WPAC: INVEST 99W

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euro6208
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WPAC: INVEST 99W

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:45 am

99W INVEST 160806 0600 22.5N 127.1E WPAC 15 1010

Some broad turning evident east of China with a possible LLC south of Okinawa...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:07 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.5N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN. A 061307Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE OF FLARING DEE
CONVECTION LEADING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROXIMATELY 370
NM TO THE NORTH. 850 MB VORTICITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW IS
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY IS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 20-25 KNOTS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. DESPITE WARM 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
HAMPERED BY THE ENHANCED VWS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK
LLCC THAT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 06, 2016 6:46 pm

Meh, not feeling this one. Its origins actually lie from an MCS that moved off the Chinese coast and into the East China Sea a couple days ago. The subtropical jet is still howling over it (although is it marginally sheltered near a trough axis), and it should head back towards the Chinese coast in a day or two.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:35 pm

In the meantime at least, JMA has designated 99W a tropical depression.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 07, 2016 5:53 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY
195 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT AND
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH DUE TO 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 070133Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWED AN
ORGANIZED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THE LLCC DUE TO GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSISTED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK LLCC THAT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE WELL
DEFINED LLCC AND MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 07, 2016 5:54 am

TXPQ25 KNES 070852
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 07/0830Z

C. 23.9N

D. 127.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:38 am

EURO still brings weak 999mb system into Eastern China...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 07, 2016 4:06 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 071505
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 24.5N

D. 126.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEAR MATRIX USED. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS
THAN 1.25 DEGREE FROM ALMOST NON-EXISTENT COLD OVERCAST YIELDS DT OF 1.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
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