WPAC: OMAIS - Post Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#21 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 04, 2016 11:46 am

Heh, streamlines from a GPM from about the same time as ASCAT shows a competing center (or at the last notable low level cyclonic motion) to the northeast of the ASCAT center, near 21.5*N, 149.0*E, on the western edge of the northeast convective cluster at the time. Taking this into account, I might adjust to a centroid fix again.

Image

An older F-18 pass from around 09Z actually shows the two centers pretty well, with perhaps a slight bias to the SW center. Based on the differences between the two passes, it appears that the two centers are rotating around each other while gradually drawing nearer, which would also support a centroid fix, which I would place at 20.25*N, 147.5*E or thereabouts.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:14 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED
SATELITTE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH TWO
MAIN AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER BROAD AND CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A 041113Z
METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS WITH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 85 TO 90 NM ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND EVIDENCE THE
WIND FIELD IS CONTRACTING. SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO SHOWS GALE FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
BEING CONSIDERED WITH CAUTION DUE TO THEIR KNOWN INACCURACIES WHEN
USED WITH MONSOON DEPRESSIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 31 CELSIUS, AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW IS
PRESENT ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER.
CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AS THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND CONTRACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH IS ALSO EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. A TRACK SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED AROUND TAU 36 TO 48 AS THE STEERING RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH AN ACCOMPANIED PERIOD OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72. MIDLATITUDE
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIME ALLOWING FOR
SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE ESTABLISHING A TRACK TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS DUE TO ENHANCED
OUTFLOW FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH BEING OFFSET BY COOLER SSTS.
UNUSUALLY BROAD WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER IN THE POSITION AND TIMING
OF THE TRANSITION BETWEEN STEERING RIDGES AND THE EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEFORE ROUNDING NORTHEASTWARD. ECMFW AND JGSM
FAVOR A TRACK MORE WESTWARD, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION FAVORS A
TRACK MORE EASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#23 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:14 pm

TXPQ24 KNES 041539
TCSWNP

A. 07W (OMAIS)

B. 04/1430Z

C. 19.6N

D. 148.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONFLICTING INFORMATION ABOUT STORM CENTER LOCATION. 1221Z
GPM DATA SUGGESTS POSSIBLE CENTER NEAR 21.5N 145.8E AND 0903Z AS
WELL AS ASCAT DATA SUGGEST A SOUTHERN CENTER NEAR 19.5N 146E. FAVORED
NORTHERN CENTER LOCATION GIVEN PREVIOUS TRACK HISTORY BUT GIVEN THE
LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN WHICH BOTH CENTERS EXIST, WOULD EXPECT FAIR
AMOUNT OF RELOCATION IN FUTURE FIXES. BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT BUT SINCE DVORAK TECHNIQUE DOSE NOT HANDLE
MONSOON DEPRESSIONS ADEQUATELY INTENSITY MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

TPPN10 PGTW 041831

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07W (OMAIS)

B. 04/1800Z

C. 18.95N

D. 146.03E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. SYSTEM STILL HAS MONSOON DEPRESSION-
LIKE CHARACTERISTICS WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. CNVCTN TO THE
SW BROADLY WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET
AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
ASCT - 04/1114Z 18.77N 145.77E


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#24 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:33 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 042146
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAIS (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072016
800 AM CHST FRI AUG 5 2016

...TROPICAL STORM OMAIS DRIFTING NORTHWARD SLOWLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 146.2E

ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 305 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 430 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO ISLAND AND
ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISHIMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAIS WAS
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES EAST.
OMAIS WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2 MPH. OMAIS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS COURSE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. OMAIS IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON OVER THE
WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 165 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF OMAIS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM CHST.

$$

STANKO
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#25 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:38 pm

TXPQ24 KNES 042112
TCSWNP

A. 07W (OMAIS)

B. 04/2030Z

C. 22.1N

D. 146.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...BOTH SHORT WAVE IR AND RECENT VIS IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
A LLCC HAS FORMED AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE CURVED BAND. NO OTHER LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AREAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED. CURVED BROKEN BANDING OF
.4 YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:55 pm

The overall circulation certainly looks much better based on microwave and now visible.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#27 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:06 pm

Image
Image

Omais from birth has been very large and convection wise very impressive...

Flooding reported all over the Mariana Islands.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#28 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:04 pm

We see these types of storms sometimes in the WPAC, a large system that doesn't have a central overcast on the center. This is probably dumping a lot of rain in the islands.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#29 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:02 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER BROAD AND CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A
042137Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT STILL REMAINS BROAD WITH DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION AND IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE. A RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATION IN THE REGION ALSO REPORTED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.
RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES ARE STILL LOWER
THAN THE ASSESSED INTENSITY, AND ARE ATTRIBUTED TO KNOWN
INACCURACIES OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WHEN USED WITH MONSOON
DEPRESSIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE
SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 31
CELSIUS, AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW IS PRESENT ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AS THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND CONTRACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH IS ALSO EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. A TRACK SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED AROUND TAU 36 AS THE STEERING RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72. MIDLATITUDE
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIME ALLOWING FOR
SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE ESTABLISHING A TRACK TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS DUE TO ENHANCED
OUTFLOW FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH BEING OFFSET BY COOLER SSTS.
UNUSUALLY BROAD WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER IN THE POSITION AND TIMING
OF THE TRANSITION BETWEEN STEERING RIDGES AND THE EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEFORE ROUNDING NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. NAVGEM AND JGSM ARE FAVORING A WESTWARD
TRACK, WHILE GFS IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#30 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:33 am

galaxy401 wrote:We see these types of storms sometimes in the WPAC, a large system that doesn't have a central overcast on the center. This is probably dumping a lot of rain in the islands.


Guam alone from Aug 1-4 got 10.08 inches...More than what we usually see at this time of year at 1.97 inch.

The Northern Marianas, Saipan and Tinian, got the brunt of this massive rain machine. No data out yet.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#31 Postby stormwise » Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:45 am

Image
The name is a classic :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#32 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:59 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SMALL MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LLCC. OVERALL,
THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POSITION
REMAINS BASED ON THE CENTROID. THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN A 050535Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS FORMATIVE SHALLOW
CURVED BANDING JUST NORTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK
ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A 042351Z BYU HIRES
IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA OF 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW (ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST), AND WARM SST (30 TO 31C). TS 07W IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AFTER TAU 72, WITH
A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 260NM AT TAU
72. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR TAU 96 THEN SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120. TS 07W WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE RECURVE POINT EAST OF TOKYO
NEAR TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Omais

#33 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:03 am

Image

Incredible burst of convection nearing -100C...

Fun fact, Omais totally fitting it's name means "wandering around" in Palauan. Out to sea... :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Omais

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:02 am

If you really want wandering around, look no further than next week's model runs, both the solutions and the models themselves trying to make sense of the madness. :P

JMA has upped to a Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1605 (Omais)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 5 August 2016

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 5 August>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N23°00' (23.0°)
E147°50' (147.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 600 km (325 NM)
W 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°55' (24.9°)
E147°50' (147.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°50' (26.8°)
E147°20' (147.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 7 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°30' (29.5°)
E146°10' (146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°25' (33.4°)
E144°35' (144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Omais

#35 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:03 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 051834

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 23.46N

D. 147.38E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.00 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

HART

TXPQ24 KNES 051501
TCSWNP

A. 07W (OMAIS)

B. 05/1430Z

C. 22.8N

D. 147.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET IS A 4.0 BASED
OFF RAPID DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

05/1146Z 22.3N 146.8E AMSU


...MICHAEL
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Omais

#36 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:18 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE SYMMETRICALLY
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051849Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
LLCC. DESPITE THE LARGE WIND FIELD, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF 07W
HAS BECOME MORE LIKE A TRADITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, SO DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUBSEQUENTLY ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS. BOTH THE
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE REPRESENTATION SUGGEST THAT 07W CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A BROAD WIND
FIELD, WITH THE RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS MAXIMIZING TO THE EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION HAS INCREASED
GIVEN THE MORE SYMMETRIC REPRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT,
WHERE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. TS 07W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 24 TO 36, AFTER WHICH THE STEERING
INFLUENCE WILL TRANSITION TO THAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A
SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE STR BRIEFLY
BUILDS TO THE EAST OF 07W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY UNTIL IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS BEFORE TAU 72. LIMITING FACTORS THAT MAY INHIBIT MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ARE THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS THE
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.
GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND THE CORRESPONDING
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SECONDARY VERTICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
07W, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE INTENSE TO THE EAST OF
THE VORTEX AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE SUBSEQUENTLY GREATER IN
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, GALE-FORCE GUSTS
MAY STILL BE A POSSIBILITY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF JAPAN
GIVEN THE TIGHT HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MAY EXIST AS 07W
PASSES TO THE EAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR TAU 72. IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION BY TAU 120
AFTER INTERACTING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHEAST OF JAPAN AT THAT
TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Omais

#37 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:50 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 764 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, A 052123Z SSMIS IMAGE, AND A
060014Z ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE 060014Z
ASCAT PASS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD
REMAIN VERY BROAD, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM
THE CENTER, PARTICULARLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE. ADDITIONAL
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS,
INCLUDING IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION, IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BASED
ON THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PACKAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE, SWINGING A BIT WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE
AXIS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT NEARS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. HOWEVER, THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AT THE
CORE. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 07W WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW PATTERN. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION
INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Omais

#38 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 6:47 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 731 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND
INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL SOMEWHAT
BROAD, A 060420Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MORE COMPACT AND
ORGANIZED MICROWAVE EYE THAN PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES. THIS
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LLCC SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION AND SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE
SMALLER MICROWAVE EYE ALSO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). HOWEVER, THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE CYCLONE IS PROHIBITING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION.
TS 07W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. EXPECT A
SMALL BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STR AXIS
NEAR TAU 48. DURING THIS TIME, TS OMAIS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALBEIT AT A SLOW RATE,
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CYCLONE. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC AND THE WIND FIELD WILL
BECOME SMALLER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND
INCREASING VWS. ADDITIONALLY, TS 07W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 07W WILL COMPLETE ETT AS A STRONG
COLD-CORE LOW AS IT EMBEDS WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK AND HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Omais

#39 Postby NotoSans » Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:08 pm

SAB now classifies it as a monsoon depression.

TXPQ24 KNES 061533
TCSWNP

A. 07W (OMAIS)

B. 06/1430Z

C. 26.4N

D. 147.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. MONSOON DEPRESSION

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION
THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CONVECTION AND STRONGEST WINDS EXISTING
IN BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE CANNOT
ADEQUATELY ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF SUCH A SYSTEM AND THEREFORE THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL BULLETIN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MICHAEL
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Re: WPAC: Severe Tropical Storm Omais

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:05 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (OMAIS) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FURTHER DETERIORATION OF DEEP CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO
THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE WEST. A
061126Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS THE LARGE EXTENT OF THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH 34 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING
OUT ALMOST 300 NM. THE DECAY OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LACK OF ANY
FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC IS READILY APPARENT IN A MOSAIC OF
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW
FIX, AND SUPPORTED BY 061701Z AMSU AND 061648Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE OBSERVED WEAKENING SINCE THE PRIOR WARNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAIR, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY THE EFFECTS
OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TS 07W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
AFTER WHICH IT WILL ROUND THE STR AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
MODELS HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, HOWEVER,
LIGHT VWS AND INCREASING OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MAY ALLOW VERY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TS 07W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48
AS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE TROUGH AND THE LLCC MOVES OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS. AS
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT
AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC FLOW
BY TAU 72. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, GIVING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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