EPAC: IVETTE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 04, 2016 2:17 pm

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2016 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:09:29 N Lon : 126:58:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1000.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 4.0
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:21 pm

Image

Well organized but not very strong
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:28 pm

Yeah. I'd go with 45kts though since the LLC continues to slowly tuck under the CDO.
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2016

Vertical shear over Ivette is gradually decreasing, and the
low-level center is now embedded beneath a persistent CDO feature.
A recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum winds are now near 45
kt, which is supported by an average of subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates. Ivette may finally be starting the
gradual intensification trend that has been forecast, and the
intensity guidance indicates that strengthening should continue for
the next 48 hours while sea surface temperatures are warm and
vertical shear is low. Most of the models continue to keep Ivette
below hurricane strength, but the NHC intensity forecast still
makes the cyclone a hurricane in 48 hours, which is supported by
the Florida State Superensemble and the SHIPS model. After 48
hours, increasing shear and lower oceanic heat content should cause
fast weakening through day 5.

The ASCAT pass was useful in helping to reposition Ivette's center,
and the initial motion estimate is now 270/12 kt. The subtropical
ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer Ivette
westward for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, a break in the ridge
to the northeast of Hawaii should cause the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward and decelerate. The updated NHC track forecast
is adjusted a little southward during the first 3 days to account
for the refinement of the initial position. Otherwise, it lies
very close to the multi-model consensus in the middle of a tightly
packed guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.7N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.8N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.0N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.1N 134.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 17.4N 137.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
800 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2016

Though it may sound like a broken record, Ivette still is
struggling to intensify and is showing the detrimental effects of
vertical shear. The low-level center appears to be on the northwest
side of the small area of cold cloud tops, consistent with some
west-northwesterly shear as shown in the SHIPS diagnostics and the
CIMSS analyses. Yet, the deep-layer vertical shear is only 5-10
kt, which usually is conducive for intensification. Perhaps it is
because of the small size of Ivette - tropical-storm-force winds
only out to 60 nm at most - which makes it more susceptible to
relatively small amounts of shear. A blend of the TAFB, SAB, and
CIMSS Dvorak current intensity estimates gives 45 kt, which is
unchanged from the previous advisory. An earlier ASCAT scatterometer
pass confirmed the small size of Ivette.

Ivette has about two days left to intensify under what appear to be
conducive environmental conditions. After a couple days, the SSTs
cool and the low-level moisture decreases, but still at levels that
could support intensification. By days four and five, however, the
vertical shear should reach at least 20 kt due to an upper-level
trough approaching Ivette. Gradual to steady intensification is
thus expected to about 36-48 hours with gradual to steady weakening
thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to a blend of the
SHIPS statistical technique and the COAMPS regional dynamical model
and is slightly less than that predicted in the previous advisory.
Given the poor intensity forecasts thus far, this prediction has a
large uncertainty.

Ivette is moving toward the west at 12 kt, primarily being steered
by the deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward out of
Mexico. The tropical cyclone should begin bending toward the
west-northwest in a couple days as it attempts to round the western
periphery of the ridge. By day four or five, Ivette should turn
back toward the west as the decaying system is advected in the
low-level tradewind flow. All of the reliable models are in close
agreement and the NHC track forecast - based upon the TVCN track
consensus - is nearly unchanged.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.8N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.9N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 15.3N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.6N 135.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 18.0N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 18.7N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:33 am

No wonder the models were forecasting little intensification.

Seems like they might have been onto something... :roll:
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:02 am

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016

There has been little change in the convective organization of
Ivette overnight. The low-level center remains exposed to the
west and northwest of a loosely curved band of thunderstorms, due
to westerly to northwesterly shear. Subjective and objective
Dvorak T-numbers are all near T3.0, which yields an initial
wind speed of 45 kt. Although the shear is not very strong, it
appears the small size of the cyclone and perhaps some nearby dry
mid-level air in combination with the shear have prevented
intensification during the past day. The GFS-based SHIPS guidance
indicates that the shear will decrease during the next 24 hours or
so, but the ECMWF model shows a continuation of some upper-level
westerlies over Ivette. Because of these differences in the
expected upper-level winds, the NHC intensity forecast is more
uncertain than normal. The updated intensity forecast calls for
some slight strengthening during the next 36 hours, but it is lower
than the previous advisory, and it is closest to the IVCN intensity
consensus. After 48 h, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler
SSTs should cause a fairly rapid spin down of Ivette, and the
cyclone is likely to become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days.

The tropical storm is moving westward or 275/12 kt. Ivette should
turn west-northwestward in 12 to 24 hours as a deepening mid- to
upper-level trough to the north of the Hawaiian Islands weakens the
western portion of the subtropical ridge. After day 3, Ivette is
forecast to turn back westward after it weakens and is steered by
the low-level easterly trades. There remains high confidence in the
track forecast since the dynamical models continue to be in good
agreement.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 14.9N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.2N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 16.4N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 17.2N 136.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 18.5N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 19.0N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 18.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:53 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:No wonder the models were forecasting little intensification.

Seems like they might have been onto something... :roll:


EPAC needs a break if we want to see quality storms again. Warm waters are not that deep and a cool Neutral ENSO is not helping either in warming upwelled waters. I think if it weren't for that +PDO we would've had a dead season.
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:19 am

Kingarabian wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:No wonder the models were forecasting little intensification.

Seems like they might have been onto something... :roll:


EPAC needs a break if we want to see quality storms again. Warm waters are not that deep and a cool Neutral ENSO is not helping either in warming upwelled waters. I think if it weren't for that +PDO we would've had a dead season.


I agree, if it wasn't for the warm PDO it would had been a very slow July over the EPAC.
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:44 am

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Ivette continues to have a ragged appearance on satellite imagery,
and recent microwave data showed that all the deep convection is
located to the south and southeast of the center. Still, Dvorak CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the UW-CIMSS ADT, support
maintaining an intensity of 45 kt. Vertical shear does not appear
very high (about 10 kt according to SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS),
but it is from a westerly direction, which is not great for
intensification. Since sea surface temperatures remain warm, only
modest strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours. After
that time, deep-layer westerly shear increases over 20 kt, and this
should cause Ivette to weaken quickly. In fact, the NHC forecast
now calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 4
days. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it
lies close to the IVCN intensity consensus.

Ivette continues to move westward (275 degrees), but its speed has
decreased to 11 kt. Subtropical high pressure located to the north
of the cyclone is causing the current westward motion, but Ivette
is approaching a break in the ridge located northeast of Hawaii.
Therefore, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and
slow down some more very soon, with that heading continuing through
day 3. Once Ivette becomes a remnant low, it should turn westward
in the low-level trade winds. The track guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast is
very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.4N 132.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.1N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.8N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.6N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 18.8N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z 18.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 05, 2016 3:22 pm

Code: Select all

EP, 10, 2016080518,   , BEST,   0, 154N, 1314W,  50, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,   60,   40,   20,   40, 1011,  180,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, M
,
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Visible and microwave satellite imagery indicate that deep-layer
westerly shear continues to affect Ivette. However, water vapor
imagery does show cirrus expanding westward, so the shear is most
likely confined to the layer below the outflow level. Nonetheless,
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and
T3.5/55 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T5.3/53 kt.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt. Ivette is located due south of a
mid-level anticyclone, which is causing the cyclone's westward
motion. Ivette will soon be reaching the western edge of the
anticyclone, causing it to turn west-northwestward and slow down
soon while it approaches a mid- to upper-level trough northeast of
Hawaii. After day 3, the remnant low associated with Ivette should
turn westward, steered by the low-level trades. Although the ECMWF
is somewhat faster and farther south than the other models, there
is still very little spread among the guidance. The NHC track
forecast is just a little south of the multi-model consensus and
not too different from the previous forecast.

Vertical shear is probably not going to decrease, and, in fact, it
should increase to over 20 kt in about 36 hours, lasting through the
rest of the 5-day period. Ivette does appear that it will reach
warmer waters (around 29C) in about 24 hours, which could foster
just a little more strengthening. After that time, however, the
hostile shear should cause a fast weakening trend, and Ivette is
likely to become a remnant low by day 4. The global models seem to
suggest that the remnant low could degenerate into a trough by day
5, but for now the official forecast will carry a low through the
end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is very
close to the IVCN consensus and not too different from the previous
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.5N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.9N 133.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.6N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 17.2N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.9N 138.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 141.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 18.0N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:00 pm

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016

The convective structure of Ivette has not changed substantially
this evening with most of the convection limited to the northeastern
semicircle. A blend of the TAFB/SAB Dvorak, CIMSS Advanced Dvorak,
and AMSU intensity estimates indicate about 50 kt at the initial
time, unchanged from the previous advisory. Ivette remains small in
size, as indicated by the limited central dense overcast and
tropical-storm-force wind radii from CIRA/AMSU.

While Ivette remains over 28C water, the vertical shear appears to
still be disrupting the convection, as the center - like yesterday -
is occasionally showing up just west of the cirrus canopy. Even
though the shear is quite low (5 to 10 kt from the CIMSS and SHIPS
analyses), Ivette's small size and moderate intensity isn't enough
to overcome the shear's detrimental effects. The tropical storm has
about 12-24 hours of time left to intensify before the combination
of cool SSTs, dry stable air, and strong southwesterly vertical
shear kicks in. Once that combination begins, Ivette should
steadily weaken and become a remnant low in about four days and
dissipate shortly afterwards. The NHC intensity forecast, based
upon the IVCN intensity consensus technique, indicates a slight
intensification shortly before weakening commences in a couple days.
It is of note that the only model to show significant strengthening
- COAMPS, boosting Ivette to about 60 kt - has been the best
performing guidance during the cyclone's lifetime.

There have been several helpful microwave images of Ivette providing
an accurate assessment of the system's center. These indicate that
the tropical storm has not yet turned west-northwestward, as Ivette
continues moving westward at 9 kt, due the steering influence of a
mid-level subtropical ridge to its north. Despite the current
motion, Ivette should turn toward the west-northwestward shortly, as
it begins to round the western periphery of the ridge. However, in
about three days, the tropical cyclone should bend back toward west
as it is advected along in the easterly trade winds. The NHC track
forecast is based upon the tightly clustered members of
the multi-model ensemble (TVCN) and is somewhat south of the track
from the previous advisory at 12 and 24 hours because of the
unexpected continuation of westward motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.4N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.8N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.4N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 18.2N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 18.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby Darvince » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:03 am

*pokes storm* Do something, Ivette :lol:
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:39 am

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Ivette is feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical
shear and dry air entrainment, as conventional and microwave
satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center is now
displaced to the southwest of the convection. The initial
intensity remains 50 kt in agreement with various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. However, this could be a
little generous.

The initial motion is 280/9, as the storm continues to be steered by
the subtropical ridge to its north. Ivette should turn toward the
west-northwestward shortly, as it nears the western periphery of the
ridge. However, in about three days, the tropical cyclone should
turn westward as the weakening system is steered by the low-level
easterly trade winds. The new track forecast is little changed from
the previous forecast and lies near the TVCN consensus model.

Although Ivette is expected to remain over 26C-28C sea surface
temperatures during the forecast period, the combination of
increasing shear and abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery
are expected to cause the storm to weaken. The intensity forecast
no longer shows any intensification. Instead, the initial
intensity is maintained through 24 hours in general agreement with
the intensity guidance, followed by a slow weakening trend. The
dynamical models are in good agreement that Ivette will weaken to a
trough by 120 hours, so the forecast calls for the cyclone to
dissipate by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.8N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.2N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.9N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.7N 138.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.3N 139.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 18.5N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:01 am

No more strengthening anticipated.

I certainly thought this one would be stronger but as is pointed out often, the EPAC needs a break to get quality fish storms again.
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:11 am

It's being ripped apart by shear and dry air. I doubt it has 50kt winds now. No squalls anywhere near the low-level center.
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:40 am

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016

West-southwesterly shear is really taking a toll on Ivette. SHIPS
guidance is indicating that the shear has increased to near 15 kt,
and a recent SSMI overpass supports this by showing the low-level
center well removed from the deep convection. Satellite intensity
estimates have generally decreased, and the initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and
SAB. Although Ivette is beginning to move over very warm waters
near 29C, the vertical shear is forecast to increase further during
the next couple of days. Therefore, gradual weakening is
anticipated, and Ivette is likely to lose organized convection and
become a remnant low in about 3 days. The remnant low is then
expected to degenerate to a trough by day 5. With the exception of
the GFDL, all of the intensity models show weakening, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered a bit compared to the previous
forecast.

Ivette has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of
285/9 kt. A mid-level low located west of Ivette near 17N142W and
a subtropical ridge along 26N should cause the cyclone to continue
moving west-northwestward as long as it's maintaining deep
convection. Once the convection vanishes, the shallow remnant low
is expected to turn westward in the low-level trades. The NHC
track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus and is a
little faster than the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.1N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.6N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.3N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.1N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.4N 141.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 18.5N 144.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 18.0N 148.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2016 3:59 pm

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Visible satellite imagery shows that Ivette's center is located
near the western edge of the deep convection due to 15 kt of
west-southwesterly shear. There has been little change in the
structure of the cyclone, and Dvorak estimates remain 3.0 from TAFB
and SAB. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Vertical
shear is expected to increase to over 20 kt in about 24 hours,
lasting through the end of the forecast period. Weakening is
forecast, and the global models suggest that Ivette could lose
organized deep convection in 48-72 hours and open up into a trough
by 96 hours. The NHC forecast is therefore updated to show Ivette
as a remnant low on day 3 and dissipated on day 4.

Ivette is moving west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. This heading
should continue for the next 36 hours while Ivette moves between a
mid-level low to its west and the subtropical ridge to its north.
After that time, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn
westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. The NHC track
forecast has been nudged northward from the previous forecast
between 24-72 hours and is very close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.3N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 138.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.3N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 18.6N 141.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 18.4N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: IVETTE - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that all of Ivette's
deep convection has been sheared away by moderate-to-strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear, leaving the low-level circulation
center fully exposed more than 80 n mi southwest of any convection.
Satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB have decreased as a
result, and the latest UW-CIMSS intensity estimate is T2.7/39 kt.
Allowing for some vortex spin down since the previous advisory
intensity of 45 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt
for this advisory.

Ivette has continued to move west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. This
general motion should continue for the next 36 hours or so while the
cyclone moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge around
139W-140W longitude. After that time, however, Ivette is expected to
be a vertically shallow remnant low pressure system that will be
steered westward and then west-southwestward by the low-level
tradewind flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an
extension of the previous advisory track and lies a little south of
the multi-model consensus TVCN due to more rapid weakening than
previously expected.

Ivette still has a very robust low-level circulation and is moving
over near-28C SSTs, so redevelopment of deep convection seems likely
tonight after 0600Z during the convective maximum period, which
should allow the cyclone to retain tropical storm status. However,
by 24 hours and beyond, strong southwesterly shear of 25 kt or more,
along with considerably drier mid-level air and SSTs of around 26C,
should cause any remaining convection to dissipate. As a result,
Ivette is forecast to become a remnant low pressure system by 36
hours, with dissipation expected by 96 hours, if not sooner. The
official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the SHIPS and
LGEM intensity model solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.7N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.2N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.9N 139.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.4N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z 18.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z 17.9N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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