)     13.1 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    115.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    15    16    15    14    14    15    14    12    12    13    12     7     5
HEAT CONTENT      17    19    19    23    19    14     7    17    15    20    17     2     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14      CX,CY: -12/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  691  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           18.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   7.  13.  18.  21.  24.  26.  26.  25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   3.   2.   5.   6.   7.   8.   7.   4.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  15.  20.  28.  35.  38.  39.  38.  35.  30.  27.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   13.1   115.0

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST     08/02/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           3.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   114.7      40.3  to  144.5       0.71           3.5
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    19.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.26           1.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    11.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.74           4.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    13.6      18.9  to    1.4       0.30           1.6
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.21           0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    32.8     -11.0  to  135.3       0.30           0.8
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   115.0     638.0  to  -68.2       0.74           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.0       2.1  to   -1.7       0.55          -0.6
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.6
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  24% is   1.9 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   1.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     9.4%   24.3%   16.0%   10.0%    0.0%   11.9%   12.5%
    Logistic:     9.9%   31.1%   14.2%    7.6%    4.4%   12.8%   10.9%
    Bayesian:     0.2%   23.2%   11.9%    3.7%    1.5%    5.9%    2.2%
   Consensus:     6.5%   26.2%   14.0%    7.1%    2.0%   10.2%    8.5%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST     08/02/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS, MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 115.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Satellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest
of mainland Mexico has become better organized. ASCAT data
indicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding
features forming around the surface center. Thus tropical cyclone
advisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and
the ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Gradual
strengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone
remains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid-
level humidity. The official forecast is a bit higher than the
model consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this
season.

ASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion
of 290/15. A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is
expected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over
the next few days. The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5,
which should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system
approaches the central Pacific. Track guidance is in remarkable
agreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near,
but slightly faster than, the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:48 pm

This one worries me
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:51 pm

Alyono wrote:This one worries me


Is this one another potential Hawaii threat?
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:00 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
Alyono wrote:This one worries me


Is this one another potential Hawaii threat?


quite possibly. Not sure it will be weak either. This one should not have to deal with cool water. Shear may be the only issue
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:09 pm

Alyono wrote:
JtSmarts wrote:
Alyono wrote:This one worries me


Is this one another potential Hawaii threat?


quite possibly. Not sure it will be weak either. This one should not have to deal with cool water. Shear may be the only issue


The tracks this year in that area have been very ominous, hopefully they remain shielded.
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:10 pm

Yeah. GFS and Euro don't have Ten-E as a deep storm as it nears Hawaii though.
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:13 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
Alyono wrote:
JtSmarts wrote:
Is this one another potential Hawaii threat?


quite possibly. Not sure it will be weak either. This one should not have to deal with cool water. Shear may be the only issue


The tracks this year in that area have been very ominous, hopefully they remain shielded.


From 2014 - really. That +PDO is bad news for Hawaii worse than previously thought. A lot of pro mets and analysts ignored it when making forecasts for the eastern pacific basin.
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:28 pm

I'm mildly intrigued at this point. Yes, the GFS and ECMWF brings this near Hawaii around day 8ish as a weakening system, but the global models could easily be too low here. The GFDL calls for 70 knots, while the last 2 HWRF runs have brought this to major hurricane intensity at around day 3, and only slight weakening thereafter. The good news is that the ridge modeled by the ECMWF is not that strong, and a stronger system is less likely to be steered W or WSW by the low level flow, thus leaving the door open for the system to pass north of Hawaii if there's something left of it by that time.
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Re: EPAC: TEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Yeah. GFS and Euro don't have Ten-E as a deep storm as it nears Hawaii though.


Neither of them have a handle at all on this. See how pitiful their representations are

I wouldn't rule out a Flossie type intensity
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